Is MB Inventory Often 'Top Heavy'?

By Dave Fratello | May 21st, 2019

We posed a question earlier in the month and wanted to come back to it.

The question was whether the Manhattan Beach real estate market is currently "top heavy," possibly featuring more high-priced listings than demand can absorb. (See "Top Heavy? More Than 1/3rd of MB Listings Are $4M"," May 7.)

At the time, we cut the market into sub-$4M and over-$4M tiers, finding that 36% of active listings were priced in that upper tier.

Wasn't it curious, though, that in 2018, only 15% of sales had closed over $4M?

This was a hint that supply might be out of line with demand in 2019, but we were careful to say that we needed another look at the numbers.

With a new data run, we find something illuminating: Higher-end inventory seems to often swell quite a bit above the observed percentage of sales that eventually close at the higher end.

In other words, maybe it isn't so strange to find a disconnect, where a lot of the active market is higher-priced, even though a smaller percentage of sales by year end will actually fall in that higher-priced tier.

Consider some data. (These charts were produced for a forthcoming MBC report on the Manhattan Beach real estate market, which you'll hear more about soon.)

First, let's look at last year's sales totals for all of Manhattan Beach.

The two green areas show the percentage of 391 sales in Manhattan Beach last year that were priced at $3.5M and above.

It's a total of 21%, and it is the highest share ever recorded in Manhattan Beach.

You can see that the "entry level" of homes, priced up to $1.5M, made up just 15% of sales last year.

In 2012, that "low" price tier saw 55% of sales locally. Big change.

Take a look at how the high end has grown as a share of the local housing market.

In just the past 5 years, sales over $3.5M have doubled to 20-21%.

This market segment has grown while the lower end has shrunk considerably.

We kept the left-edge scale for this chart at 60% for a reason.

That's because we'll now use the same scale to look at inventory.

As of May 15 each year, the share of active inventory priced over $3.5M has always been considerably higher, in the 30s and 40s, and fully 50% as of May 15, 2019.

(These figures all come from our published MB Market Updates from each year.)

Some observations now.

First, it's still remarkable that half of the Manhattan Beach market is priced over $3.5M today. Standing on its own, that's an amazing stat.

Second, as we stated in the lead-up to these charts, it appears to not be very strange to have a disconnect between inventory levels by price tier and closed sales, at the end of the year, by price tier. Looking back, it seems that there's always a lot more for sale at the high end than one might expect.

Third, we'd like to know, as you might: Where the heck do all of these $3.5M+ listings go, if they're not sold?

It's possible this is a mid-Spring phenomenon. That is, sellers are all bringing out their higher-end offerings during prime time, hoping to sell quickly. But the reality is that pricier listings always take longer to sell. This may be an artificial "bump" in inventory at this time of year that works itself out by year-end.

Meantime, lots more homes priced under $3.5M are selling quickly, not sitting around on the market.

There's also a chance that higher-priced listings are disproportionately likely to cancel after failing to sell.

We'll take another look at these data and track some listings in a future report.

Meantime, enjoy a look at the latest $3.5M+ listings in Manhattan Beach. (At the time this post went live, there were 62 active; we can only display 48 within this blog post. Email subscribers will need to view this post online to see the listings.)

Newest Manhattan Beach Home Listings Priced $3.5M+

One Of The Most Desirable Walkstreets In Mb! Th...

OPEN HOUSE

220 16th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 5 BR
  • 4 BA
  • 2,701 SqFt.
  • 2,707 Lot

$5,999,000

Active

DOM: 37

Price:
$5,999,000
BR/BA:
5br / 4ba
Sq. ft.:
2,701
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
37

Welcome To 420 5th Street, From The Exterior To...

OPEN HOUSE

420 5th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 5 BR
  • 7 BA
  • 4,282 SqFt.
  • 2,699 Lot

