Inventory Is 'Top-Heavy,' But 2020 Has More Higher-End Sales

By Dave Fratello | July 22nd, 2020

There's no doubt that the Manhattan Beach real estate market is busy now.

We were struck, though, to see that the vast majority of inventory for sale is priced well above the current median price.

Specifically, 73% of homes active on the market as of July 21 were priced at $2.500M or above. (Out of 131 active listings.)

This includes quite nearly half the inventory being priced over $3.500M.

The median price for sold homes in Manhattan Beach as of June 30 was $2.475M. (That's for 12 months leading to June 30.)

An observation like this raises the obvious question of whether there's "too much" higher-end inventory. Or, perhaps (?) the median price is poised for an incredible breakout when a bunch of those higher-priced homes all sell.

Historically, higher-priced homes simply won't sell at the same pace and the median will likely end up fairly steady.

You can see that in today's pending sales totals. (There are 77 pending sales.)

Take a moment to compare the colored slices in the pie charts. While 49% of active inventory is in green ($3.5M+), only 25% of pending sales are.

Meantime, the balance (basically 3/4ths) of the homes in escrow are below $3.5M.

But don't give up yet on the idea of the median price jumping.

Only 37% of homes in escrow are $2.5M or below. That number "should" be closer to 50%. Otherwise, $2.475M isn't going to stay the median. Not for long.

The single biggest slice of the pending pie (mmmm, pending pie...) is the 36% priced between $2.5M-$3.5M. Simply put, that price range is where the action is.

So we've looked at where we are, where we're going... Where have we been?

In 2020 to date, closed sales look more like a market with the median price near $2.500M.

Check out those slices again. See how perfectly the bottom half of the chart - sold homes of $2.499M or below - hits exactly 50%.

That's how you know the median is $2.500M.

(Nerdy note: We calculate the median based on a full 12 months, in this case leading up to June 30, 2020. This chart shows only homes sold Jan. 1-July 21, 2020. Still, they match!)

Head back up to the top again. Basically half of today's inventory is priced over $3.500M, but you see that among sales to date, only 28% were sold for more than $3.500M.

Still, there is one bit of news in this data regarding higher-priced home sales.

In prior posts here at MBC, we've analyzed this phenomenon of the disconnect between high-priced inventory and actual sales. (For instance, this May 2019 post.)

We had shown that the percentage of home sales over $3.5M has been growing steadily in recent years, as prices rose.

The years 2017-2019 were pretty consistent, with 20-21% of sales at this higher price point.

Year to date, however, here in the COVID-19 market, Manhattan Beach has a steeper share of sales at the higher end, 28% among closings Jan. 1-July 21. Wow.

Remember, we have 25% of pending sales in that $3.5M+ price range. That's somewhat consistent, and also above the ~20% average of closings over $3.5M in the past few years.

Neither figure is near 50%, the share of inventory over $3.5M, but maybe something's up this year... the appetite for higher-end Manhattan Beach homes.

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Below, enjoy a look at the latest $3.5M+ listings in Manhattan Beach. (At the time this post went live, there were 64 active; we can only display 48 within this blog post. Email subscribers will need to view this post online to see the listings.)

Newest Manhattan Beach Home Listings Priced $3.5M+

This Brand New 4-level Custom Single Family Hom...

RECENT PRICE CUT
Photo of Listing #SB21110612

2509 Alma Avenue

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 3 BR
  • 5 BA
  • 2,427 SqFt.
  • 1,356 Lot

$4,799,000

Active

DOM: 11

Price:
$4,799,000
BR/BA:
3br / 5ba
Sq. ft.:
2,427
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
11

Huge Ocean Views On This Beautifully Designed H...

OPEN HOUSE
Photo of Listing #SB21138649

428 36th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 4 BR
  • 5 BA
  • 4,064 SqFt.
  • 2,702 Lot

$4,750,000

Active

DOM: 37

Price:
$4,750,000
BR/BA:
4br / 5ba
Sq. ft.:
4,064
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
37

South Beach Meets The South Bay! Designed And B...

OPEN HOUSE
Photo of Listing #SB21132177

1226 3rd Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 6 BR
  • 5 BA
  • 4,000 SqFt.
  • 6,269 Lot

$3,999,999

Active

DOM: 38

Price:
$3,999,999
BR/BA:
6br / 5ba
Sq. ft.:
4,000
Area:
147 - Manhattan Bch Mira Costa
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
38

Welcome To "the Endless Summer"! This Outstand...

