Is MB Inventory Often 'Top Heavy'?

By Dave Fratello | May 21st, 2019

We posed a question earlier in the month and wanted to come back to it.

The question was whether the Manhattan Beach real estate market is currently "top heavy," possibly featuring more high-priced listings than demand can absorb. (See "Top Heavy? More Than 1/3rd of MB Listings Are $4M"," May 7.)

At the time, we cut the market into sub-$4M and over-$4M tiers, finding that 36% of active listings were priced in that upper tier.

Wasn't it curious, though, that in 2018, only 15% of sales had closed over $4M?

This was a hint that supply might be out of line with demand in 2019, but we were careful to say that we needed another look at the numbers.

With a new data run, we find something illuminating: Higher-end inventory seems to often swell quite a bit above the observed percentage of sales that eventually close at the higher end.

In other words, maybe it isn't so strange to find a disconnect, where a lot of the active market is higher-priced, even though a smaller percentage of sales by year end will actually fall in that higher-priced tier.

Consider some data. (These charts were produced for a forthcoming MBC report on the Manhattan Beach real estate market, which you'll hear more about soon.)

First, let's look at last year's sales totals for all of Manhattan Beach.

The two green areas show the percentage of 391 sales in Manhattan Beach last year that were priced at $3.5M and above.

It's a total of 21%, and it is the highest share ever recorded in Manhattan Beach.

You can see that the "entry level" of homes, priced up to $1.5M, made up just 15% of sales last year.

In 2012, that "low" price tier saw 55% of sales locally. Big change.

Take a look at how the high end has grown as a share of the local housing market.

In just the past 5 years, sales over $3.5M have doubled to 20-21%.

This market segment has grown while the lower end has shrunk considerably.

We kept the left-edge scale for this chart at 60% for a reason.

That's because we'll now use the same scale to look at inventory.

As of May 15 each year, the share of active inventory priced over $3.5M has always been considerably higher, in the 30s and 40s, and fully 50% as of May 15, 2019.

(These figures all come from our published MB Market Updates from each year.)

Some observations now.

First, it's still remarkable that half of the Manhattan Beach market is priced over $3.5M today. Standing on its own, that's an amazing stat.

Second, as we stated in the lead-up to these charts, it appears to not be very strange to have a disconnect between inventory levels by price tier and closed sales, at the end of the year, by price tier. Looking back, it seems that there's always a lot more for sale at the high end than one might expect.

Third, we'd like to know, as you might: Where the heck do all of these $3.5M+ listings go, if they're not sold?

It's possible this is a mid-Spring phenomenon. That is, sellers are all bringing out their higher-end offerings during prime time, hoping to sell quickly. But the reality is that pricier listings always take longer to sell. This may be an artificial "bump" in inventory at this time of year that works itself out by year-end.

Meantime, lots more homes priced under $3.5M are selling quickly, not sitting around on the market.

There's also a chance that higher-priced listings are disproportionately likely to cancel after failing to sell.

We'll take another look at these data and track some listings in a future report.

Meantime, enjoy a look at the latest $3.5M+ listings in Manhattan Beach. (At the time this post went live, there were 62 active; we can only display 48 within this blog post. Email subscribers will need to view this post online to see the listings.)

Newest Manhattan Beach Home Listings Priced $3.5M+

Rare Opportunity To Get On The Strand In Manhat...

OPEN HOUSE

4406 The Strand

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 3 BR
  • 3 BA
  • 2,138 SqFt.
  • N/A Lot

$4,895,000

Active

DOM: 127

Price:
$4,895,000
BR/BA:
3br / 3ba
Sq. ft.:
2,138
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
127

Charming Beach Cottage In Premier 100 Block Loc...

OPEN HOUSE

124 2nd Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 3 BR
  • 2 BA
  • 1,750 SqFt.
  • 2,707 Lot

$6,395,000

Active

DOM: 155

Price:
$6,395,000
BR/BA:
3br / 2ba
Sq. ft.:
1,750
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
155

New Stunning Coastal Modern Beach Townhome With...

OPEN HOUSE

2605 Vista Drive

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 4 BR
  • 4 BA
  • 2,678 SqFt.
  • N/A Lot

$4,499,000

Active

DOM: 183

Price:
$4,499,000
BR/BA:
4br / 4ba
Sq. ft.:
2,678
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
183

Welcome To This Quintessential Manhattan Beach ...

OPEN HOUSE

901 28th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 6 BR
  • 8 BA
  • 5,648 SqFt.
  • 6,006 Lot

