Is MB Inventory Often 'Top Heavy'?

By Dave Fratello | May 21st, 2019

We posed a question earlier in the month and wanted to come back to it.

The question was whether the Manhattan Beach real estate market is currently "top heavy," possibly featuring more high-priced listings than demand can absorb. (See "Top Heavy? More Than 1/3rd of MB Listings Are $4M"," May 7.)

At the time, we cut the market into sub-$4M and over-$4M tiers, finding that 36% of active listings were priced in that upper tier.

Wasn't it curious, though, that in 2018, only 15% of sales had closed over $4M?

This was a hint that supply might be out of line with demand in 2019, but we were careful to say that we needed another look at the numbers.

With a new data run, we find something illuminating: Higher-end inventory seems to often swell quite a bit above the observed percentage of sales that eventually close at the higher end.

In other words, maybe it isn't so strange to find a disconnect, where a lot of the active market is higher-priced, even though a smaller percentage of sales by year end will actually fall in that higher-priced tier.

Consider some data. (These charts were produced for a forthcoming MBC report on the Manhattan Beach real estate market, which you'll hear more about soon.)

First, let's look at last year's sales totals for all of Manhattan Beach.

The two green areas show the percentage of 391 sales in Manhattan Beach last year that were priced at $3.5M and above.

It's a total of 21%, and it is the highest share ever recorded in Manhattan Beach.

You can see that the "entry level" of homes, priced up to $1.5M, made up just 15% of sales last year.

In 2012, that "low" price tier saw 55% of sales locally. Big change.

Take a look at how the high end has grown as a share of the local housing market.

In just the past 5 years, sales over $3.5M have doubled to 20-21%.

This market segment has grown while the lower end has shrunk considerably.

We kept the left-edge scale for this chart at 60% for a reason.

That's because we'll now use the same scale to look at inventory.

As of May 15 each year, the share of active inventory priced over $3.5M has always been considerably higher, in the 30s and 40s, and fully 50% as of May 15, 2019.

(These figures all come from our published MB Market Updates from each year.)

Some observations now.

First, it's still remarkable that half of the Manhattan Beach market is priced over $3.5M today. Standing on its own, that's an amazing stat.

Second, as we stated in the lead-up to these charts, it appears to not be very strange to have a disconnect between inventory levels by price tier and closed sales, at the end of the year, by price tier. Looking back, it seems that there's always a lot more for sale at the high end than one might expect.

Third, we'd like to know, as you might: Where the heck do all of these $3.5M+ listings go, if they're not sold?

It's possible this is a mid-Spring phenomenon. That is, sellers are all bringing out their higher-end offerings during prime time, hoping to sell quickly. But the reality is that pricier listings always take longer to sell. This may be an artificial "bump" in inventory at this time of year that works itself out by year-end.

Meantime, lots more homes priced under $3.5M are selling quickly, not sitting around on the market.

There's also a chance that higher-priced listings are disproportionately likely to cancel after failing to sell.

We'll take another look at these data and track some listings in a future report.

Meantime, enjoy a look at the latest $3.5M+ listings in Manhattan Beach. (At the time this post went live, there were 62 active; we can only display 48 within this blog post. Email subscribers will need to view this post online to see the listings.)

Newest Manhattan Beach Home Listings Priced $3.5M+

This Brand New 4-level Custom Single Family Hom...

OPEN HOUSE

2509 Alma Avenue

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 3 BR
  • 5 BA
  • 2,427 SqFt.
  • 1,356 Lot

$4,799,000

Active

DOM: 14

Price:
$4,799,000
BR/BA:
3br / 5ba
Sq. ft.:
2,427
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
14

This Custom Home Sits On A Sprawling 11,999 Sf ...

RECENT PRICE CUT

853 10th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 7 BR
  • 10 BA
  • 7,606 SqFt.
  • 11,999 Lot

$8,199,999

Active

DOM: 75

Price:
$8,199,999
BR/BA:
7br / 10ba
Sq. ft.:
7,606
Area:
144 - Manhattan Bch Hill
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
75

*** New Construction*** This 5 Bedroom, 6.5 Bat...

OPEN HOUSE

592 30th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 5 BR
  • 7 BA
  • 4,648 SqFt.
  • 4,804 Lot

