Inventory Is 'Top-Heavy,' But 2020 Has More Higher-End Sales

By Dave Fratello | July 22nd, 2020

There's no doubt that the Manhattan Beach real estate market is busy now.

We were struck, though, to see that the vast majority of inventory for sale is priced well above the current median price.

Specifically, 73% of homes active on the market as of July 21 were priced at $2.500M or above. (Out of 131 active listings.)

This includes quite nearly half the inventory being priced over $3.500M.

The median price for sold homes in Manhattan Beach as of June 30 was $2.475M. (That's for 12 months leading to June 30.)

An observation like this raises the obvious question of whether there's "too much" higher-end inventory. Or, perhaps (?) the median price is poised for an incredible breakout when a bunch of those higher-priced homes all sell.

Historically, higher-priced homes simply won't sell at the same pace and the median will likely end up fairly steady.

You can see that in today's pending sales totals. (There are 77 pending sales.)

Take a moment to compare the colored slices in the pie charts. While 49% of active inventory is in green ($3.5M+), only 25% of pending sales are.

Meantime, the balance (basically 3/4ths) of the homes in escrow are below $3.5M.

But don't give up yet on the idea of the median price jumping.

Only 37% of homes in escrow are $2.5M or below. That number "should" be closer to 50%. Otherwise, $2.475M isn't going to stay the median. Not for long.

The single biggest slice of the pending pie (mmmm, pending pie...) is the 36% priced between $2.5M-$3.5M. Simply put, that price range is where the action is.

So we've looked at where we are, where we're going... Where have we been?

In 2020 to date, closed sales look more like a market with the median price near $2.500M.

Check out those slices again. See how perfectly the bottom half of the chart - sold homes of $2.499M or below - hits exactly 50%.

That's how you know the median is $2.500M.

(Nerdy note: We calculate the median based on a full 12 months, in this case leading up to June 30, 2020. This chart shows only homes sold Jan. 1-July 21, 2020. Still, they match!)

Head back up to the top again. Basically half of today's inventory is priced over $3.500M, but you see that among sales to date, only 28% were sold for more than $3.500M.

Still, there is one bit of news in this data regarding higher-priced home sales.

In prior posts here at MBC, we've analyzed this phenomenon of the disconnect between high-priced inventory and actual sales. (For instance, this May 2019 post.)

We had shown that the percentage of home sales over $3.5M has been growing steadily in recent years, as prices rose.

The years 2017-2019 were pretty consistent, with 20-21% of sales at this higher price point.

Year to date, however, here in the COVID-19 market, Manhattan Beach has a steeper share of sales at the higher end, 28% among closings Jan. 1-July 21. Wow.

Remember, we have 25% of pending sales in that $3.5M+ price range. That's somewhat consistent, and also above the ~20% average of closings over $3.5M in the past few years.

Neither figure is near 50%, the share of inventory over $3.5M, but maybe something's up this year... the appetite for higher-end Manhattan Beach homes.

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Below, enjoy a look at the latest $3.5M+ listings in Manhattan Beach. (At the time this post went live, there were 64 active; we can only display 48 within this blog post. Email subscribers will need to view this post online to see the listings.)

Newest Manhattan Beach Home Listings Priced $3.5M+

Auction: Bid October 20-25. Previously Offered ...

OPEN HOUSE

1400 19th St

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 5 BR
  • 5 BA
  • 4,301 SqFt.
  • 6,942 Lot

$4,000,000

Active

DOM: 15

Price:
$4,000,000
BR/BA:
5br / 5ba
Sq. ft.:
4,301
Area:
146 - Manhattan Bch Heights/Lib Vlg
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
15

New Stunning Coastal Modern Beach Townhome With...

OPEN HOUSE

2605 Vista Drive

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 4 BR
  • 4 BA
  • 2,678 SqFt.
  • N/A Lot

$4,699,000

Active

DOM: 56

Price:
$4,699,000
BR/BA:
4br / 4ba
Sq. ft.:
2,678
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
56

Coastal Plantation In The Heart Of Manhattan Be...

OPEN HOUSE

724 13th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 6 BR
  • 7 BA
  • 4,844 SqFt.
  • 2,999 Lot

$5,695,000

Active

DOM: 61

Price:
$5,695,000
BR/BA:
6br / 7ba
Sq. ft.:
4,844
Area:
143 - Manhattan Bch Tree
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
61

Dream Location In This Beautifully Updated Home...

