Listed Under $2M, Sold for $2.2M

By Dave Fratello | March 13th, 2018

Someone tried to sell a sizable house in the Tree Section recently for just under $2M, but it didn't work.

2512 Pine Avenue Manhattan Beach CANope. 2512 Pine (4br/4ba, 3150 sqft.) was simply too appealing for a sub-$2M sale to happen.

The list price of $1.899M was like a clarion call out there to all the buyers looking to make Manhattan Beach their home.

That's 4br and more than 3000 sqft., the basic property profile for which most families are looking. And the location's decent. All that, offered for less than anyone could dream.

Trigger the multiple offers, the counter offers, the heavies trying to push their way to the front with great terms and lots of extra dollars...

2512 Pine Avenue Manhattan Beach CAIt all settled out with a cash deal at $2.200M, which closed Friday.

Maybe a dozen groups of buyers walked away sad, thwarted, thinking, "Aw, maybe that was too good to be true."

Clearly, it was too good to be true. But you could see that clearly at the time of the listing, if you looked at the data, as we did here when we ran the numbers for you.

Go to our original post if you would like a reminder (c'mon, join us for a deep dive!), see: "Rarity: Under $2M in the Tree Section."

But here today, we can also summarize:

3600 Pacific Avenue Manhattan Beach CABasically, last year, the only comparable, similarly sized home ready for move-in to sell for $2M or less was 3600 Pacific (4br/3ba, 3300 sqft.) (pictured), which traded for $2.000M and $607/PSF.

And the only one of 41 other sales under $2M that was bigger than 2450 sqft. was 2204 Oak (3br/3ba, 3235 sqft.), a very dated home on the "wrong" (commercial) side of Oak backing up to new construction (medical building) and with a rental car company parking lot for a neighbor. It sold for $1.715M and $530/PSF.

In short, if you saw a home in the Tree Section selling last year under $2M, it was much smaller than 2512 Pine, and/or with a somewhat challenging location.

So, this year, under $2M, 2512 Pine would have been an extraordinary deal.

Which is why it did not sell under $2M.

The jump to $2.200M for 2512 Pine bumped up its PPSF to $697/PSF.

940 Rosecrans Avenue Manhattan Beach CAThat is still at the lower end of the price range for Tree Section sales. It's the second-lowest PPSF of the year in the Tree Section, just behind 940 Rosecrans (5br/4ba, 3200 sqft., $2.069M, $645/PSF) (pictured), and would have been the 5th-lowest PPSF in 2017.

So even if the price rocketed $301K and 16% from the start, it's not a crazy sale.

We had clients discussing 2512 Pine while it was hot, and offered basically the same advice: That's too good to be true, so consider where it's likely to trade before jumping in.

We figured that it "should" sell between $2.050M-$2.100M, and would still be something of a steal at that price. But if a frenzy gathered, we imagined that might push the sale up to its "max" price, near $2.200M.

If it feels "risky" to list low and draw multiple offers, you have to look at examples like this one where the market surpasses expectations. You see that the strategy can work very well. 

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