Quick: What's a double lot in the Hill Section worth?
Go ahead and guess – anything.
Now, did you come closer to $8m, or $5m?
Last year at about this time, 222 N. Poinsettia
, a double lot totaling 13,800 sq. ft. with some views, hit the market at $7.9m
That was a guess.
There have been adjustments since.
This week, it's down yet again – $700k in one chop. Now all the way down to $5.295m
This, at least, is an educated guess.
Experience showed that the dirt wasn't going to fetch $8m, or $7m, or $6m. So it was time to get closer to $5m.
As the property history (via Redfin) here shows, a cut of $700k was the smallest yet. The previous cuts were each at, or near, $1m.
Total chops to date: $2.605m (-33%).
That has to be some kind of record.
It's still the priciest of several lot offerings in the Hill Section (see "More Hill Dirt Options
" from February).
Earlier this year, when the listing for 222 N. Poinsettia was still at $5.995m, your blog author tiptoed out onto a limb and said
At this point, we would not be shocked – though the sellers might be – to see another $1m shaved off before a deal is made.
The price is still $300k above the level that would make that sorta-prediction turn out to be correct.
Off the hill, down by the sand – well, right on the beach – there's a similar situation at 3216 The Strand
, another would-be trophy property that has been working on finding its market price.
Briefly, try the same exercise as before. A Strand lot in the 30s. What's the value?
The current listing began at $5.9m
in early March, but that wasn't the opening bid.
Last November, this one was touted as "charming and livable" and yet listed "for lot value" at $7.3m
. (See "And Then There Were 4
Now 3216 The Strand is at $5.199m
– down $2.101m
from that high start.
It's still listed for lot value – $2m later – and now touted as the "Best priced piece of land available on The Strand in Manhattan Beach."
Unlike the Hill Section double-lot, which suffers partly from a lack of recent land sales or other comps, there are a few recent Strand sales, including scrapers, providing some data.
Most significant among them is nearby 3404 The Strand
, which closed for $5.35m
in early May. But at 3404 the buyers got a big, unique home that just needs updates if they keep it. At 3216, no such luck – that duplex has to go.
Both of these lot sales could go near $5m. Just a guess.