Is MB Inventory Often 'Top Heavy'?

By Dave Fratello | May 21st, 2019

We posed a question earlier in the month and wanted to come back to it.

The question was whether the Manhattan Beach real estate market is currently "top heavy," possibly featuring more high-priced listings than demand can absorb. (See "Top Heavy? More Than 1/3rd of MB Listings Are $4M"," May 7.)

At the time, we cut the market into sub-$4M and over-$4M tiers, finding that 36% of active listings were priced in that upper tier.

Wasn't it curious, though, that in 2018, only 15% of sales had closed over $4M?

This was a hint that supply might be out of line with demand in 2019, but we were careful to say that we needed another look at the numbers.

With a new data run, we find something illuminating: Higher-end inventory seems to often swell quite a bit above the observed percentage of sales that eventually close at the higher end.

In other words, maybe it isn't so strange to find a disconnect, where a lot of the active market is higher-priced, even though a smaller percentage of sales by year end will actually fall in that higher-priced tier.

Consider some data. (These charts were produced for a forthcoming MBC report on the Manhattan Beach real estate market, which you'll hear more about soon.)

First, let's look at last year's sales totals for all of Manhattan Beach.

The two green areas show the percentage of 391 sales in Manhattan Beach last year that were priced at $3.5M and above.

It's a total of 21%, and it is the highest share ever recorded in Manhattan Beach.

You can see that the "entry level" of homes, priced up to $1.5M, made up just 15% of sales last year.

In 2012, that "low" price tier saw 55% of sales locally. Big change.

Take a look at how the high end has grown as a share of the local housing market.

In just the past 5 years, sales over $3.5M have doubled to 20-21%.

This market segment has grown while the lower end has shrunk considerably.

We kept the left-edge scale for this chart at 60% for a reason.

That's because we'll now use the same scale to look at inventory.

As of May 15 each year, the share of active inventory priced over $3.5M has always been considerably higher, in the 30s and 40s, and fully 50% as of May 15, 2019.

(These figures all come from our published MB Market Updates from each year.)

Some observations now.

First, it's still remarkable that half of the Manhattan Beach market is priced over $3.5M today. Standing on its own, that's an amazing stat.

Second, as we stated in the lead-up to these charts, it appears to not be very strange to have a disconnect between inventory levels by price tier and closed sales, at the end of the year, by price tier. Looking back, it seems that there's always a lot more for sale at the high end than one might expect.

Third, we'd like to know, as you might: Where the heck do all of these $3.5M+ listings go, if they're not sold?

It's possible this is a mid-Spring phenomenon. That is, sellers are all bringing out their higher-end offerings during prime time, hoping to sell quickly. But the reality is that pricier listings always take longer to sell. This may be an artificial "bump" in inventory at this time of year that works itself out by year-end.

Meantime, lots more homes priced under $3.5M are selling quickly, not sitting around on the market.

There's also a chance that higher-priced listings are disproportionately likely to cancel after failing to sell.

We'll take another look at these data and track some listings in a future report.

Meantime, enjoy a look at the latest $3.5M+ listings in Manhattan Beach. (At the time this post went live, there were 62 active; we can only display 48 within this blog post. Email subscribers will need to view this post online to see the listings.)

