Inventory Is 'Top-Heavy,' But 2020 Has More Higher-End Sales

By Dave Fratello | July 22nd, 2020

There's no doubt that the Manhattan Beach real estate market is busy now.

We were struck, though, to see that the vast majority of inventory for sale is priced well above the current median price.

Specifically, 73% of homes active on the market as of July 21 were priced at $2.500M or above. (Out of 131 active listings.)

This includes quite nearly half the inventory being priced over $3.500M.

The median price for sold homes in Manhattan Beach as of June 30 was $2.475M. (That's for 12 months leading to June 30.)

An observation like this raises the obvious question of whether there's "too much" higher-end inventory. Or, perhaps (?) the median price is poised for an incredible breakout when a bunch of those higher-priced homes all sell.

Historically, higher-priced homes simply won't sell at the same pace and the median will likely end up fairly steady.

You can see that in today's pending sales totals. (There are 77 pending sales.)

Take a moment to compare the colored slices in the pie charts. While 49% of active inventory is in green ($3.5M+), only 25% of pending sales are.

Meantime, the balance (basically 3/4ths) of the homes in escrow are below $3.5M.

But don't give up yet on the idea of the median price jumping.

Only 37% of homes in escrow are $2.5M or below. That number "should" be closer to 50%. Otherwise, $2.475M isn't going to stay the median. Not for long.

The single biggest slice of the pending pie (mmmm, pending pie...) is the 36% priced between $2.5M-$3.5M. Simply put, that price range is where the action is.

So we've looked at where we are, where we're going... Where have we been?

In 2020 to date, closed sales look more like a market with the median price near $2.500M.

Check out those slices again. See how perfectly the bottom half of the chart - sold homes of $2.499M or below - hits exactly 50%.

That's how you know the median is $2.500M.

(Nerdy note: We calculate the median based on a full 12 months, in this case leading up to June 30, 2020. This chart shows only homes sold Jan. 1-July 21, 2020. Still, they match!)

Head back up to the top again. Basically half of today's inventory is priced over $3.500M, but you see that among sales to date, only 28% were sold for more than $3.500M.

Still, there is one bit of news in this data regarding higher-priced home sales.

In prior posts here at MBC, we've analyzed this phenomenon of the disconnect between high-priced inventory and actual sales. (For instance, this May 2019 post.)

We had shown that the percentage of home sales over $3.5M has been growing steadily in recent years, as prices rose.

The years 2017-2019 were pretty consistent, with 20-21% of sales at this higher price point.

Year to date, however, here in the COVID-19 market, Manhattan Beach has a steeper share of sales at the higher end, 28% among closings Jan. 1-July 21. Wow.

Remember, we have 25% of pending sales in that $3.5M+ price range. That's somewhat consistent, and also above the ~20% average of closings over $3.5M in the past few years.

Neither figure is near 50%, the share of inventory over $3.5M, but maybe something's up this year... the appetite for higher-end Manhattan Beach homes.

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Below, enjoy a look at the latest $3.5M+ listings in Manhattan Beach. (At the time this post went live, there were 64 active; we can only display 48 within this blog post. Email subscribers will need to view this post online to see the listings.)

Newest Manhattan Beach Home Listings Priced $3.5M+

Montecito Magic: Charming Tree Lined Block In T...

OPEN HOUSE
Photo of Listing #SB21226238

561 33rd Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 5 BR
  • 6 BA
  • 3,782 SqFt.
  • 5,396 Lot

$4,150,000

Active

DOM: 7

Price:
$4,150,000
BR/BA:
5br / 6ba
Sq. ft.:
3,782
Area:
143 - Manhattan Bch Tree
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
7

Welcome To 420 5th Street, From The Exterior To...

OPEN HOUSE
Photo of Listing #SB21182348

420 5th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 5 BR
  • 7 BA
  • 4,282 SqFt.
  • 2,699 Lot

$6,845,000

Active

DOM: 29

Price:
$6,845,000
BR/BA:
5br / 7ba
Sq. ft.:
4,282
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
29

This Brand New Ocean-view 4-level Custom Single...

OPEN HOUSE
Photo of Listing #SB21110612

2509 Alma Avenue

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 3 BR
  • 5 BA
  • 2,427 SqFt.
  • 1,356 Lot

$4,295,000

Active

DOM: 92

Price:
$4,295,000
BR/BA:
3br / 5ba
Sq. ft.:
2,427
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
92

A Modern Approach To Beach Living. Truly A One...

