What will the first of the 5 new Speedy Speckies sell for?
That was our question to you this week, after 2516 Pine
posted a deal. (See "First Speedy Speckie Snagged
It's the first spec home to sell
in a generation
in about 3 years in the Tree Section, possibly signalling a revival of spec building, or possibly signalling nothing. TBD.
The (pending) sale has the greatest relevance for the inventory of the selfsame builder/investor group. What will the other 4 go for?
Yet, at the same time, the eventual closed price is of great relevance to anyone contemplating a resale of a newer Tree Section home.
Meanwhile, the economics of a build & sale are relevant to the question of whether a new wave of spec development could loom on the horizon, or not.
So, assuming a proper arm's-length, open-market transaction, what did MBC readers think this one would sell for?
A near- majority of 48%
of those voting said $1.7m- $1.8m
. This assumes a discount of 5-10% off the list price of a newly completed home. (2516 Pine was last at $1.899m.)
Another 13% hung closer to list price ($1.899m +/-5%). This brings the total expecting more than $1.7m to 61%
. That's nearly a veto-proof majority.
We should be clear here that we have never asked readers to gauge the market value of these spec homes. We're now asking a narrower question: Now that this home has a buyer, what do you think they've offered?
That question will tend to yield a more bullish number. But that's the right angle with a buyer locked in.
Our thanks to readers who participated in this poll.
A lot of us are shaking our heads and wondering what's next for the Tree Section spec market, and the eventual close at 2516 Pine is going to be a significant marker. Assuming they hold this deal together, everyone in the Trees will be dealing with the ramifications for some time.