Is MB Inventory Often 'Top Heavy'?

By Dave Fratello | May 21st, 2019

We posed a question earlier in the month and wanted to come back to it.

The question was whether the Manhattan Beach real estate market is currently "top heavy," possibly featuring more high-priced listings than demand can absorb. (See "Top Heavy? More Than 1/3rd of MB Listings Are $4M"," May 7.)

At the time, we cut the market into sub-$4M and over-$4M tiers, finding that 36% of active listings were priced in that upper tier.

Wasn't it curious, though, that in 2018, only 15% of sales had closed over $4M?

This was a hint that supply might be out of line with demand in 2019, but we were careful to say that we needed another look at the numbers.

With a new data run, we find something illuminating: Higher-end inventory seems to often swell quite a bit above the observed percentage of sales that eventually close at the higher end.

In other words, maybe it isn't so strange to find a disconnect, where a lot of the active market is higher-priced, even though a smaller percentage of sales by year end will actually fall in that higher-priced tier.

Consider some data. (These charts were produced for a forthcoming MBC report on the Manhattan Beach real estate market, which you'll hear more about soon.)

First, let's look at last year's sales totals for all of Manhattan Beach.

The two green areas show the percentage of 391 sales in Manhattan Beach last year that were priced at $3.5M and above.

It's a total of 21%, and it is the highest share ever recorded in Manhattan Beach.

You can see that the "entry level" of homes, priced up to $1.5M, made up just 15% of sales last year.

In 2012, that "low" price tier saw 55% of sales locally. Big change.

Take a look at how the high end has grown as a share of the local housing market.

In just the past 5 years, sales over $3.5M have doubled to 20-21%.

This market segment has grown while the lower end has shrunk considerably.

We kept the left-edge scale for this chart at 60% for a reason.

That's because we'll now use the same scale to look at inventory.

As of May 15 each year, the share of active inventory priced over $3.5M has always been considerably higher, in the 30s and 40s, and fully 50% as of May 15, 2019.

(These figures all come from our published MB Market Updates from each year.)

Some observations now.

First, it's still remarkable that half of the Manhattan Beach market is priced over $3.5M today. Standing on its own, that's an amazing stat.

Second, as we stated in the lead-up to these charts, it appears to not be very strange to have a disconnect between inventory levels by price tier and closed sales, at the end of the year, by price tier. Looking back, it seems that there's always a lot more for sale at the high end than one might expect.

Third, we'd like to know, as you might: Where the heck do all of these $3.5M+ listings go, if they're not sold?

It's possible this is a mid-Spring phenomenon. That is, sellers are all bringing out their higher-end offerings during prime time, hoping to sell quickly. But the reality is that pricier listings always take longer to sell. This may be an artificial "bump" in inventory at this time of year that works itself out by year-end.

Meantime, lots more homes priced under $3.5M are selling quickly, not sitting around on the market.

There's also a chance that higher-priced listings are disproportionately likely to cancel after failing to sell.

We'll take another look at these data and track some listings in a future report.

Meantime, enjoy a look at the latest $3.5M+ listings in Manhattan Beach. (At the time this post went live, there were 62 active; we can only display 48 within this blog post. Email subscribers will need to view this post online to see the listings.)

Newest Manhattan Beach Home Listings Priced $3.5M+

Luxury Meets Comfort And Relaxation In This Man...

OPEN HOUSE

340 6th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 5 BR
  • 5 BA
  • 3,842 SqFt.
  • 2,694 Lot

$8,500,000

Active

DOM: 2

Price:
$8,500,000
BR/BA:
5br / 5ba
Sq. ft.:
3,842
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
2

Auction: Bid October 20-25. Previously Offered ...

OPEN HOUSE

1400 19th St

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 5 BR
  • 5 BA
  • 4,301 SqFt.
  • 6,942 Lot

$4,000,000

Active

DOM: 19

Price:
$4,000,000
BR/BA:
5br / 5ba
Sq. ft.:
4,301
Area:
146 - Manhattan Bch Heights/Lib Vlg
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
19

One Of The Finest Homes Ever Built In Manhattan...

OPEN HOUSE

319 S Dianthus Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 5 BR
  • 7 BA
  • 5,685 SqFt.
  • 5,953 Lot

$12,999,000

Active

DOM: 52

Price:
$12,999,000
BR/BA:
5br / 7ba
Sq. ft.:
5,685
Area:
144 - Manhattan Bch Hill
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
52

New Stunning Coastal Modern Beach Townhome With...