$4,699,000

Active

DOM: 398

Price:
$4,699,000
BR/BA:
5br / 7ba
Sq. ft.:
4,648
Area:
143 - Manhattan Bch Tree
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
398
ADDRESS BD/BA SQFT LOT PRICE $PSF DOM START $ START
Address 808 The Strand BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 2911 sqft LOT 5070 PRICE $11,695,000 $PSF $4,018 DOM 5 DOM START $ $11,695,000 START 07/30/21
Address 2215 Bayview Drive BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2630 sqft LOT 3505 PRICE $4,600,000 $PSF $1,749 DOM 6 DOM START $ $4,600,000 START 07/29/21
Address 605 29th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5002 sqft LOT 4801 PRICE $5,499,999 $PSF $1,100 DOM 7 DOM START $ $5,499,999 START 07/28/21
Address 225 27th Street BD/BA 4br/2ba SQFT 2270 sqft LOT 2491 PRICE $4,999,000 $PSF $2,202 DOM 12 DOM START $ $4,999,000 START 07/23/21
Address 1659 6th Street BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 5255 sqft LOT 7457 PRICE $3,699,000 $PSF $704 DOM 12 DOM START $ $3,699,000 START 07/23/21
Address 1209 Elm Avenue BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3248 sqft LOT 4485 PRICE $3,750,000 $PSF $1,155 DOM 12 DOM START $ $3,750,000 START 07/22/21
Address 2304 Grandview Avenue BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 4092 sqft LOT 4480 PRICE $4,199,000 $PSF $1,026 DOM 13 DOM START $ $4,199,000 START 07/22/21
Address 2707 N Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4400 sqft LOT 4460 PRICE $4,895,000 $PSF $1,113 DOM 13 DOM START $ $4,895,000 START 07/22/21
Address 2509 Alma Avenue BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 2427 sqft LOT 1356 PRICE $4,799,000 $PSF $1,977 DOM 14 DOM START $ $5,195,000 START 06/18/21
Address 124 11th Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 3966 sqft LOT 2711 PRICE $8,750,000 $PSF $2,206 DOM 20 DOM START $ $9,450,000 START 07/15/21
Address 1430 2nd Street BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2283 sqft LOT 13634 PRICE $4,850,000 $PSF $2,124 DOM 27 DOM START $ $4,850,000 START 07/08/21
Address 1145 Fisher Avenue BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 4716 sqft LOT 3000 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $1,272 DOM 35 DOM START $ $5,999,000 START 06/30/21
Address 511 Pacific Avenue BD/BA 5br/9ba SQFT 7961 sqft LOT 9355 PRICE $7,950,000 $PSF $999 DOM 37 DOM START $ $7,950,000 START 06/29/21
Address 428 36th Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4064 sqft LOT 2702 PRICE $4,750,000 $PSF $1,169 DOM 40 DOM START $ $4,750,000 START 06/25/21
Address 417 2nd Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4331 sqft LOT 2691 PRICE $5,950,000 $PSF $1,374 DOM 41 DOM START $ $6,250,000 START 06/24/21
Address 2508 The Strand BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 4554 sqft LOT 3502 PRICE $12,999,000 $PSF $2,854 DOM 42 DOM START $ $12,999,000 START 06/16/21
Address 235 No. Dianthus Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 5700 sqft LOT 6500 PRICE $8,400,000 $PSF $1,474 DOM 47 DOM START $ $9,300,000 START 06/18/21
Address 868 9th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5526 sqft LOT 5795 PRICE $9,868,000 $PSF $1,786 DOM 47 DOM START $ $9,868,000 START 06/18/21
Address 228 20th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4144 sqft LOT 2700 PRICE $5,845,000 $PSF $1,410 DOM 47 DOM START $ $5,995,000 START 06/15/21
Address 2415 Manhattan Avenue BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 4275 sqft LOT 2705 PRICE $12,000,000 $PSF $2,807 DOM 56 DOM START $ $12,000,000 START 04/07/21
Address 504 John Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4783 sqft LOT 7003 PRICE $9,499,000 $PSF $1,986 DOM 61 DOM START $ $9,499,000 START 06/04/21
Address 440 31st Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3600 sqft LOT 2694 PRICE $3,999,000 $PSF $1,111 DOM 62 DOM START $ $4,100,000 START 06/03/21
Address 853 10th Street BD/BA 7br/10ba SQFT 7606 sqft LOT 11999 PRICE $8,199,999 $PSF $1,078 DOM 75 DOM START $ $8,688,000 START 05/21/21
Address 1516 The Strand BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 4953 sqft LOT 3330 PRICE $17,900,000 $PSF $3,614 DOM 78 DOM START $ $17,900,000 START 05/18/21
Address 224 29th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5219 sqft LOT 3155 PRICE $9,500,000 $PSF $1,820 DOM 78 DOM START $ $9,500,000 START 05/18/21
Address 421 1st Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4081 sqft LOT 2710 PRICE $3,999,999 $PSF $980 DOM 84 DOM START $ $3,999,999 START 05/12/21
Address 404 17th Street BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 3149 sqft LOT 2636 PRICE $4,399,000 $PSF $1,397 DOM 85 DOM START $ $4,600,000 START 05/11/21
Address 424 20th Street BD/BA 8br/10ba SQFT 6073 sqft LOT 5148 PRICE $6,995,000 $PSF $1,152 DOM 91 DOM START $ $6,995,000 START 05/05/21
Address 4112 The Strand BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2550 sqft LOT 3507 PRICE $7,490,000 $PSF $2,937 DOM 93 DOM START $ $7,490,000 START 05/03/21
Address 509 Marine Avenue BD/BA 6br/5ba SQFT 4179 sqft LOT 3709 PRICE $4,399,000 $PSF $1,053 DOM 106 DOM START $ $4,399,000 START 04/20/21
Address 508 The Strand BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4325 sqft LOT 3337 PRICE $19,900,000 $PSF $4,601 DOM 139 DOM START $ $19,900,000 START 03/18/21
Address 224 32nd Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4268 sqft LOT 2698 PRICE $7,000,000 $PSF $1,640 DOM 314 DOM START $ $7,499,000 START 07/17/20
Address 4117 The Strand (aka Ocean Dr) Drive BD/BA 5br/3ba SQFT 2804 sqft LOT 3500 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $2,139 DOM 320 DOM START $ $5,999,000 START 09/18/20
Address 724 13th Street BD/BA 6br/7ba SQFT 4844 sqft LOT 2999 PRICE $4,995,000 $PSF $1,031 DOM 353 DOM START $ $5,495,000 START 08/21/19
Address 592 30th Street BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 4648 sqft LOT 4804 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $1,011 DOM 398 DOM START $ $4,699,000 START 06/05/20
Address 201 15th Street BD/BA 6br/3ba SQFT 2093 sqft LOT 2701 PRICE $3,899,000 $PSF $1,863 DOM 439 DOM START $ $4,550,000 START 04/22/20
Address 200 15th Street BD/BA 7br/6ba SQFT 3084 sqft LOT 2844 PRICE $4,399,000 $PSF $1,426 DOM 439 DOM START $ $4,950,000 START 04/22/20

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