You might feel a little ripple of optimism creeping into the MB market these days. If so, it's based on looking forward, not looking back.
Now that March has closed, we can see that there was virtually no change in SFR sales activity in MB between the horrid 4th Quarter of 2007 and the 1st Quarter of 2008.
When we…
You might feel a little ripple of optimism creeping into the MB market these days. If so, it's based on looking forward, not looking back.
Now that March has closed, we can see that there was virtually no change in SFR sales activity in MB between the horrid 4th Quarter of 2007 and the 1st Quarter of 2008.
When we look at the whole decade, the 1st quarter was much worse, compared with other 1st quarters, than Q4 '07 was compared with other 4th quarters.
As measured by SFR sales closing in these periods, Q1 2008 saw
1 less sale (
48) than the previous quarter (
49).
(Our closed-sale data come from the MLS and include SFRs in all of MB, not just west of Sepulveda. Our source is Kaye Thomas' blog, where she has posted data going back to 2000.)
Both quarters were the worst of the decade, but Q1 sales were much weaker compared to the first quarters of prior years:
- Q1 2008 sales were 54% lower than the next-highest total (2006).
- Sales in the weak 4th quarter of 2007 were just 25% lower than the next-highest year (also 2006).
This makes the sluggish 1st quarter seem all the more a shock.
It's no big surprise how we got here:
- A slow 4th quarter for local RE sales, continued economic uncertainty and tight mortgage credit.
- A January with 13 sales, whereas prior years in this decade had ranged from 30-63 sales in the same month. (See "Off a Cliff in January.")
- A February with 15 sales – the total had ranged from 29-55 in the same month from 2000-07.
Like the months that came before, March saw the fewest closed sales of the decade, about 50% or less of the sales totals in many of those years.
It's worth noting that 2007 rocketed ahead in March, with closed sales totaling 50 that month – touching a peak hit in March 3 times previously in this decade. In other words, last year, March was more "normal" than not, at least as the 2000s go.
This year, March helped to define the new normal – anemic sales that require a look further back into the slump of the 1990s, or earlier, to find proper points of comparison.
Please see our blog disclaimer.
Listings presented above are supplied via the MLS and are brokered by a variety of agents and firms, not Dave Fratello or Edge Real Estate Agency, unless so stated with the listing. Images and links to properties above lead to a full MLS display of information, including home details, lot size, all photos, and listing broker and agent information and contact information.
Based on information from California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. as of March 21st, 2023 at 11:15pm PDT. This information is for your personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties you may be interested in purchasing. Display of MLS data is usually deemed reliable but is NOT guaranteed accurate by the MLS. Buyers are responsible for verifying the accuracy of all information and should investigate the data themselves or retain appropriate professionals. Information from sources other than the Listing Agent may have been included in the MLS data. Unless otherwise specified in writing, Broker/Agent has not and will not verify any information obtained from other sources. The Broker/Agent providing the information contained herein may or may not have been the Listing and/or Selling Agent.