OPEN HOUSE

2605 Vista Drive

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 4 BR
  • 4 BA
  • 2,678 SqFt.
  • N/A Lot

$4,699,000

Active

DOM: 60

Price:
$4,699,000
BR/BA:
4br / 4ba
Sq. ft.:
2,678
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
60

Coastal Plantation In The Heart Of Manhattan Be...

OPEN HOUSE

724 13th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 6 BR
  • 7 BA
  • 4,844 SqFt.
  • 2,999 Lot

$5,695,000

Active

DOM: 65

Price:
$5,695,000
BR/BA:
6br / 7ba
Sq. ft.:
4,844
Area:
143 - Manhattan Bch Tree
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
65

Dream Location In This Beautifully Updated Home...

RECENT PRICE CUT

317 8th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 3 BR
  • 3 BA
  • 2,176 SqFt.
  • 2,695 Lot

$4,299,000

Active

DOM: 87

Price:
$4,299,000
BR/BA:
3br / 3ba
Sq. ft.:
2,176
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
87

Welcome To This Quintessential Manhattan Beach ...

OPEN HOUSE

901 28th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 6 BR
  • 8 BA
  • 5,648 SqFt.
  • 6,006 Lot

$6,249,000

Active

DOM: 178

Price:
$6,249,000
BR/BA:
6br / 8ba
Sq. ft.:
5,648
Area:
143 - Manhattan Bch Tree
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
178
ADDRESS BD/BA SQFT LOT PRICE $PSF DOM START $ START
Address 641 27th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4697 sqft LOT 4800 PRICE $6,149,000 $PSF $1,309 DOM 2 DOM START $ $6,149,000 START 09/30/22
Address 340 6th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3842 sqft LOT 2694 PRICE $8,500,000 $PSF $2,212 DOM 2 DOM START $ $8,500,000 START 09/30/22
Address 2522 The Strand BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2660 sqft LOT 3498 PRICE $8,500,000 $PSF $3,195 DOM 4 DOM START $ $8,900,000 START 09/28/22
Address 4406 The Strand BD/BA 2br/3ba SQFT 2138 sqft LOT 3506 PRICE $5,249,000 $PSF $2,455 DOM 4 DOM START $ $5,249,000 START 09/28/22
Address 232 2nd Street BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 2020 sqft LOT 1355 PRICE $4,595,000 $PSF $2,275 DOM 10 DOM START $ $4,595,000 START 09/22/22
Address 1400 19th St BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4301 sqft LOT 6942 PRICE $4,000,000 $PSF $930 DOM 19 DOM START $ $4,000,000 START 09/13/22
Address 4016 The Strand BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 3578 sqft LOT 1746 PRICE $8,895,000 $PSF $2,486 DOM 20 DOM START $ $8,895,000 START 09/12/22
Address 316 28th Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 3450 sqft LOT 2220 PRICE $8,795,000 $PSF $2,549 DOM 20 DOM START $ $8,795,000 START 09/12/22
Address 445 33rd Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4353 sqft LOT 2702 PRICE $7,495,000 $PSF $1,722 DOM 26 DOM START $ $7,495,000 START 09/06/22
Address 472 29th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4603 sqft LOT 2998 PRICE $4,495,000 $PSF $977 DOM 26 DOM START $ $4,495,000 START 09/06/22
Address 124 2nd Street BD/BA 3br/2ba SQFT 1750 sqft LOT 2707 PRICE $6,875,000 $PSF $3,929 DOM 32 DOM START $ $6,875,000 START 08/31/22
Address 1300 11th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4007 sqft LOT 7863 PRICE $4,995,000 $PSF $1,247 DOM 35 DOM START $ $4,995,000 START 08/27/22
Address 219 N Dianthus Street BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 3300 sqft LOT 3352 PRICE $4,100,000 $PSF $1,242 DOM 37 DOM START $ $4,300,000 START 08/26/22
Address 400 10th Street BD/BA 4br/3ba SQFT 2964 sqft LOT 2711 PRICE $4,999,000 $PSF $1,687 DOM 51 DOM START $ $5,200,000 START 08/12/22
Address 513 N Dianthus Street BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2770 sqft LOT 3250 PRICE $3,500,000 $PSF $1,264 DOM 51 DOM START $ $3,600,000 START 08/12/22
Address 500 N Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 5br/8ba SQFT 8389 sqft LOT 10128 PRICE $22,000,000 $PSF $2,622 DOM 51 DOM START $ $22,000,000 START 08/12/22
