Why Is Pricing This Lot So Confusing?

By Dave Fratello | June 6th, 2019

There's a big lot with some views in East Manhattan.

Absolute confusion about its value comes free.

1161 Duncan Drive Manhattan Beach CAWe're talking about 1161 Duncan Drive, which only a few months ago had a different address. (Talk about confusing.)

In February, it was 300 Kuhn.

It was also 300 Kuhn during its 2017 listing.

Way-back-when, in Sept. 2017, an out-of-area agent listed the lot (with 1950s ranch-style house) for $8.200M.

Wow.

1161 Duncan Drive Manhattan Beach CALand sales at that price point are rare. Land sales on the east side at that point are even more rare.

And mis-pricing that drastic is... reasonably rare.

How badly mis-priced was it?

They realized part of their mistake within weeks. A full $1.7M came off the top and it was at $6.500M just under 3 weeks after start.

Soon after, it was in escrow. Wow, was that a $6.5M lot?

No!

The buyer came along and sheared off another $1.7M.

The sale closed for $4.800M in Oct. 2017.

Somehow, despite a breathtaking pricing error, they had sold the lot just 5 weeks after listing it... albeit for 41% less than they first were asking.

But plans change, y'know.

In January this year, another out-of-area agent listed 300 Kuhn for $5.800M. That was easy to read: Someone was maybe thinking of building, but might prefer to get out with a profit and move on.

That experiment lasted 4 weeks and it was gone.

By mid-February, the property was rechristened 1161 Duncan Drive. It also now had a local agent and a new price: $5.500M. Then $5.195M.

After 3 months, no deal. Cue the new agent.

1161 Duncan Drive Manhattan Beach CAThey say it's lucky to be the third agent.

Everyone must be feeling lucky, because now 1161 Duncan Drive is asking more than $1M more: $6.270M.

You want to ask us: What's it really worth?

Well, we see what someone paid.

We see what people didn't pay earlier this year.

Not really thinkin' it's $6.270M, but you have to reality test your ideas in this market, don't you?

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