MB Market Update for 9/30/19

By Dave Fratello | October 2nd, 2019

There's just a little bit left of this year's market, perhaps a busy October before things calm down.

And we could use a little rally.

That's because sales totals for the year so far are now second-lowest of the last 8 years.

The 286 sales from Jan. 1-Sept. 30 are no small potatoes.

Those nearly 300 sales represent almost $1.6 billion in sales of local real estate over 9 months.

But we're down 7% in the number of sales year-over-year, much like how Q1-Q3 2018 saw an 8% drop from that super fantastic 2017. And we've got fewer sales in the first three quarters than we saw in 2016, a year which felt wobbly, though of course 2017 rocketed ahead just after.

Just as there is a mild downward trend in the sales volume this year, measured by the number of homes, there is also a drop in the year-to-date total amount spent on local homes.

Check out this graph of dollar volume for local home sales spanning the same 8-year stretch of time.

We don't often cite dollar volume for comparisons, because with home price increases over time, the dollar volume changes can be misleading.

However, for the period of 2017-2019, prices have been relatively similar.

So that means comparing at least these past three years' worth of data should be valid. And the story isn't pretty if you only look at three years.

A dropoff from $1.925 billion to $1.576 billion for Q1-Q3 2017 to 2019 is a drop of 18%.

Sure, we had to come down from that "sugar high" year of 2017, but this is quite a drop. It's also a 10% drop from 2018 to 2019, meaning the dollar volume drop is a bit greater than the percentage drop in the number of sales.

On the positive side, 2019's sales volume is the third-best in history for Q1-Q3. (Whoops, did we bury the lede?)

Take your silver linings when you can get them.

Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 9/15/19:

  • 130 active listings as of 9/30/19 (+4 from 9/15/19) 
  • 104 SFRs (+3)
  • 26 THs (f+1)

See the Inventory list as of 9/30/19 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.

Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:

  • Tree Section: 26 actives (-2)
  • Sand Section: 63 actives (+6)
  • Hill Section:14 actives (-2)
  • East MB: 27 (+2)

We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.

Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.

Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 9/30/19."

Please see our blog disclaimer.

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