The $3m Club in the Trees

The higher end of the Tree Section includes 30+ homes listed at $2m+.

This segment is largely stalled, with very few sales or new escrows since mid-July. There are no sales from among MLS-listed properties pending at this time.

Drawing MBC's interest today is the even more rarefied $3m+ segment.

As builders have pushed up the price ceiling recently, they've had some success. Sales since Spring:

• 925 27th (5br/6ba, 4150 sq. ft.) – $3.0m
• 2104 Palm (5br/6ba, 4500 sq. ft.) – $3.025m
• 2802 Pine (5br/4ba, 3600 sq. ft.) – $3.1m
• 927 27th (5br/6ba, 4400 sq. ft.) – $3.15m
• 717 31st (5br/4ba, 3500 sq. ft.) – $3.2m (pictured)
  
• 712 31st (5br/4ba, 3800 sq. ft.) – $3.325m

Also, the capstones to this group are a few off-MLS sales, 2603 Laurel at $3.75m (sorry, no house details) and two 15th St. houses (604 and 608), each about 4,800 sq. ft. and pending at $4.2m.

Of the sales, two took $250k reductions from initial asking (925 27th and 717 31st, which just closed the other day), while 2104 Palm took $650k off. The rest sold fairly close to their list prices.

So, we've seen 6 sales from MLS-listed homes, 9 in total, and there are 9 active now:

• 742 33rd (click for details) (4br/6ba, 4025 sq. ft.) – $3.189m
• 3200 Pacific (4br/4ba, 4425 sq. ft.) – $3.199m
• 2100 Fluornoy (4br/5ba, 3600 sq. ft.) – $3.2m
• 644 33rd (5br/5ba, 4200 sq. ft.) – $3.295m
• 570 27th (5br/4ba, 4100 sq. ft.) – $3.299m
• 3305 Laurel (5br/5ba, 4350 sq. ft.) – $3.650m
• 613 15th (6br/8ba, 5500 sq. ft.) – $4.179m
• 1718 Pacific (5br/4ba, 4200 sq. ft.) – $4.299m
• 769 33rd (6br/4ba, 5000 sq. ft.) – $4.5m

Of these, 5 have made price reductions since joining the market – 3305 Laurel (pictured) is down $100k from initial list, 742 33rd is down $105k, 1718 Pacific is down $200k, 3200 Pacific is down $250k from this year's asking price (and down $700k from last year's shoot-the-moon price) and 570 27th is down $600k, as MBC noted here. One former member of the $3m club (3011 Elm) is now at $2.8m, priced below its purchase price from 2005 (as noted here).

Which of these listings is not like the others? It's 1718 Pacific (sorry, no Redfin link – but here's an MBC story on the home).

Someone ready to spend $4m+ will ask why they should pay more for Pacific when it's 1200 sq. ft. smaller than new construction on Martyrs hill (at $4.179). MBC has the sense that the sellers had no idea how to price Pacific and figured the lot (almost 10k sq. ft.) was such a plus that people would pay a giant premium. Well, a big lot is nice, but this one could well be overpriced by $1m or more. We'll see.

Much of the new construction is high-class, and should draw continuing interest despite the overall sluggishness of the market. This price range is where much of the action in MB has been recently.

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UPDATE: As we said, this is the most active price range. Wouldn't you know it, 1718 Pacific went into escrow within hours of this story's publication. That, or the agent is playing games to make MBC look bad :) – them's the perils of opinions and predictions...