OPEN HOUSE

317 8th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 3 BR
  • 3 BA
  • 2,176 SqFt.
  • 2,695 Lot

$4,399,000

Active

DOM: 83

Price:
$4,399,000
BR/BA:
3br / 3ba
Sq. ft.:
2,176
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
83

Welcome To This Quintessential Manhattan Beach ...

OPEN HOUSE

901 28th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 6 BR
  • 8 BA
  • 5,648 SqFt.
  • 6,006 Lot

$6,249,000

Active

DOM: 174

Price:
$6,249,000
BR/BA:
6br / 8ba
Sq. ft.:
5,648
Area:
143 - Manhattan Bch Tree
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
174
ADDRESS BD/BA SQFT LOT PRICE $PSF DOM START $ START
Address 2522 The Strand BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2660 sqft LOT 3498 PRICE $8,900,000 $PSF $3,346 DOM 0 DOM START $ $8,900,000 START 09/28/22
Address 4406 The Strand BD/BA 2br/3ba SQFT 2138 sqft LOT 3506 PRICE $5,249,000 $PSF $2,455 DOM 0 DOM START $ $5,249,000 START 09/28/22
Address 232 2nd Street BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 2020 sqft LOT 1355 PRICE $4,595,000 $PSF $2,275 DOM 6 DOM START $ $4,595,000 START 09/22/22
Address 1400 19th St BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4301 sqft LOT 6942 PRICE $4,000,000 $PSF $930 DOM 15 DOM START $ $4,000,000 START 09/13/22
Address 4016 The Strand BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 3578 sqft LOT 1746 PRICE $8,895,000 $PSF $2,486 DOM 16 DOM START $ $8,895,000 START 09/12/22
Address 316 28th Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 3450 sqft LOT 2220 PRICE $8,795,000 $PSF $2,549 DOM 16 DOM START $ $8,795,000 START 09/12/22
Address 445 33rd Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4353 sqft LOT 2702 PRICE $7,495,000 $PSF $1,722 DOM 22 DOM START $ $7,495,000 START 09/06/22
Address 472 29th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4603 sqft LOT 2998 PRICE $4,495,000 $PSF $977 DOM 22 DOM START $ $4,495,000 START 09/06/22
Address 124 2nd Street BD/BA 3br/2ba SQFT 1750 sqft LOT 2707 PRICE $6,875,000 $PSF $3,929 DOM 28 DOM START $ $6,875,000 START 08/31/22
Address 121 15th Street BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 1900 sqft LOT 2699 PRICE $3,950,000 $PSF $2,079 DOM 30 DOM START $ $3,950,000 START 08/29/22
Address 1300 11th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4007 sqft LOT 7863 PRICE $4,995,000 $PSF $1,247 DOM 31 DOM START $ $4,995,000 START 08/27/22
Address 219 N Dianthus Street BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 3300 sqft LOT 3352 PRICE $4,100,000 $PSF $1,242 DOM 33 DOM START $ $4,300,000 START 08/26/22
Address 400 10th Street BD/BA 4br/3ba SQFT 2964 sqft LOT 2711 PRICE $4,999,000 $PSF $1,687 DOM 47 DOM START $ $5,200,000 START 08/12/22
Address 513 N Dianthus Street BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2770 sqft LOT 3250 PRICE $3,500,000 $PSF $1,264 DOM 47 DOM START $ $3,600,000 START 08/12/22
Address 500 N Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 5br/8ba SQFT 8389 sqft LOT 10128 PRICE $22,000,000 $PSF $2,622 DOM 47 DOM START $ $22,000,000 START 08/12/22
Address 400 10th Street BD/BA 4br/3ba SQFT 2964 sqft LOT 2711 PRICE $4,999,000 $PSF $1,687 DOM 47 DOM START $ $5,200,000 START 08/12/22
Address 319 S Dianthus Street BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 5685 sqft LOT 5953 PRICE $12,999,000 $PSF $2,287 DOM 48 DOM START $ $12,999,000 START 08/11/22
Address 3203 Vista Drive BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3178 sqft LOT 1751 PRICE $6,750,000 $PSF $2,124 DOM 49 DOM START $ $6,750,000 START 08/10/22
Address 2605 Vista Drive BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2678 sqft LOT 3496 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $1,755 DOM 56 DOM START $ $4,699,000 START 08/03/22
