Where Inventory Has Grown [Report Excerpt]

By Dave Fratello | November 21st, 2019

Time for some deeper dives in the data.

Our mid-November market update notes the recent steep, steep dropoff of inventory, which is partly an expected seasonal phenomenon. (Sellers don't care to be on the market for the slower holiday season.)

But in our new (free!) MB Market Report, we've taken a larger perspective on Manhattan Beach real estate inventory levels, and where that inventory has been coming from, dropping or growing.

The past 4 years have had somewhat more "normal" levels of housing inventory, as seen in a chart in yesterday's mid-November post.

But what helps explain the jump to "normal" from "tight" inventory from 2013-15?

In the big picture, it's the Sand Section that has seen the most persistent growth in inventory. 

OK. Yay! More beach homes!

Here's a chart that's in one of the freely available chapters of the report.

The most lasting push upward in lingering inventory is in the Sand Section, beginning with 2016. 

Two more trends, perhaps related, are evident in other Sand Section-specific data from the report.

First, we look to data in our chapter on Sand Section sales trends. (Requires login.)

Our chart in that chapter shows a peak in annualized sales in the Sand Section in early 2013 - 153 sales in the 12 months leading up to then - and a steep drop over 18 months. 

Sales picked up again to 116 sales (annualized) by early 2015, but slipped again to a low of 89 sales in the 12 months before January 2017. 

Sales were dropping at the beach while inventory was growing. Again, these factors could be related, as more unsold homes means higher inventory. But why weren't beach houses selling at the same pace, even with more options to choose from?

Prices have wobbled in the Sand Section over this time.

As seen in our Sand Section sales chapter (login required), the median price for the Sand Section dropped steadily from Spring 2016 into Summer 2017, but then leaped upward, going as high as $3.200M in Dec. 2017. That's not necessarily an expected trend with higher inventory. (Caveat: Individual sections of MB have small sample sizes for annualized median prices, around 100 sales in the Sand.)

The median PPSF for Sand Section properties has been somewhat less bumpy. But it shows a recent down trend, one that you maybe would expect with higher inventory.

Sand Section PPSF peaked in May 2016 at $1,406/PSF and has slowly edged down to $1,275/PSF at the end of Q3 2019, a drop of 9% over 3 years, 4 months. (See more in the Sand Section PPSF chapter [login required]). 

The whole report is somewhat like this. We have granular data on the market as a whole and on individual sections of town. 

In some places, big trends are apparent. In others, one set of data may appear to contradict another. 

We want you to have all the data and to be free to make your own assessments. 

We do offer some conclusions from the whole sweep of the data in our conclusions chapter. (Login required.)

Enjoy the report. As we have noted, if you're not yet registered on MB Confidential, you'll just need to supply basic registration info. If you're already a member, you'll just need to tick a box to access the report.

Please see our blog disclaimer.

Latest Listings Among
Manhattan Beach Homes For Sale