Is MB Inventory Often 'Top Heavy'?

By Dave Fratello | May 21st, 2019

We posed a question earlier in the month and wanted to come back to it.

The question was whether the Manhattan Beach real estate market is currently "top heavy," possibly featuring more high-priced listings than demand can absorb. (See "Top Heavy? More Than 1/3rd of MB Listings Are $4M"," May 7.)

At the time, we cut the market into sub-$4M and over-$4M tiers, finding that 36% of active listings were priced in that upper tier.

Wasn't it curious, though, that in 2018, only 15% of sales had closed over $4M?

This was a hint that supply might be out of line with demand in 2019, but we were careful to say that we needed another look at the numbers.

With a new data run, we find something illuminating: Higher-end inventory seems to often swell quite a bit above the observed percentage of sales that eventually close at the higher end.

In other words, maybe it isn't so strange to find a disconnect, where a lot of the active market is higher-priced, even though a smaller percentage of sales by year end will actually fall in that higher-priced tier.

Consider some data. (These charts were produced for a forthcoming MBC report on the Manhattan Beach real estate market, which you'll hear more about soon.)

First, let's look at last year's sales totals for all of Manhattan Beach.

The two green areas show the percentage of 391 sales in Manhattan Beach last year that were priced at $3.5M and above.

It's a total of 21%, and it is the highest share ever recorded in Manhattan Beach.

You can see that the "entry level" of homes, priced up to $1.5M, made up just 15% of sales last year.

In 2012, that "low" price tier saw 55% of sales locally. Big change.

Take a look at how the high end has grown as a share of the local housing market.

In just the past 5 years, sales over $3.5M have doubled to 20-21%.

This market segment has grown while the lower end has shrunk considerably.

We kept the left-edge scale for this chart at 60% for a reason.

That's because we'll now use the same scale to look at inventory.

As of May 15 each year, the share of active inventory priced over $3.5M has always been considerably higher, in the 30s and 40s, and fully 50% as of May 15, 2019.

(These figures all come from our published MB Market Updates from each year.)

Some observations now.

First, it's still remarkable that half of the Manhattan Beach market is priced over $3.5M today. Standing on its own, that's an amazing stat.

Second, as we stated in the lead-up to these charts, it appears to not be very strange to have a disconnect between inventory levels by price tier and closed sales, at the end of the year, by price tier. Looking back, it seems that there's always a lot more for sale at the high end than one might expect.

Third, we'd like to know, as you might: Where the heck do all of these $3.5M+ listings go, if they're not sold?

It's possible this is a mid-Spring phenomenon. That is, sellers are all bringing out their higher-end offerings during prime time, hoping to sell quickly. But the reality is that pricier listings always take longer to sell. This may be an artificial "bump" in inventory at this time of year that works itself out by year-end.

Meantime, lots more homes priced under $3.5M are selling quickly, not sitting around on the market.

There's also a chance that higher-priced listings are disproportionately likely to cancel after failing to sell.

We'll take another look at these data and track some listings in a future report.

Meantime, enjoy a look at the latest $3.5M+ listings in Manhattan Beach. (At the time this post went live, there were 62 active; we can only display 48 within this blog post. Email subscribers will need to view this post online to see the listings.)