RECENT PRICE CUT
Photo of Listing #SB21124821

228 20th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 5 BR
  • 5 BA
  • 4,144 SqFt.
  • 2,700 Lot

$5,845,000

Active

DOM: 44

Price:
$5,845,000
BR/BA:
5br / 5ba
Sq. ft.:
4,144
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
44

Brought To Life By Nick Olsen, A New York Desig...

OPEN HOUSE
Photo of Listing #SB21101147

421 1st Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 4 BR
  • 5 BA
  • 4,081 SqFt.
  • 2,710 Lot

$3,999,999

Active

DOM: 81

Price:
$3,999,999
BR/BA:
4br / 5ba
Sq. ft.:
4,081
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
81

*** New Construction*** This 5 Bedroom, 6.5 Bat...

OPEN HOUSE
Photo of Listing #SB20102255

592 30th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 5 BR
  • 7 BA
  • 4,648 SqFt.
  • 4,804 Lot

$4,699,000

Active

DOM: 395

Price:
$4,699,000
BR/BA:
5br / 7ba
Sq. ft.:
4,648
Area:
143 - Manhattan Bch Tree
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
395
ADDRESS BD/BA SQFT LOT PRICE $PSF DOM START $ START
Address 808 The Strand BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 2911 sqft LOT 5070 PRICE $11,695,000 $PSF $4,018 DOM 2 DOM START $ $11,695,000 START 07/30/21
Address 2215 Bayview Drive BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2630 sqft LOT 3505 PRICE $4,600,000 $PSF $1,749 DOM 3 DOM START $ $4,600,000 START 07/29/21
Address 605 29th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5002 sqft LOT 4801 PRICE $5,499,999 $PSF $1,100 DOM 4 DOM START $ $5,499,999 START 07/28/21
Address 225 27th Street BD/BA 4br/2ba SQFT 2270 sqft LOT 2491 PRICE $4,999,000 $PSF $2,202 DOM 9 DOM START $ $4,999,000 START 07/23/21
Address 1659 6th Street BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 5255 sqft LOT 7457 PRICE $3,699,000 $PSF $704 DOM 9 DOM START $ $3,699,000 START 07/23/21
Address 1209 Elm Avenue BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3248 sqft LOT 4485 PRICE $3,750,000 $PSF $1,155 DOM 9 DOM START $ $3,750,000 START 07/22/21
Address 2304 Grandview Avenue BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 4092 sqft LOT 4480 PRICE $4,199,000 $PSF $1,026 DOM 10 DOM START $ $4,199,000 START 07/22/21
Address 2707 N Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4400 sqft LOT 4460 PRICE $4,895,000 $PSF $1,113 DOM 10 DOM START $ $4,895,000 START 07/22/21
Address 2509 Alma Avenue BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 2427 sqft LOT 1356 PRICE $4,799,000 $PSF $1,977 DOM 11 DOM START $ $5,195,000 START 06/18/21
Address 124 11th Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 3966 sqft LOT 2711 PRICE $8,750,000 $PSF $2,206 DOM 17 DOM START $ $9,450,000 START 07/15/21
Address 1430 2nd Street BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2283 sqft LOT 13634 PRICE $4,850,000 $PSF $2,124 DOM 24 DOM START $ $4,850,000 START 07/08/21
Address 1145 Fisher Avenue BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 4716 sqft LOT 3000 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $1,272 DOM 32 DOM START $ $5,999,000 START 06/30/21
Address 511 Pacific Avenue BD/BA 5br/9ba SQFT 7961 sqft LOT 9355 PRICE $7,950,000 $PSF $999 DOM 34 DOM START $ $7,950,000 START 06/29/21
Address 428 36th Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4064 sqft LOT 2702 PRICE $4,750,000 $PSF $1,169 DOM 37 DOM START $ $4,750,000 START 06/25/21
Address 417 2nd Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4331 sqft LOT 2691 PRICE $5,950,000 $PSF $1,374 DOM 38 DOM START $ $6,250,000 START 06/24/21
Address 1226 3rd Street BD/BA 6br/5ba SQFT 4000 sqft LOT 6269 PRICE $3,999,999 $PSF $1,000 DOM 38 DOM START $ $4,199,999 START 06/24/21