$5,999,000

Active

DOM: 301

Price:
$5,999,000
BR/BA:
6br / 8ba
Sq. ft.:
5,648
Area:
143 - Manhattan Bch Tree
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
301
ADDRESS BD/BA SQFT LOT PRICE $PSF DOM START $ START
Address 2617 Vista Drive BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2810 sqft LOT 3494 PRICE $4,499,000 $PSF $1,601 DOM 0 DOM START $ $4,499,000 START 02/02/23
Address 3203 Vista Drive BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3178 sqft LOT 1751 PRICE $6,199,000 $PSF $1,951 DOM 7 DOM START $ $6,199,000 START 01/26/23
Address 800 N Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2900 sqft LOT 7201 PRICE $4,999,999 $PSF $1,724 DOM 8 DOM START $ $4,999,999 START 01/25/23
Address 125 9th Street BD/BA 6br/3ba SQFT 2316 sqft LOT 2704 PRICE $5,800,000 $PSF $2,504 DOM 8 DOM START $ $5,800,000 START 01/25/23
Address 628 35th Street BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2881 sqft LOT 5403 PRICE $3,895,000 $PSF $1,352 DOM 11 DOM START $ $3,895,000 START 01/22/23
Address 340 6th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3842 sqft LOT 2694 PRICE $7,450,000 $PSF $1,939 DOM 14 DOM START $ $7,450,000 START 01/19/23
Address 931 1st Street BD/BA 2br/1ba SQFT 948 sqft LOT 9595 PRICE $6,200,000 $PSF $6,540 DOM 14 DOM START $ $6,200,000 START 01/19/23
Address 409 30th St BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 2798 sqft LOT 1754 PRICE $5,000,000 $PSF $1,787 DOM 14 DOM START $ $5,000,000 START 01/17/23
Address 4016 The Strand BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 3578 sqft LOT 3493 PRICE $8,750,000 $PSF $2,446 DOM 16 DOM START $ $8,750,000 START 01/17/23
Address 441 26th Street BD/BA 6br/7ba SQFT 5972 sqft LOT 3514 PRICE $8,395,000 $PSF $1,406 DOM 20 DOM START $ $8,395,000 START 01/13/23
Address 3608 The Strand 1 BD/BA 2br/3ba SQFT 1777 sqft LOT 9334 PRICE $5,700,000 $PSF $3,208 DOM 41 DOM START $ $7,300,000 START 11/25/22
Address 750 29th Street BD/BA 6br/8ba SQFT 4835 sqft LOT 4803 PRICE $6,299,000 $PSF $1,303 DOM 49 DOM START $ $6,299,000 START 12/15/22
Address 413 9th Street BD/BA 6br/5ba SQFT 3800 sqft LOT 2695 PRICE $6,995,000 $PSF $1,841 DOM 56 DOM START $ $7,000,000 START 10/20/22
Address 400 10th Street BD/BA 4br/3ba SQFT 2964 sqft LOT 2711 PRICE $4,695,000 $PSF $1,584 DOM 66 DOM START $ $4,695,000 START 11/28/22
Address 2701 Manhattan Avenue BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2356 sqft LOT 2556 PRICE $4,650,000 $PSF $1,974 DOM 72 DOM START $ $5,250,000 START 11/22/22
Address 324 31st Street BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2317 sqft LOT 1810 PRICE $3,999,999 $PSF $1,726 DOM 79 DOM START $ $3,999,999 START 10/20/22
Address 616 12th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4300 sqft LOT 3008 PRICE $7,329,000 $PSF $1,704 DOM 99 DOM START $ $7,349,000 START 10/26/22
Address 124 4th Street BD/BA 5br/3ba SQFT 2363 sqft LOT 2697 PRICE $6,000,000 $PSF $2,539 DOM 105 DOM START $ $6,000,000 START 10/20/22
Address 1408 The Strand BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4517 sqft LOT 2983 PRICE $18,250,000 $PSF $4,040 DOM 119 DOM START $ $18,250,000 START 10/06/22
Address 3312 Palm BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 3599 sqft LOT 4633 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $1,306 DOM 124 DOM START $ $4,699,000 START 04/08/22
Address 2522 The Strand BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2660 sqft LOT 3498 PRICE $8,500,000 $PSF $3,195 DOM 127 DOM START $ $8,900,000 START 09/28/22
Address 4406 The Strand BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2138 sqft LOT 3506 PRICE $4,895,000 $PSF $2,290 DOM 127 DOM START $ $5,249,000 START 09/28/22
Address 124 2nd Street BD/BA 3br/2ba SQFT 1750 sqft LOT 2707 PRICE $6,395,000 $PSF $3,654 DOM 155 DOM START $ $6,875,000 START 08/31/22
Address 500 N Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 5br/8ba SQFT 8389 sqft LOT 10128 PRICE $22,000,000 $PSF $2,622 DOM 174 DOM START $ $22,000,000 START 08/12/22
Address 2605 Vista Drive BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2678 sqft LOT 3496 PRICE $4,499,000 $PSF $1,680 DOM 183 DOM START $ $4,699,000 START 08/03/22
Address 1908 The Strand BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 1733 sqft LOT 3314 PRICE $14,395,000 $PSF $8,306 DOM 191 DOM START $ $14,395,000 START 07/26/22
Address 200 S Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 5061 sqft LOT 6256 PRICE $7,500,000 $PSF $1,482 DOM 275 DOM START $ $7,999,999 START 04/27/22
Address 901 28th Street BD/BA 6br/8ba SQFT 5648 sqft LOT 6006 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $1,062 DOM 301 DOM START $ $6,249,000 START 04/07/22
Address 845 11th Street BD/BA 6br/5ba SQFT 4315 sqft LOT 9938 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $1,390 DOM 318 DOM START $ $7,000,000 START 03/17/22
Address 235 N Dianthus Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 5152 sqft LOT 6501 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $1,164 DOM 350 DOM START $ $8,000,000 START 02/17/22

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