RECENT PRICE CUT
Photo of Listing #SB21105910

224 29th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 5 BR
  • 6 BA
  • 5,219 SqFt.
  • 3,155 Lot

$8,999,000

Active

DOM: 156

Price:
$8,999,000
BR/BA:
5br / 6ba
Sq. ft.:
5,219
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
156
ADDRESS BD/BA SQFT LOT PRICE $PSF DOM START $ START
Address 407 Larsson Street BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 4839 sqft LOT 6876 PRICE $4,800,000 $PSF $992 DOM 5 DOM START $ $4,800,000 START 10/16/21
Address 561 33rd Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 3782 sqft LOT 5396 PRICE $4,150,000 $PSF $1,097 DOM 7 DOM START $ $4,150,000 START 10/14/21
Address 300 N Dianthus Street BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 5500 sqft LOT 7565 PRICE $6,999,000 $PSF $1,273 DOM 15 DOM START $ $6,999,000 START 10/06/21
Address 219 Anderson Street BD/BA 6br/7ba SQFT 6483 sqft LOT 8141 PRICE $10,000,000 $PSF $1,542 DOM 21 DOM START $ $10,000,000 START 09/30/21
Address 2804 The Strand BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 3469 sqft LOT 3481 PRICE $16,499,000 $PSF $4,756 DOM 22 DOM START $ $16,499,000 START 09/29/21
Address 320 20th Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 5100 sqft LOT 2700 PRICE $5,795,000 $PSF $1,136 DOM 27 DOM START $ $5,795,000 START 09/24/21
Address 2615 Palm Avenue BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 3188 sqft LOT 4643 PRICE $3,795,000 $PSF $1,190 DOM 27 DOM START $ $3,995,000 START 09/23/21
Address 420 5th Street BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 4282 sqft LOT 2699 PRICE $6,845,000 $PSF $1,599 DOM 29 DOM START $ $6,845,000 START 09/22/21
Address 2522 The Strand BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 2740 sqft LOT 3498 PRICE $8,500,000 $PSF $3,102 DOM 71 DOM START $ $8,500,000 START 08/11/21
Address 4114 The Strand BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 2250 sqft LOT 3507 PRICE $4,395,000 $PSF $1,953 DOM 71 DOM START $ $4,395,000 START 08/11/21
Address 117 Crest Drive BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 2520 sqft LOT 1666 PRICE $4,399,000 $PSF $1,746 DOM 72 DOM START $ $4,495,000 START 06/17/21
Address 1430 2nd Street BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2283 sqft LOT 13634 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $2,058 DOM 83 DOM START $ $4,850,000 START 07/08/21
Address 808 The Strand BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 2911 sqft LOT 5070 PRICE $11,695,000 $PSF $4,018 DOM 84 DOM START $ $11,695,000 START 07/30/21
Address 2509 Alma Avenue BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 2427 sqft LOT 1356 PRICE $4,295,000 $PSF $1,770 DOM 92 DOM START $ $5,195,000 START 06/18/21
Address 235 No. Dianthus Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 5700 sqft LOT 6500 PRICE $7,900,000 $PSF $1,386 DOM 104 DOM START $ $9,300,000 START 06/18/21
Address 1145 Fisher Avenue BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4716 sqft LOT 3000 PRICE $5,795,000 $PSF $1,229 DOM 113 DOM START $ $5,999,000 START 06/30/21
Address 417 2nd Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4331 sqft LOT 2691 PRICE $5,650,000 $PSF $1,305 DOM 119 DOM START $ $6,250,000 START 06/24/21
Address 868 9th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5526 sqft LOT 5795 PRICE $8,999,000 $PSF $1,628 DOM 125 DOM START $ $9,868,000 START 06/18/21
Address 2415 Manhattan Avenue BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 4275 sqft LOT 2705 PRICE $12,000,000 $PSF $2,807 DOM 134 DOM START $ $12,000,000 START 04/07/21
Address 440 31st Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3600 sqft LOT 2694 PRICE $3,850,000 $PSF $1,069 DOM 140 DOM START $ $4,100,000 START 06/03/21
Address 224 29th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5219 sqft LOT 3155 PRICE $8,999,000 $PSF $1,724 DOM 156 DOM START $ $9,500,000 START 05/18/21
Address 404 17th Street BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 3149 sqft LOT 2636 PRICE $4,399,000 $PSF $1,397 DOM 163 DOM START $ $4,600,000 START 05/11/21
Address 424 20th Street BD/BA 8br/10ba SQFT 6073 sqft LOT 5148 PRICE $6,995,000 $PSF $1,152 DOM 169 DOM START $ $6,995,000 START 05/05/21
Address 509 Marine Avenue BD/BA 6br/5ba SQFT 4179 sqft LOT 3709 PRICE $4,399,000 $PSF $1,053 DOM 184 DOM START $ $4,399,000 START 04/20/21
Address 201 15th Street BD/BA 6br/3ba SQFT 2093 sqft LOT 2701 PRICE $3,599,000 $PSF $1,720 DOM 517 DOM START $ $4,550,000 START 04/22/20
Address 200 15th Street BD/BA 7br/6ba SQFT 3084 sqft LOT 2844 PRICE $4,199,000 $PSF $1,362 DOM 517 DOM START $ $4,950,000 START 04/22/20

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