Is MB Inventory Often 'Top Heavy'?

By Dave Fratello | May 21st, 2019

We posed a question earlier in the month and wanted to come back to it.

The question was whether the Manhattan Beach real estate market is currently "top heavy," possibly featuring more high-priced listings than demand can absorb. (See "Top Heavy? More Than 1/3rd of MB Listings Are $4M"," May 7.)

At the time, we cut the market into sub-$4M and over-$4M tiers, finding that 36% of active listings were priced in that upper tier.

Wasn't it curious, though, that in 2018, only 15% of sales had closed over $4M?

This was a hint that supply might be out of line with demand in 2019, but we were careful to say that we needed another look at the numbers.

With a new data run, we find something illuminating: Higher-end inventory seems to often swell quite a bit above the observed percentage of sales that eventually close at the higher end.

In other words, maybe it isn't so strange to find a disconnect, where a lot of the active market is higher-priced, even though a smaller percentage of sales by year end will actually fall in that higher-priced tier.

Consider some data. (These charts were produced for a forthcoming MBC report on the Manhattan Beach real estate market, which you'll hear more about soon.)

First, let's look at last year's sales totals for all of Manhattan Beach.

The two green areas show the percentage of 391 sales in Manhattan Beach last year that were priced at $3.5M and above.

It's a total of 21%, and it is the highest share ever recorded in Manhattan Beach.

You can see that the "entry level" of homes, priced up to $1.5M, made up just 15% of sales last year.

In 2012, that "low" price tier saw 55% of sales locally. Big change.

Take a look at how the high end has grown as a share of the local housing market.

In just the past 5 years, sales over $3.5M have doubled to 20-21%.

This market segment has grown while the lower end has shrunk considerably.

We kept the left-edge scale for this chart at 60% for a reason.

That's because we'll now use the same scale to look at inventory.

As of May 15 each year, the share of active inventory priced over $3.5M has always been considerably higher, in the 30s and 40s, and fully 50% as of May 15, 2019.

(These figures all come from our published MB Market Updates from each year.)

Some observations now.

First, it's still remarkable that half of the Manhattan Beach market is priced over $3.5M today. Standing on its own, that's an amazing stat.

Second, as we stated in the lead-up to these charts, it appears to not be very strange to have a disconnect between inventory levels by price tier and closed sales, at the end of the year, by price tier. Looking back, it seems that there's always a lot more for sale at the high end than one might expect.

Third, we'd like to know, as you might: Where the heck do all of these $3.5M+ listings go, if they're not sold?

It's possible this is a mid-Spring phenomenon. That is, sellers are all bringing out their higher-end offerings during prime time, hoping to sell quickly. But the reality is that pricier listings always take longer to sell. This may be an artificial "bump" in inventory at this time of year that works itself out by year-end.

Meantime, lots more homes priced under $3.5M are selling quickly, not sitting around on the market.

There's also a chance that higher-priced listings are disproportionately likely to cancel after failing to sell.

We'll take another look at these data and track some listings in a future report.

Meantime, enjoy a look at the latest $3.5M+ listings in Manhattan Beach. (At the time this post went live, there were 62 active; we can only display 48 within this blog post. Email subscribers will need to view this post online to see the listings.)

Newest Manhattan Beach Home Listings Priced $3.5M+

Welcome To This Quintessential Manhattan Beach ...

OPEN HOUSE

901 28th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 6 BR
  • 8 BA
  • 5,648 SqFt.
  • 6,006 Lot

