DOM Champs

By Dave Fratello | June 3rd, 2009
It seems that roughly half the sales these days are from new listings, while much inventory lingers and lingers.

So, let's define "linger." We're thinking anything that can be counted in the hundreds of days on market would qualify.

At some point, a listing begins to harden like rock. This is dangerous. No clue from the outside world can penetrate the protective shield that keeps the price out of whack, and soon the listing may actually fossilize.

There are startling examples from East MB, which we'll get to, but let's look at this in a more positive light if we can. We'll scan the local market for SFRs west of Sepulveda and see which homes have lingered longest. They're the DOM Champs. The winners, please! –

Hill Section

Champ: 815 2nd (5br/5ba, 4625 sq. ft.) is a new home that MBC once noted as the "First Hill Newbie to Go Short" (i.e., a short sale on new construction).

As of June 3, it hits 475 DOM and is emblematic of a problem with big-dollar spec construction in the Hills. Demand has evaporated, the original calculations don't work anymore for many speckies and supply is nearly endless for people with the millions and an inclination toward the Hills. On this one, busy 2nd is a strike and a choppy layout with no real yard are dragging the property.

Runners-up: 218 N. Dianthus (4br/4ba, 6100 sq. ft.) also suffers from the new-construction problem in the Hills. A gorgeous, huge home that takes good advantage of a hilltop location, the property did start at least $2.25m too high at $6.75m, and is now at $4.499m, with 453 DOM.

We don't know exactly how to count 617 6th (5br/6ba, 5725 sq. ft.), which has been on and off the market (never gone long) and has some pre-completion DOM factored in our records, which now show 439 DOM. A recent re-list came with a price cut to $4.699m. Otherwise, 3rd place goes to 918 10th, a serial re-lister, now at 391 DOM if we count back to the first listing May 8, 2008. (The MLS shows almost 2 months less by CDOM.)

Sand Section

Champ: 425 26th (5br/5ba, 4400 sq. ft.) is new construction, an Asian-inspired contemporary, and one of just a dozen or so homes on the plateau up above Grandview School. Some of the 436 CDOM as of June 3 are pre-completion, but constant price adjustments have also been necessary. What began as a $3.75m listing is now at $2.698m, and the listing now explains, and challenges:
Major price reduction again. If you can show me a better Ocean view SFR new construction value on a full lot at the beach please show me.
Great house. We can't show you one that's lasted longer.

Runner-up: 317 5th, a South End walkstreet contemporary of 90s vintage, began at $3.2m fully 14 months ago (403 DOM now) and only recently began adjusting – at $2.875m currently. If they've missed a weekend of being open we're not aware of many, but maybe that's not how houses sell.

Tree Section

Champ: For once, new construction does not lead the race, as 3309 Pacific (4br/5ba, 3500 sq. ft.) takes the crown in the Trees. As MBC noted in "A Long, Strange Listing," this home has been for sale now in parts of each of the past 4 years, 2005-2009. As we said then:
It's the beacon in the fog. The Rock of Gibraltar. Old Faithful.

3309 Pacific is, quite simply, always for sale.
We've seen prices as high as $1.799m and the listing is down to $1.249m. That's a lot of house for the money, but listings that don't sell have a way of not selling. In this case we think people just do not like the house. Now at 595 DOM.

Runners-up: The new home at 757 30th is in some ways plenty pleasant, and that sunny location on a quiet street should help. There's a buyer now and the property is in "backup offer" status at $1.799m and 530+ DOM, but a previous escrow failed, so we decided to mention it here.

Next runner-up among speckies is 3309 Poinsettia, at 445 DOM despite a recent bogus re-list, and among used homes there's 633 15th, "Santa's House" on a double lot across for American Martyrs, now at $4.295m and at 357 CDOM, by MRMLS, despite re-lists during its $1.2m worth of chops.

Bonus runner-up, possible substitute Champ: 2509 Palm, the failed speckie, failed auction home and quickie REO, now owned by an investor/would-be flipper, carries a tag of 663 CDOM in the MRMLS database.

That reflects the property's ancient history, though many would view this as "new" to the database since it's got a new owner. Which is it? New or crusty? Champ or runner-up?

East MB

Grand Champions: These are stunning. By going east of Sepulveda, we find 2 properties with DOM above 800 – one of them near 900.

MBC does not track East MB listings with any regularity, and yet it seems that we could have begun tracking 1154 2nd (6br/4ba, 3575 sq. ft., $1.699m) and 1232 21st (5br/5ba, 3475 sq. ft., $1.750m) since MBC launched in March 2007.

We don't have the full price histories, or re-list histories, but the MRMLS database tags these properties with 894 and 801 CDOM as of June 3.

The 2nd St. listing urges you to "come take a fresh look," while the 21st St. listing chirps that it's "BACK ON MARKET" within the past month, but it doesn't look like either property has missed much time over the years.

Both properties blow away the competition west of Hwy. 1. But there can be only one winner. The envelope here says 1154 2nd, nearing the 900 DOM threshold, officially takes the citywide title.


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