Inventory Higher in 2015; Prices, Too

By Dave Fratello | January 7th, 2016

It sure feels like a shortage of real estate inventory in Manhattan Beach has been chronic.

But data show that the situation loosened up a bit in the second half of 2015.

To start with, well, now: Comparing only the last 3 years to each other, 2015 saw a much higher balance of year-end inventory (53) than was seen in prior years.

There were more than twice as many post-holiday leftovers at the end of 2015 as were seen at the close of 2013 (25).

As you can see in our chart here, the bump in inventory had begun to grow in July and hit a new (recent) peak in August, when total inventory hit 82 listings, 11 higher than the year before and 12 higher than the peak for 2013.

Consistently from August till December, there were always about 10-20 more listings active in Manhattan Beach than there had been in the two prior years.

Now, here's where the discussion gets interesting.

We had more inventory in 2015 and fewer sales. Could that mean demand is flagging? (Don't answer yet.)

Well, prices rose.

The final sales totals and median prices for Manhattan Beach homes the last few years:

  • 2013: 427 Sales, Median Price: $1.628M
  • 2014: 419 Sales, Median Price: $1.900M (+17% yoy)
  • 2015: 358 Sales, Median Price: $2.055M (+8% yoy)

This was an outcome that we previewed with a late-2015 post, "Sales Down, Prices Up So Far in 2015."

The data didn't move much from those you see in the chart for that post. (Although that chart does go back to 2008, for those readers who like a deep dive.)

As we gear up for rain-soaked Spring selling season, the quick takeaways are:

- We begin 2016 with more inventory

– Last year saw 15% fewer sales overall

– Prices rose last year, but half as fast as the year before

So are you ready for a flatter, wetter market, with more choices?

That's where the data point, before anything actually happens.

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