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New Construx Sales Dipped Slightly in '18

By Dave Fratello | January 30th, 2019

An 8-year new construction boom in Manhattan Beach continued strongly last year.

With 54 sales of newly built homes, the city hit its second-highest total since 2011.

manhattan-beach-new-construction-home-sales But, as was so often the case with 2018 real estate data, last year didn't quite hit the peaks that 2017 had hit.

The #1 year for new construction sales was 2017, with 61 sales.

(As is typical, we rely on MLS-reported data here. Many new construction homes sell pre-market, during construction, although most are also reported on the MLS after closing. But some transactions do stay private.)

This makes for 258 new construction sales in the 8-year span we're studying.

There wasn't much new building in 2009-2010, so we didn't record data from then.

We did scrutinize the MLS data closely to eliminate duplicates and major remodels sold as "new" when the homes weren't truly new. So that 258 figure is reliable.

We can actually observe that 60% of all new homes sold in the last 8 years were sold in just the past 3 years: 2016-18.

That's kinda neeto, but also significant: It took a while for the market to stabilize, for builders to start buying lots and building and for homes to come to market. It's an 18-month to 24-month lag from lot to new house.

So, you can say market supply spooled up gradually and still found plenty of demand. (Pictured here is 1721 8th, which set a record for East MB new construx at $3.950M.)

Buyers want new construction, but with that lead time built into the process, one question is how much longer builders and investors will keep starting new projects.

Lots are pricey now, but builders are still getting land when they can. And there are several new homes lined up to come out early this year.

Will we hit 50 sales again this year, though? Not sure there's that much supply coming.

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