Newest Manhattan Beach Home Listings Priced $3.5M+

ADDRESS BD/BA SQFT LOT PRICE $PSF DOM START $ START
Address 1161 Duncan Drive BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3213 sqft LOT 20871 PRICE $5,000,000 $PSF $1,556 DOM 2 DOM START $ $5,000,000 START 06/21/19
Address 400 16th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3935 sqft LOT 2700 PRICE $5,995,000 $PSF $1,524 DOM 3 DOM START $ $5,995,000 START 06/20/19
Address 401 5th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4250 sqft LOT 2694 PRICE $6,495,000 $PSF $1,528 DOM 4 DOM START $ $6,495,000 START 06/19/19
Address 1406 Laurel Avenue BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4552 sqft LOT 5992 PRICE $4,395,000 $PSF $966 DOM 10 DOM START $ $4,395,000 START 06/13/19
Address 2600 Vista Drive BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3775 sqft LOT 2702 PRICE $4,888,000 $PSF $1,295 DOM 11 DOM START $ $4,888,000 START 06/12/19
Address 2522 The Strand BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2660 sqft LOT 3498 PRICE $5,399,000 $PSF $2,030 DOM 14 DOM START $ $5,499,000 START 03/11/19
Address 200 S Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 5061 sqft LOT 6256 PRICE $7,199,000 $PSF $1,422 DOM 17 DOM START $ $7,199,000 START 06/06/19
Address 320 7th Street BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 4259 sqft LOT 2703 PRICE $6,595,000 $PSF $1,548 DOM 17 DOM START $ $6,595,000 START 06/06/19
Address 815 1st Street BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 3226 sqft LOT 8604 PRICE $4,600,000 $PSF $1,426 DOM 19 DOM START $ $4,600,000 START 06/04/19
Address 939 Duncan Avenue BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 3947 sqft LOT 4500 PRICE $3,895,000 $PSF $987 DOM 19 DOM START $ $3,895,000 START 06/04/19
Address 4122 The Strand BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4154 sqft LOT 3503 PRICE $7,200,000 $PSF $1,733 DOM 22 DOM START $ $7,200,000 START 06/01/19
Address 4117 The Strand (aka Ocean Dr) Drive BD/BA 5br/3ba SQFT 2804 sqft LOT 3500 PRICE $6,500,000 $PSF $2,318 DOM 22 DOM START $ $6,500,000 START 06/01/19
Address 316 10th Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4117 sqft LOT 2699 PRICE $4,490,000 $PSF $1,091 DOM 22 DOM START $ $4,490,000 START 06/01/19
Address 3211 Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 5500 sqft LOT 9291 PRICE $3,995,000 $PSF $726 DOM 22 DOM START $ $3,995,000 START 06/01/19
Address 2200 The Strand BD/BA 8br/6ba SQFT 4799 sqft LOT 3491 PRICE $10,000,000 $PSF $2,084 DOM 24 DOM START $ $10,000,000 START 05/30/19
Address 207 S Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 3741 sqft LOT 6252 PRICE $4,495,000 $PSF $1,202 DOM 26 DOM START $ $4,495,000 START 05/28/19
Address 405 5th Street BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 4250 sqft LOT 2705 PRICE $6,899,000 $PSF $1,623 DOM 26 DOM START $ $6,899,000 START 05/28/19
Address 405 S Prospect Avenue BD/BA 6br/5ba SQFT 4535 sqft LOT 9688 PRICE $3,688,000 $PSF $813 DOM 28 DOM START $ $3,688,000 START 05/26/19
Address 210 Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 5486 sqft LOT 6250 PRICE $8,500,000 $PSF $1,549 DOM 32 DOM START $ $8,500,000 START 05/14/19
Address 401 10th Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4100 sqft LOT 2703 PRICE $5,850,000 $PSF $1,427 DOM 33 DOM START $ $5,850,000 START 05/21/19
Address 229 8th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4145 sqft LOT 2703 PRICE $8,995,000 $PSF $2,170 DOM 33 DOM START $ $8,995,000 START 05/21/19
Address 861 8th Street BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 5656 sqft LOT 5751 PRICE $6,299,000 $PSF $1,114 DOM 37 DOM START $ $6,299,000 START 05/17/19
Address 132 17th Street BD/BA 3br/2ba SQFT 1951 sqft LOT 2697 PRICE $5,695,000 $PSF $2,919 DOM 38 DOM START $ $5,995,000 START 05/16/19
Address 204 16th Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4285 sqft LOT 2694 PRICE $7,850,000 $PSF $1,832 DOM 39 DOM START $ $7,850,000 START 05/15/19