Newest Manhattan Beach Home Listings Priced $3.5M+

ADDRESS BD/BA SQFT LOT PRICE $PSF DOM START $ START
Address 2310 N Ardmore Avenue BD/BA 4br/3ba SQFT 3667 sqft LOT 5433 PRICE $3,500,000 $PSF $954 DOM 2 DOM START $ $3,500,000 START 10/21/20
Address 2508 The Strand BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 4554 sqft LOT 3504 PRICE $12,950,000 $PSF $2,844 DOM 2 DOM START $ $12,950,000 START 10/21/20
Address 712 Highland Avenue BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 2101 sqft LOT 3326 PRICE $3,548,000 $PSF $1,689 DOM 7 DOM START $ $3,548,000 START 10/16/20
Address 405 S Prospect Avenue BD/BA 6br/5ba SQFT 4658 sqft LOT 9688 PRICE $3,595,000 $PSF $772 DOM 7 DOM START $ $3,475,000 START 10/16/20
Address 1603 6th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4904 sqft LOT 8635 PRICE $3,650,000 $PSF $744 DOM 8 DOM START $ $3,650,000 START 10/15/20
Address 4216 The Strand BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 3825 sqft LOT 3510 PRICE $7,249,000 $PSF $1,895 DOM 8 DOM START $ $7,249,000 START 10/15/20
Address 337 7th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4500 sqft LOT 2703 PRICE $7,500,000 $PSF $1,667 DOM 9 DOM START $ $7,500,000 START 10/14/20
Address 212 16th Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4181 sqft LOT 2708 PRICE $8,795,000 $PSF $2,104 DOM 10 DOM START $ $8,795,000 START 10/13/20
Address 1009 10th Street BD/BA 6br/7ba SQFT 5073 sqft LOT 7499 PRICE $5,299,000 $PSF $1,045 DOM 10 DOM START $ $5,299,000 START 10/13/20
Address 633 11th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5200 sqft LOT 5664 PRICE $6,950,000 $PSF $1,337 DOM 14 DOM START $ $6,950,000 START 10/09/20
Address 653 26th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3500 sqft LOT 5120 PRICE $3,650,000 $PSF $1,043 DOM 14 DOM START $ $3,650,000 START 10/09/20
Address 112 23rd Place BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 1946 sqft LOT 2703 PRICE $3,700,000 $PSF $1,901 DOM 22 DOM START $ $3,700,000 START 10/01/20
Address 120 35th Street BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2554 sqft LOT 2707 PRICE $4,600,000 $PSF $1,801 DOM 23 DOM START $ $4,600,000 START 09/30/20
Address 317 9th Street BD/BA 2br/4ba SQFT 1964 sqft LOT 1350 PRICE $3,895,000 $PSF $1,983 DOM 28 DOM START $ $3,895,000 START 09/25/20
Address 449 26th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4552 sqft LOT 3150 PRICE $4,399,000 $PSF $966 DOM 28 DOM START $ $4,399,000 START 09/25/20
Address 520 13th Street BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 3550 sqft LOT 3000 PRICE $5,745,000 $PSF $1,618 DOM 29 DOM START $ $5,995,000 START 09/24/20
Address 3808 The Strand BD/BA 4br/7ba SQFT 4772 sqft LOT 3501 PRICE $13,500,000 $PSF $2,829 DOM 30 DOM START $ $13,500,000 START 09/23/20
Address 208 20th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5673 sqft LOT 2704 PRICE $9,590,000 $PSF $1,690 DOM 31 DOM START $ $9,590,000 START 09/22/20
Address 421 1st Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 3620 sqft LOT 2710 PRICE $4,500,000 $PSF $1,243 DOM 31 DOM START $ $4,500,000 START 09/22/20
Address 510 N Dianthus Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3805 sqft LOT 5503 PRICE $4,750,000 $PSF $1,248 DOM 31 DOM START $ $4,750,000 START 09/22/20
Address 4117 The Strand (aka Ocean Dr) Drive BD/BA 5br/3ba SQFT 2804 sqft LOT 3500 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $2,139 DOM 35 DOM START $ $5,999,000 START 09/18/20
Address 936 8th Street BD/BA 7br/8ba SQFT 6692 sqft LOT 6502 PRICE $8,000,000 $PSF $1,195 DOM 36 DOM START $ $8,000,000 START 09/17/20
Address 637 17th Street BD/BA 6br/5ba SQFT 3514 sqft LOT 4870 PRICE $4,195,000 $PSF $1,194 DOM 42 DOM START $ $4,390,000 START 09/11/20
Address 235 4th Street BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 4135 sqft LOT 2478 PRICE $7,250,000 $PSF $1,753 DOM 43 DOM START $ $7,250,000 START 09/10/20