Address 2508 The Strand BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 4554 sqft LOT 3502 PRICE $12,999,000 $PSF $2,854 DOM 39 DOM START $ $12,999,000 START 06/16/21
Address 235 No. Dianthus Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 5700 sqft LOT 6500 PRICE $8,900,000 $PSF $1,561 DOM 44 DOM START $ $9,300,000 START 06/18/21
Address 868 9th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5526 sqft LOT 5795 PRICE $9,868,000 $PSF $1,786 DOM 44 DOM START $ $9,868,000 START 06/18/21
Address 228 20th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4144 sqft LOT 2700 PRICE $5,845,000 $PSF $1,410 DOM 44 DOM START $ $5,995,000 START 06/15/21
Address 2415 Manhattan Avenue BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 4275 sqft LOT 2705 PRICE $12,000,000 $PSF $2,807 DOM 53 DOM START $ $12,000,000 START 04/07/21
Address 504 John Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4783 sqft LOT 7003 PRICE $9,499,000 $PSF $1,986 DOM 58 DOM START $ $9,499,000 START 06/04/21
Address 440 31st Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3600 sqft LOT 2694 PRICE $3,999,000 $PSF $1,111 DOM 59 DOM START $ $4,100,000 START 06/03/21
Address 853 10th Street BD/BA 7br/10ba SQFT 7606 sqft LOT 11999 PRICE $8,199,999 $PSF $1,078 DOM 72 DOM START $ $8,688,000 START 05/21/21
Address 1516 The Strand BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 4953 sqft LOT 3330 PRICE $17,900,000 $PSF $3,614 DOM 75 DOM START $ $17,900,000 START 05/18/21
Address 224 29th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5219 sqft LOT 3155 PRICE $9,500,000 $PSF $1,820 DOM 75 DOM START $ $9,500,000 START 05/18/21
Address 421 1st Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4081 sqft LOT 2710 PRICE $3,999,999 $PSF $980 DOM 81 DOM START $ $3,999,999 START 05/12/21
Address 404 17th Street BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 3149 sqft LOT 2636 PRICE $4,399,000 $PSF $1,397 DOM 82 DOM START $ $4,600,000 START 05/11/21
Address 424 20th Street BD/BA 8br/10ba SQFT 6073 sqft LOT 5148 PRICE $6,995,000 $PSF $1,152 DOM 88 DOM START $ $6,995,000 START 05/05/21
Address 4112 The Strand BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2550 sqft LOT 3507 PRICE $7,490,000 $PSF $2,937 DOM 90 DOM START $ $7,490,000 START 05/03/21
Address 509 Marine Avenue BD/BA 6br/5ba SQFT 4179 sqft LOT 3709 PRICE $4,399,000 $PSF $1,053 DOM 103 DOM START $ $4,399,000 START 04/20/21
Address 508 The Strand BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4325 sqft LOT 3337 PRICE $19,900,000 $PSF $4,601 DOM 136 DOM START $ $19,900,000 START 03/18/21
Address 224 32nd Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4268 sqft LOT 2698 PRICE $7,000,000 $PSF $1,640 DOM 311 DOM START $ $7,499,000 START 07/17/20
Address 4117 The Strand (aka Ocean Dr) Drive BD/BA 5br/3ba SQFT 2804 sqft LOT 3500 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $2,139 DOM 317 DOM START $ $5,999,000 START 09/18/20
Address 724 13th Street BD/BA 6br/7ba SQFT 4844 sqft LOT 2999 PRICE $4,995,000 $PSF $1,031 DOM 350 DOM START $ $5,495,000 START 08/21/19
Address 592 30th Street BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 4648 sqft LOT 4804 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $1,011 DOM 395 DOM START $ $4,699,000 START 06/05/20
Address 201 15th Street BD/BA 6br/3ba SQFT 2093 sqft LOT 2701 PRICE $3,899,000 $PSF $1,863 DOM 436 DOM START $ $4,550,000 START 04/22/20
Address 200 15th Street BD/BA 7br/6ba SQFT 3084 sqft LOT 2844 PRICE $4,399,000 $PSF $1,426 DOM 436 DOM START $ $4,950,000 START 04/22/20

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