Address 3616 The Strand C BD/BA 4br/3ba SQFT 2548 sqft LOT 4676 PRICE $5,625,000 $PSF $2,208 DOM 46 DOM START $ $5,625,000 START 05/08/19
Address 304 26th Street BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 3119 sqft LOT 3519 PRICE $4,999,995 $PSF $1,603 DOM 48 DOM START $ $4,999,995 START 05/06/19
Address 659 18th Street BD/BA 4br/3ba SQFT 4037 sqft LOT 6260 PRICE $4,899,000 $PSF $1,214 DOM 52 DOM START $ $4,950,000 START 05/02/19
Address 2306 John Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3585 sqft LOT 5061 PRICE $3,500,000 $PSF $976 DOM 59 DOM START $ $3,500,000 START 04/25/19
Address 2722 N Ardmore Avenue BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5036 sqft LOT 5010 PRICE $4,595,000 $PSF $912 DOM 61 DOM START $ $4,999,000 START 04/23/19
Address 440 6th Street BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 4144 sqft LOT 2700 PRICE $6,450,000 $PSF $1,556 DOM 61 DOM START $ $6,850,000 START 04/23/19
Address 717 10th Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 4266 sqft LOT 5814 PRICE $4,975,000 $PSF $1,166 DOM 62 DOM START $ $5,199,000 START 04/22/19
Address 508 Manhattan Avenue BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2700 sqft LOT 3344 PRICE $5,690,000 $PSF $2,107 DOM 71 DOM START $ $5,690,000 START 04/13/19
Address 676 18th Street BD/BA 6br/8ba SQFT 5843 sqft LOT 6434 PRICE $6,500,000 $PSF $1,112 DOM 73 DOM START $ $6,500,000 START 04/11/19
Address 1540 Curtis Avenue BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4400 sqft LOT 7499 PRICE $3,699,000 $PSF $841 DOM 75 DOM START $ $3,699,000 START 04/09/19
Address 409 3rd Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4173 sqft LOT 2705 PRICE $5,475,000 $PSF $1,312 DOM 80 DOM START $ $5,795,000 START 04/04/19
Address 229 19th Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 4538 sqft LOT 2701 PRICE $5,499,000 $PSF $1,212 DOM 86 DOM START $ $5,875,000 START 03/29/19
Address 121 20th Street BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2709 sqft LOT 2694 PRICE $7,985,000 $PSF $2,948 DOM 88 DOM START $ $7,985,000 START 03/27/19
Address 441 1st Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4676 sqft LOT 2799 PRICE $3,699,998 $PSF $791 DOM 97 DOM START $ $3,699,998 START 03/18/19
Address 577 31st Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4369 sqft LOT 5025 PRICE $4,799,000 $PSF $1,098 DOM 103 DOM START $ $4,799,000 START 03/12/19
Address 508 Larsson Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4680 sqft LOT 6877 PRICE $3,595,000 $PSF $768 DOM 109 DOM START $ $3,895,000 START 02/07/19
Address 235 4th Street BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 4135 sqft LOT 2478 PRICE $8,300,000 $PSF $2,007 DOM 116 DOM START $ $8,300,000 START 02/27/19
Address 232 16th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4978 sqft LOT 2694 PRICE $6,795,014 $PSF $1,365 DOM 117 DOM START $ $6,795,014 START 02/26/19
Address 1000 The Strand BD/BA 9br/8ba SQFT 5967 sqft LOT 4979 PRICE $25,900,000 $PSF $4,341 DOM 117 DOM START $ $25,900,000 START 02/26/19
Address 221 1st Street BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 2008 sqft LOT 2703 PRICE $3,749,000 $PSF $1,867 DOM 129 DOM START $ $3,999,000 START 02/14/19
Address 222 1st Place BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 2008 sqft LOT 2703 PRICE $3,549,000 $PSF $1,767 DOM 129 DOM START $ $3,749,000 START 02/14/19
Address 435 29th Street BD/BA 3br/2ba SQFT 1953 sqft LOT 5402 PRICE $4,900,000 $PSF $2,509 DOM 129 DOM START $ $5,500,000 START 02/14/19
Address 3305 Pine Avenue BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 5715 sqft LOT 9282 PRICE $7,000,000 $PSF $1,225 DOM 136 DOM START $ $7,800,000 START 02/07/19
Address 608 15th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5050 sqft LOT 6238 PRICE $4,895,000 $PSF $969 DOM 138 DOM START $ $5,300,000 START 02/05/19

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