Address 1226 9th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3583 sqft LOT 6253 PRICE $3,850,000 $PSF $1,075 DOM 43 DOM START $ $3,850,000 START 09/10/20
Address 205 20th Street BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 4747 sqft LOT 2697 PRICE $10,500,000 $PSF $2,212 DOM 44 DOM START $ $10,500,000 START 09/09/20
Address 1731 Ruhland BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 5020 sqft LOT 7500 PRICE $4,199,000 $PSF $836 DOM 49 DOM START $ $4,199,000 START 09/04/20
Address 4114 The Strand BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 2250 sqft LOT 3507 PRICE $4,750,000 $PSF $2,111 DOM 63 DOM START $ $5,495,000 START 08/21/20
Address 1515 Gates Avenue BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 6570 sqft LOT 7496 PRICE $5,695,000 $PSF $867 DOM 65 DOM START $ $5,995,000 START 08/19/20
Address 440 6th Street BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 4144 sqft LOT 2700 PRICE $5,695,000 $PSF $1,374 DOM 66 DOM START $ $5,695,000 START 08/18/20
Address 1406 Laurel Avenue BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4552 sqft LOT 5992 PRICE $4,195,000 $PSF $922 DOM 71 DOM START $ $4,195,000 START 08/13/20
Address 3412 Palm Avenue BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 5650 sqft LOT 6154 PRICE $5,995,000 $PSF $1,061 DOM 90 DOM START $ $5,995,000 START 07/25/20
Address 1516 The Strand BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 4953 sqft LOT 3330 PRICE $18,900,000 $PSF $3,816 DOM 95 DOM START $ $18,900,000 START 07/20/20
Address 224 32nd Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4367 sqft LOT 2698 PRICE $6,999,997 $PSF $1,603 DOM 98 DOM START $ $7,499,000 START 07/17/20
Address 848 11th Street BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 4613 sqft LOT 6002 PRICE $4,590,000 $PSF $995 DOM 107 DOM START $ $4,590,000 START 07/08/20
Address 325 9th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4093 sqft LOT 2686 PRICE $5,899,000 $PSF $1,441 DOM 112 DOM START $ $5,899,000 START 07/03/20
Address 844 10th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4556 sqft LOT 6002 PRICE $4,595,000 $PSF $1,009 DOM 117 DOM START $ $4,895,000 START 06/21/20
Address 429 31st Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4246 sqft LOT 2705 PRICE $3,799,000 $PSF $895 DOM 121 DOM START $ $3,799,000 START 06/24/20
Address 2600 Vista Drive BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3775 sqft LOT 2702 PRICE $4,100,000 $PSF $1,086 DOM 126 DOM START $ $4,349,000 START 06/19/20
Address 429 5th Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3255 sqft LOT 2703 PRICE $4,595,000 $PSF $1,412 DOM 129 DOM START $ $4,895,000 START 06/16/20
Address 592 30th Street BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 4648 sqft LOT 4804 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $1,011 DOM 137 DOM START $ $4,699,000 START 06/05/20
Address 1920 The Strand BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 5574 sqft LOT 3340 PRICE $16,900,000 $PSF $3,032 DOM 154 DOM START $ $16,900,000 START 05/22/20
Address 125 8th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4083 sqft LOT 2681 PRICE $7,995,000 $PSF $1,958 DOM 157 DOM START $ $8,495,000 START 05/19/20
Address 577 31st Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4369 sqft LOT 5025 PRICE $4,479,000 $PSF $1,025 DOM 161 DOM START $ $4,479,000 START 05/15/20
Address 617 31st Street BD/BA 7br/8ba SQFT 5084 sqft LOT 5019 PRICE $4,999,000 $PSF $983 DOM 170 DOM START $ $5,495,000 START 05/06/20
Address 2615 Crest Drive BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 3216 sqft LOT 1752 PRICE $5,999,999 $PSF $1,866 DOM 175 DOM START $ $6,499,000 START 05/01/20
Address 200 15th Street BD/BA 7br/6ba SQFT 3084 sqft LOT 2844 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $1,524 DOM 184 DOM START $ $4,950,000 START 04/22/20
Address 201 15th Street BD/BA 6br/3ba SQFT 2093 sqft LOT 2701 PRICE $4,299,000 $PSF $2,054 DOM 184 DOM START $ $4,550,000 START 04/22/20

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