Address 733 12th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4383 sqft LOT 3005 PRICE $4,995,000 $PSF $1,140 DOM 56 DOM START $ $4,995,000 START 08/03/22
Address 724 13th Street BD/BA 6br/7ba SQFT 4844 sqft LOT 2999 PRICE $5,695,000 $PSF $1,176 DOM 61 DOM START $ $5,695,000 START 07/29/22
Address 3408 Maple Avenue BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 3620 sqft LOT 4640 PRICE $4,395,000 $PSF $1,214 DOM 62 DOM START $ $4,600,000 START 07/28/22
Address 1908 The Strand BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 1733 sqft LOT 3314 PRICE $14,395,000 $PSF $8,306 DOM 64 DOM START $ $14,395,000 START 07/26/22
Address 216 4th Street BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 2754 sqft LOT 1350 PRICE $6,995,000 $PSF $2,540 DOM 71 DOM START $ $7,499,000 START 06/29/22
Address 931 1st Street BD/BA 2br/1ba SQFT 948 sqft LOT 9595 PRICE $6,500,000 $PSF $6,857 DOM 76 DOM START $ $7,300,000 START 07/14/22
Address 119 S Dianthus Ave. BD/BA 3br/2ba SQFT 2364 sqft LOT 6239 PRICE $5,899,000 $PSF $2,495 DOM 78 DOM START $ $5,899,000 START 07/12/22
Address 317 8th Street BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2176 sqft LOT 2695 PRICE $4,399,000 $PSF $2,022 DOM 83 DOM START $ $4,575,000 START 07/07/22
Address 800 N Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2900 sqft LOT 7201 PRICE $4,999,999 $PSF $1,724 DOM 90 DOM START $ $4,999,999 START 06/30/22
Address 308 The Strand BD/BA 6br/8ba SQFT 6978 sqft LOT 3336 PRICE $36,000,000 $PSF $5,159 DOM 97 DOM START $ $36,000,000 START 05/26/22
Address 917 Pacific Avenue BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 4200 sqft LOT 5261 PRICE $4,600,000 $PSF $1,095 DOM 105 DOM START $ $5,250,000 START 06/15/22
Address 113 S Dianthus BD/BA 3br/1ba SQFT 1194 sqft LOT 6250 PRICE $5,299,000 $PSF $4,438 DOM 106 DOM START $ $5,600,000 START 06/14/22
Address 114 N Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 6400 sqft LOT 6753 PRICE $8,499,000 $PSF $1,328 DOM 111 DOM START $ $9,200,000 START 06/09/22
Address 2415 Manhattan Avenue BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 4275 sqft LOT 2705 PRICE $10,500,000 $PSF $2,456 DOM 118 DOM START $ $10,995,000 START 06/02/22
Address 459 35th Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3552 sqft LOT 2701 PRICE $4,199,000 $PSF $1,182 DOM 131 DOM START $ $7,500,000 START 05/20/22
Address 2521 Alma Avenue BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3423 sqft LOT 4052 PRICE $4,000,000 $PSF $1,169 DOM 132 DOM START $ $4,000,000 START 05/19/22
Address 3000 The Strand BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 3949 sqft LOT 3514 PRICE $15,500,000 $PSF $3,925 DOM 133 DOM START $ $17,000,000 START 05/18/22
Address 817 Pacific Avenue BD/BA 3br/2ba SQFT 1510 sqft LOT 6254 PRICE $5,499,000 $PSF $3,642 DOM 139 DOM START $ $6,050,000 START 05/12/22
Address 621 36th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4066 sqft LOT 5404 PRICE $5,195,000 $PSF $1,278 DOM 141 DOM START $ $5,195,000 START 05/10/22
Address 200 S Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 5061 sqft LOT 6256 PRICE $7,700,000 $PSF $1,521 DOM 154 DOM START $ $7,999,999 START 04/27/22
Address 901 28th Street BD/BA 6br/8ba SQFT 5648 sqft LOT 6006 PRICE $6,249,000 $PSF $1,106 DOM 174 DOM START $ $6,249,000 START 04/07/22
Address 845 11th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4315 sqft LOT 9938 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $1,390 DOM 191 DOM START $ $7,000,000 START 03/17/22
Address 235 N Dianthus Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 5152 sqft LOT 6501 PRICE $6,499,000 $PSF $1,261 DOM 223 DOM START $ $8,000,000 START 02/17/22
Address 3216 The Strand BD/BA 5br/8ba SQFT 7454 sqft LOT 3494 PRICE $30,000,000 $PSF $4,025 DOM 251 DOM START $ $30,000,000 START 01/20/22

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