Your Ex(spec)tations on 2516 Pine

By Dave Fratello September 23rd, 2011.

What will the first of the 5 new Speedy Speckies sell for?

2516 Pine
That was our question to you this week, after 2516 Pine posted a deal. (See "First Speedy Speckie Snagged.")

It's the first spec home to sell in a generation in about 3 years in the Tree Section, possibly signalling a revival of spec building, or possibly signalling nothing. TBD.

The (pending) sale has the greatest relevance for the inventory of the selfsame builder/investor group. What will the other 4 go for?

Yet, at the same time, the eventual closed price is of great relevance to anyone contemplating a resale of a newer Tree Section home.

Meanwhile, the economics of a build & sale are relevant to the question of whether a new wave of spec development could loom on the horizon, or not.

So, assuming a proper arm's-length, open-market transaction, what did MBC readers think this one would sell for?

A near- majority of 48% of those voting said $1.7m- $1.8m. This assumes a discount of 5-10% off the list price of a newly completed home. (2516 Pine was last at $1.899m.)

Another 13% hung closer to list price ($1.899m +/-5%). This brings the total expecting more than $1.7m to 61%. That's nearly a veto-proof majority.

We should be clear here that we have never asked readers to gauge the market value of these spec homes. We're now asking a narrower question: Now that this home has a buyer, what do you think they've offered? That question will tend to yield a more bullish number. But that's the right angle with a buyer locked in.

Our thanks to readers who participated in this poll.

A lot of us are shaking our heads and wondering what's next for the Tree Section spec market, and the eventual close at 2516 Pine is going to be a significant marker. Assuming they hold this deal together, everyone in the Trees will be dealing with the ramifications for some time.

Please see our blog disclaimer.

Latest Listings Among
Manhattan Beach Homes For Sale