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Median Price Skids – Manhattan Beach Market Update for 7/31/23

This is not Debbie Downer's website.

We look at data. We report it. ("Data Dave's website?")

And now we are reporting that the median home price in Manhattan Beach has dropped suddenly and precipitously. 

In a time of extremely low transaction volumes, data can do weird things. Specifically...

manhattan-beach-median-home-price-drop-July-2023

The median price, which had been at or over $3.000M since November 2021, is now under $3.000M.

At $2.800M, the local median price is back where it was in June 2021.

(All data above are based on a 12-month data set, sourced to the MLS.)

Manhattan Beach's median home price is suddenly down 11.5% from the peak, $3.166M, set almost a year ago in September 2022.

If you want to say you saw this coming, sorry, that's hard to believe.

After all, the median was still flying high at $3.100M, basically 10% higher, in May!

So what happened?

3316 Vista Drive, Manhattan Beach, CAFirst, we had a remarkably low volume of sales for this period of Aug. 1, 2022-July 31, 2023: Just 250 closings. (One was 3316 Crest at $2.800M, the "median house" for this period – pictured here.)

The average of the previous 9 years was 406 closings in the same August-to-July period of time.

Heck, the Aug. 2021-July 2022 period saw 434 sales, or 184 more than this year's data set.

With fewer sales, you may see more volatility in measures like this.

Maybe the biggest contributor to this sudden drop was the price points for sales within July. Among July's 20 closed sales, only 6 were over $3M. (At the bottom if this post, all of July's sales are itemized.) By contrast, June's 28 total sales were perfectly balanced between under/over $3M, with 14 above and 14 below.

With sales activity more concentrated under $3.000M recently, the median dropped.

The median price is the middle point, where half the homes in town sell for more than the median, and half sell for less. So when you have only 250 sales to go by, and by far the greatest share of recent sales were under the prior median price, the position of that median is going to go sliding down. And it did.

We also noted that there were 8 sales in 2023 between $2.700M-$3.000M, 5 of them in just the last couple months.

Five sales this year were between $2.775M-$2.850M, creating quite a cluster around that $2.800M figure.

Could this median price drop be reversed with a few more sales? 

Maybe not.

There are 36 pending sales in town now, with 15 under $3M and 21 over $3M. That is an imbalance that would work to raise the median price. But if all of them closed right now at their last list prices, it looks like the median price citywide would bump up only to $2.900M.

Meantime, 38 out of 55 current active listings are priced over $3M, but there's no guarantee of if, or where, they'll all sell.

We're going to assume for now that it'll take a while to see the median back over $3M.

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Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 7/31/23:

> 59 active listings as of 7/31/23 (+2 from 7/15/23) 

> 48 SFRs (-1)

> 11 THs (+3)

See the Inventory list as of 7/31/23 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.

Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:

> Tree Section: 13 actives (-2)

> Sand Section: 20 actives (+2)

> Hill Section: 11 actives (-1)

> East MB: 15 actives (+3)

We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.

Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.

Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 7/31/23".

 

All July 2023 Home Sales in Manhattan Beach

ADDRESSBD/BASQFTLOTCLOSED PRICE$PSFDOMSTART $SOLD
677 19th Street 6/7 5,592 9,626 $8,770,000 $1,609 21 $8,995,000 07/31/23
1467 5th Street 3/1 847 4,849 $1,600,000 $1,741 9 $1,475,000 07/31/23
132 8th Street 3/3 1,470 1,352 $3,000,000 $1,973 1 $2,899,900 07/28/23
316 1st Place 4/3 2,168 1,353 $2,530,000 $1,107 16 $2,400,000 07/27/23
1437 21st Street 5/3 3,495 7,500 $3,630,000 $1,102 23 $3,850,000 07/27/23
1151 Magnolia Avenue 3/1 1,270 4,852 $1,615,000 $1,279 94 $1,775,000 07/26/23
1637 Nelson Avenue 2/1 1,069 7,500 $1,825,000 $2,058 57 $2,200,000 07/17/23
2500 Pine Ave 3/2 1,299 4,480 $1,911,000 $1,539 25 $1,999,000 07/17/23
1150 23rd Street 3/1 984 6,002 $1,780,000 $1,677 10 $1,650,000 07/14/23
3108 Elm Avenue 2/1 823 4,481 $1,700,000 $2,023 3 $1,665,000 07/14/23
932 10th Street 4/2 2,196 7,505 $2,715,000 $1,230 5 $2,700,000 07/14/23
1208 23rd Street 3/3 2,157 5,007 $1,900,000 $927 9 $2,000,000 07/13/23
1002 10th Street 5/6 6,076 9,000 $8,000,000 $1,317 N/A $8,000,000 07/12/23
1220 9th Street 4/3 3,085 6,254 $3,350,000 $1,133 23 $3,495,000 07/10/23
1305 Faymont Avenue 2/1 884 5,426 $1,425,000 $1,697 45 $1,500,000 07/07/23
2809 Oak Avenue 5/6 3,130 4,403 $4,300,000 $1,482 22 $4,640,000 07/07/23
1500 Faymont Avenue 3/3 1,835 5,392 $2,575,000 $1,226 5 $2,250,000 07/07/23
412 15th Place 3/4 1,871 2,706 $2,425,000 $1,389 87 $2,599,000 07/06/23
229 23rd Street 3/4 1,987 1,500 $3,500,000 $1,822 59 $3,620,000 07/05/23
527 24th Street 4/2 2,106 4,052 $3,075,000 $1,562 9 $3,289,000 07/03/23

 


Please see our blog disclaimer.

Listings presented above are supplied via the MLS and are brokered by a variety of agents and firms, not Dave Fratello or Edge Real Estate Agency, unless so stated with the listing. Images and links to properties above lead to a full MLS display of information, including home details, lot size, all photos, and listing broker and agent information and contact information.

Based on information from California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. as of April 24th, 2024 at 9:10am PDT. This information is for your personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties you may be interested in purchasing. Display of MLS data is usually deemed reliable but is NOT guaranteed accurate by the MLS. Buyers are responsible for verifying the accuracy of all information and should investigate the data themselves or retain appropriate professionals. Information from sources other than the Listing Agent may have been included in the MLS data. Unless otherwise specified in writing, Broker/Agent has not and will not verify any information obtained from other sources. The Broker/Agent providing the information contained herein may or may not have been the Listing and/or Selling Agent.