Your Ex(spec)tations on 2516 Pine

Posted by Dave Fratello on Friday, September 23rd, 2011 at 4:33am.

What will the first of the 5 new Speedy Speckies sell for?

2516 Pine
That was our question to you this week, after 2516 Pine posted a deal. (See "First Speedy Speckie Snagged.")

It's the first spec home to sell in a generation in about 3 years in the Tree Section, possibly signalling a revival of spec building, or possibly signalling nothing. TBD.

The (pending) sale has the greatest relevance for the inventory of the selfsame builder/investor group. What will the other 4 go for?

Yet, at the same time, the eventual closed price is of great relevance to anyone contemplating a resale of a newer Tree Section home.

Meanwhile, the economics of a build & sale are relevant to the question of whether a new wave of spec development could loom on the horizon, or not.

So, assuming a proper arm's-length, open-market transaction, what did MBC readers think this one would sell for?

A near- majority of 48% of those voting said $1.7m- $1.8m. This assumes a discount of 5-10% off the list price of a newly completed home. (2516 Pine was last at $1.899m.)

Another 13% hung closer to list price ($1.899m +/-5%). This brings the total expecting more than $1.7m to 61%. That's nearly a veto-proof majority.

We should be clear here that we have never asked readers to gauge the market value of these spec homes. We're now asking a narrower question: Now that this home has a buyer, what do you think they've offered? That question will tend to yield a more bullish number. But that's the right angle with a buyer locked in.

Our thanks to readers who participated in this poll.

A lot of us are shaking our heads and wondering what's next for the Tree Section spec market, and the eventual close at 2516 Pine is going to be a significant marker. Assuming they hold this deal together, everyone in the Trees will be dealing with the ramifications for some time.
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