As we roll into this new year with a lot of holdover listings, it's probably no great surprise to see average days on market increasing further.
When last MBC reported average DOM from our independent tracking figures, at the end of Q3 2007 (see "Avg. DOM Creeping Up
"), the average DOM for all SFRs west of Sepulveda was 110
Now it's 136
. That figure is +50%
from the figure at the end of July, and up 25 DOM (+22%)
over Sept. 30, 2007.
If you were to look back at the report on DOM by section from then, the big differences are in the Hills and Trees. Then, the Hill Section had a few more listings than the 6 actives now, but one was a super-long-timer (844 11th
), and it skewed the average up to 153. With that one now sold, the number stands at more reasonable at 91
, exactly the same as the Sand Section figure.
The Tree Section, however, is a whole different story. With average DOM of 160
, the figure is now up 50 DOM (+45%)
just since Sept. 30, 2007. Within the Trees, the True average DOM for listings <$2m is 127
, and for those at $2m+, it's 212
. So, remember that if you're looking at new construction in the Trees – if it hasn't already been on market 7 months, it's practically a new listing.
Keep in mind, MBC's True DOM figures won't agree with DOM figures found in every other source. We find the highly technical explanations for bogus re-lists much too confusing, totally beyond our comprehension, so we developed an alternative methodology for counting days on market:
- We note the date a listing begins, and
- We count the number of days from there.
If you were able to follow that, we count the "number" of "days" that a home is "on market." This is not necessarily what "DOM" means to everyone else.
As we have noted elsewhere, technically, according to local MLS rules, a listing must cancel out for 60 days to get a fresh DOM number. A lot of year-end cancellations did not sit out 60 days, so we wind up counting some days that they were not viewable on the MLS. Oh, those silly local rules. Someone's gotta follow them.
We have, however, excluded two anomalous listings: 4419 Highland
and 644 33rd
, which each began on the MLS pre-completion.
There were two others in the Tree Section $2m+ range that also started pre-completion but which we chose not to exclude, because their current DOM figures were actually helping to lower the average in that segment. We tried to be nice.A final note:
A reader points out that the South Bay Assn. of Realtors issued this press release the other day (click to download, 2pp., PDF)
, which claims that in December, the average DOM in the whole of the South Bay was a teeny-weeny 58 DOM, actually reduced from December 2006. Either homes are selling like hotcakes outside MB, or there's something fishy about those DOM figures, eh?