$6,249,000

Active

DOM: 45

Price:
$6,249,000
BR/BA:
6br / 8ba
Sq. ft.:
5,648
Area:
143 - Manhattan Bch Tree
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
45
ADDRESS BD/BA SQFT LOT PRICE $PSF DOM START $ START
Address 701 Bayview Drive BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 2437 sqft LOT 3118 PRICE $5,149,000 $PSF $2,113 DOM 2 DOM START $ $5,149,000 START 05/20/22
Address 459 35th Street BD/BA 8br/5ba SQFT 4586 sqft LOT 5409 PRICE $7,500,000 $PSF $1,635 DOM 2 DOM START $ $7,500,000 START 05/20/22
Address 1208 The Strand A BD/BA 2br/2ba SQFT 1190 sqft LOT 3317 PRICE $4,999,000 $PSF $4,201 DOM 3 DOM START $ $4,999,000 START 05/19/22
Address 2515 Alma Avenue BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3882 sqft LOT 4052 PRICE $3,500,000 $PSF $902 DOM 3 DOM START $ $3,500,000 START 05/19/22
Address 2521 Alma Avenue BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3423 sqft LOT 4052 PRICE $4,000,000 $PSF $1,169 DOM 3 DOM START $ $4,000,000 START 05/19/22
Address 3000 The Strand BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 3949 sqft LOT 3514 PRICE $17,000,000 $PSF $4,305 DOM 4 DOM START $ $17,000,000 START 05/18/22
Address 2807 Elm Avenue BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3471 sqft LOT 5601 PRICE $4,195,000 $PSF $1,209 DOM 6 DOM START $ $4,195,000 START 05/16/22
Address 121 15th Street BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 1900 sqft LOT 2699 PRICE $3,995,000 $PSF $2,103 DOM 9 DOM START $ $3,995,000 START 05/13/22
Address 1404 Manhattan Avenue BD/BA 2br/2ba SQFT 869 sqft LOT 2987 PRICE $4,999,000 $PSF $5,753 DOM 9 DOM START $ $4,999,000 START 05/13/22
Address 2400 Alma Avenue BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2818 sqft LOT 3513 PRICE $4,850,000 $PSF $1,721 DOM 10 DOM START $ $4,850,000 START 05/12/22
Address 600 Anderson Street BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2025 sqft LOT 7151 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $2,320 DOM 10 DOM START $ $4,699,000 START 05/12/22
Address 817 Pacific Avenue BD/BA 3br/2ba SQFT 1510 sqft LOT 6254 PRICE $6,050,000 $PSF $4,007 DOM 10 DOM START $ $6,050,000 START 05/12/22
Address 4113 Crest Drive BD/BA 2br/3ba SQFT 2295 sqft LOT 1350 PRICE $4,900,000 $PSF $2,135 DOM 11 DOM START $ $4,900,000 START 05/11/22
Address 472 29th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4603 sqft LOT 2998 PRICE $4,900,000 $PSF $1,065 DOM 11 DOM START $ $4,900,000 START 05/11/22
Address 621 36th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4066 sqft LOT 5404 PRICE $5,195,000 $PSF $1,278 DOM 12 DOM START $ $5,195,000 START 05/10/22
Address 1900 Laurel Avenue BD/BA 2br/2ba SQFT 1315 sqft LOT 6134 PRICE $3,600,000 $PSF $2,738 DOM 18 DOM START $ $3,600,000 START 05/04/22
Address 200 S Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 5061 sqft LOT 6256 PRICE $7,999,999 $PSF $1,581 DOM 25 DOM START $ $7,999,999 START 04/27/22
Address 300 The Strand BD/BA 4br/9ba SQFT 4440 sqft LOT 3333 PRICE $21,999,000 $PSF $4,955 DOM 26 DOM START $ $21,999,000 START 04/26/22
Address 3404 The Strand BD/BA 8br/7ba SQFT 5568 sqft LOT 3507 PRICE $14,995,000 $PSF $2,693 DOM 31 DOM START $ $14,995,000 START 04/21/22
Address 1420 Elm Avenue BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3432 sqft LOT 4203 PRICE $3,899,999 $PSF $1,136 DOM 31 DOM START $ $4,000,000 START 04/21/22
Address 3312 Palm BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 3599 sqft LOT 4633 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $1,306 DOM 44 DOM START $ $4,699,000 START 04/08/22
Address 901 28th Street BD/BA 6br/8ba SQFT 5648 sqft LOT 6006 PRICE $6,249,000 $PSF $1,106 DOM 45 DOM START $ $6,249,000 START 04/07/22
Address 2617 Vista Drive BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2630 sqft LOT 3494 PRICE $4,999,999 $PSF $1,901 DOM 48 DOM START $ $5,199,000 START 04/04/22
Address 1400 19th Street BD/BA 6br/7ba SQFT 5255 sqft LOT 6942 PRICE $4,500,000 $PSF $856 DOM 57 DOM START $ $4,500,000 START 03/26/22
Address 2522 The Strand BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2660 sqft LOT 3498 PRICE $8,500,000 $PSF $3,195 DOM 61 DOM START $ $8,500,000 START 03/22/22
Address 845 11th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4315 sqft LOT 9938 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $1,390 DOM 62 DOM START $ $7,000,000 START 03/17/22
Address 1800 The Strand BD/BA 5br/8ba SQFT 5329 sqft LOT 3319 PRICE $27,000,000 $PSF $5,067 DOM 81 DOM START $ $27,000,000 START 03/02/22
Address 1145 Fisher Avenue BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5014 sqft LOT 3000 PRICE $5,495,000 $PSF $1,096 DOM 87 DOM START $ $5,795,000 START 02/24/22
Address 235 N Dianthus Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 5152 sqft LOT 6501 PRICE $6,999,000 $PSF $1,359 DOM 94 DOM START $ $8,000,000 START 02/17/22
Address 1516 The Strand BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 4953 sqft LOT 3330 PRICE $17,500,000 $PSF $3,533 DOM 121 DOM START $ $17,500,000 START 01/21/22
Address 3216 The Strand BD/BA 5br/8ba SQFT 7454 sqft LOT 3494 PRICE $30,000,000 $PSF $4,025 DOM 122 DOM START $ $30,000,000 START 01/20/22
Address 2804 The Strand BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 2932 sqft LOT 3481 PRICE $13,499,000 $PSF $4,604 DOM 235 DOM START $ $16,499,000 START 09/29/21
Address 201 15th Street BD/BA 6br/3ba SQFT 2093 sqft LOT 2701 PRICE $3,799,000 $PSF $1,815 DOM 671 DOM START $ $4,550,000 START 04/22/20

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