$6,845,000

Active

DOM: 67

Price:
$6,845,000
BR/BA:
5br / 7ba
Sq. ft.:
4,282
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
67
ADDRESS BD/BA SQFT LOT PRICE $PSF DOM START $ START
Address 113 S. Dianthus Street BD/BA 3br/1ba SQFT 1194 sqft LOT 6260 PRICE $5,600,000 $PSF $4,690 DOM 11 DOM START $ $5,600,000 START 11/17/21
Address 4113 Crest Drive BD/BA 2br/3ba SQFT 2295 sqft LOT 1350 PRICE $4,900,000 $PSF $2,135 DOM 16 DOM START $ $4,900,000 START 11/12/21
Address 3100 Palm Avenue BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 3344 sqft LOT 4573 PRICE $4,000,000 $PSF $1,196 DOM 17 DOM START $ $4,000,000 START 11/11/21
Address 665 19th Street BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 3598 sqft LOT 4398 PRICE $4,899,000 $PSF $1,362 DOM 17 DOM START $ $4,899,000 START 11/08/21
Address 825 Highview Avenue BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 5000 sqft LOT 5346 PRICE $8,999,000 $PSF $1,800 DOM 27 DOM START $ $8,999,000 START 11/01/21
Address 2307 N Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 4br/3ba SQFT 3098 sqft LOT 4482 PRICE $3,750,000 $PSF $1,210 DOM 37 DOM START $ $3,750,000 START 10/22/21
Address 220 16th Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 2701 sqft LOT 2707 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $2,221 DOM 37 DOM START $ $5,999,000 START 10/22/21
Address 873 8th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4969 sqft LOT 5770 PRICE $5,299,000 $PSF $1,066 DOM 38 DOM START $ $5,299,000 START 10/21/21
Address 407 Larsson Street BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 4839 sqft LOT 6876 PRICE $4,800,000 $PSF $992 DOM 43 DOM START $ $4,800,000 START 10/16/21
Address 561 33rd Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 3782 sqft LOT 5396 PRICE $3,990,000 $PSF $1,055 DOM 45 DOM START $ $4,150,000 START 10/14/21
Address 300 N Dianthus Street BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 5500 sqft LOT 7565 PRICE $6,799,000 $PSF $1,236 DOM 53 DOM START $ $6,999,000 START 10/06/21
Address 219 Anderson Street BD/BA 6br/7ba SQFT 6483 sqft LOT 8141 PRICE $8,950,000 $PSF $1,381 DOM 59 DOM START $ $10,000,000 START 09/30/21
Address 2804 The Strand BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 3469 sqft LOT 3481 PRICE $16,499,000 $PSF $4,756 DOM 60 DOM START $ $16,499,000 START 09/29/21
Address 420 5th Street BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 4282 sqft LOT 2699 PRICE $6,845,000 $PSF $1,599 DOM 67 DOM START $ $6,845,000 START 09/22/21
Address 4114 The Strand BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 2250 sqft LOT 3507 PRICE $4,395,000 $PSF $1,953 DOM 109 DOM START $ $4,395,000 START 08/11/21
Address 117 Crest Drive BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 2520 sqft LOT 1666 PRICE $4,399,000 $PSF $1,746 DOM 110 DOM START $ $4,495,000 START 06/17/21
Address 2707 N Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4400 sqft LOT 4460 PRICE $4,649,000 $PSF $1,057 DOM 115 DOM START $ $4,895,000 START 07/22/21
Address 808 The Strand BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 2911 sqft LOT 5070 PRICE $10,990,000 $PSF $3,775 DOM 121 DOM START $ $11,695,000 START 07/30/21
Address 2522 The Strand BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 2740 sqft LOT 3498 PRICE $8,500,000 $PSF $3,102 DOM 126 DOM START $ $8,500,000 START 08/11/21
Address 235 No. Dianthus Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 5700 sqft LOT 6500 PRICE $7,900,000 $PSF $1,386 DOM 142 DOM START $ $9,300,000 START 06/18/21
Address 868 9th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5526 sqft LOT 5795 PRICE $8,999,000 $PSF $1,628 DOM 163 DOM START $ $9,868,000 START 06/18/21
Address 2415 Manhattan Avenue BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 4275 sqft LOT 2705 PRICE $12,000,000 $PSF $2,807 DOM 172 DOM START $ $12,000,000 START 04/07/21
Address 440 31st Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3600 sqft LOT 2694 PRICE $3,799,000 $PSF $1,055 DOM 178 DOM START $ $4,100,000 START 06/03/21
Address 224 29th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5219 sqft LOT 3155 PRICE $8,999,000 $PSF $1,724 DOM 194 DOM START $ $9,500,000 START 05/18/21
Address 404 17th Street BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 3149 sqft LOT 2636 PRICE $4,399,000 $PSF $1,397 DOM 201 DOM START $ $4,600,000 START 05/11/21
Address 424 20th Street BD/BA 8br/10ba SQFT 6073 sqft LOT 5148 PRICE $6,995,000 $PSF $1,152 DOM 207 DOM START $ $6,995,000 START 05/05/21
Address 509 Marine Avenue BD/BA 6br/5ba SQFT 4179 sqft LOT 3709 PRICE $4,399,000 $PSF $1,053 DOM 222 DOM START $ $4,399,000 START 04/20/21
Address 201 15th Street BD/BA 6br/3ba SQFT 2093 sqft LOT 2701 PRICE $3,599,000 $PSF $1,720 DOM 555 DOM START $ $4,550,000 START 04/22/20
Address 200 15th Street BD/BA 7br/6ba SQFT 3084 sqft LOT 2844 PRICE $4,199,000 $PSF $1,362 DOM 555 DOM START $ $4,950,000 START 04/22/20

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