Address 400 10th Street BD/BA 4br/3ba SQFT 2964 sqft LOT 2711 PRICE $4,999,000 $PSF $1,687 DOM 51 DOM START $ $5,200,000 START 08/12/22
Address 319 S Dianthus Street BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 5685 sqft LOT 5953 PRICE $12,999,000 $PSF $2,287 DOM 52 DOM START $ $12,999,000 START 08/11/22
Address 3203 Vista Drive BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3178 sqft LOT 1751 PRICE $6,499,000 $PSF $2,045 DOM 53 DOM START $ $6,750,000 START 08/10/22
Address 2605 Vista Drive BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2678 sqft LOT 3496 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $1,755 DOM 60 DOM START $ $4,699,000 START 08/03/22
Address 733 12th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4383 sqft LOT 3005 PRICE $4,995,000 $PSF $1,140 DOM 60 DOM START $ $4,995,000 START 08/03/22
Address 724 13th Street BD/BA 6br/7ba SQFT 4844 sqft LOT 2999 PRICE $5,695,000 $PSF $1,176 DOM 65 DOM START $ $5,695,000 START 07/29/22
Address 1908 The Strand BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 1733 sqft LOT 3314 PRICE $14,395,000 $PSF $8,306 DOM 68 DOM START $ $14,395,000 START 07/26/22
Address 216 4th Street BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 2754 sqft LOT 1350 PRICE $6,995,000 $PSF $2,540 DOM 75 DOM START $ $7,499,000 START 06/29/22
Address 931 1st Street BD/BA 2br/1ba SQFT 948 sqft LOT 9595 PRICE $6,500,000 $PSF $6,857 DOM 80 DOM START $ $7,300,000 START 07/14/22
Address 119 S Dianthus Ave. BD/BA 3br/2ba SQFT 2364 sqft LOT 6239 PRICE $5,899,000 $PSF $2,495 DOM 82 DOM START $ $5,899,000 START 07/12/22
Address 317 8th Street BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2176 sqft LOT 2695 PRICE $4,299,000 $PSF $1,976 DOM 87 DOM START $ $4,575,000 START 07/07/22
Address 800 N Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2900 sqft LOT 7201 PRICE $4,999,999 $PSF $1,724 DOM 94 DOM START $ $4,999,999 START 06/30/22
Address 308 The Strand BD/BA 6br/8ba SQFT 6978 sqft LOT 3336 PRICE $36,000,000 $PSF $5,159 DOM 101 DOM START $ $36,000,000 START 05/26/22
Address 113 S Dianthus BD/BA 3br/1ba SQFT 1194 sqft LOT 6250 PRICE $5,299,000 $PSF $4,438 DOM 110 DOM START $ $5,600,000 START 06/14/22
Address 114 N Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 6400 sqft LOT 6753 PRICE $8,499,000 $PSF $1,328 DOM 115 DOM START $ $9,200,000 START 06/09/22
Address 2415 Manhattan Avenue BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 4275 sqft LOT 2705 PRICE $10,500,000 $PSF $2,456 DOM 122 DOM START $ $10,995,000 START 06/02/22
Address 459 35th Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3552 sqft LOT 2701 PRICE $4,199,000 $PSF $1,182 DOM 135 DOM START $ $7,500,000 START 05/20/22
Address 2521 Alma Avenue BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3423 sqft LOT 4052 PRICE $4,000,000 $PSF $1,169 DOM 136 DOM START $ $4,000,000 START 05/19/22
Address 3000 The Strand BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 3949 sqft LOT 3514 PRICE $15,500,000 $PSF $3,925 DOM 137 DOM START $ $17,000,000 START 05/18/22
Address 621 36th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4066 sqft LOT 5404 PRICE $5,195,000 $PSF $1,278 DOM 145 DOM START $ $5,195,000 START 05/10/22
Address 901 28th Street BD/BA 6br/8ba SQFT 5648 sqft LOT 6006 PRICE $6,249,000 $PSF $1,106 DOM 178 DOM START $ $6,249,000 START 04/07/22
Address 845 11th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4315 sqft LOT 9938 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $1,390 DOM 195 DOM START $ $7,000,000 START 03/17/22
Address 235 N Dianthus Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 5152 sqft LOT 6501 PRICE $6,499,000 $PSF $1,261 DOM 227 DOM START $ $8,000,000 START 02/17/22
Address 3216 The Strand BD/BA 5br/8ba SQFT 7454 sqft LOT 3494 PRICE $30,000,000 $PSF $4,025 DOM 255 DOM START $ $30,000,000 START 01/20/22

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