Inventory Is 'Top-Heavy,' But 2020 Has More Higher-End Sales

By Dave Fratello | July 22nd, 2020

There's no doubt that the Manhattan Beach real estate market is busy now.

We were struck, though, to see that the vast majority of inventory for sale is priced well above the current median price.

Specifically, 73% of homes active on the market as of July 21 were priced at $2.500M or above. (Out of 131 active listings.)

This includes quite nearly half the inventory being priced over $3.500M.

The median price for sold homes in Manhattan Beach as of June 30 was $2.475M. (That's for 12 months leading to June 30.)

An observation like this raises the obvious question of whether there's "too much" higher-end inventory. Or, perhaps (?) the median price is poised for an incredible breakout when a bunch of those higher-priced homes all sell.

Historically, higher-priced homes simply won't sell at the same pace and the median will likely end up fairly steady.

You can see that in today's pending sales totals. (There are 77 pending sales.)

Take a moment to compare the colored slices in the pie charts. While 49% of active inventory is in green ($3.5M+), only 25% of pending sales are.

Meantime, the balance (basically 3/4ths) of the homes in escrow are below $3.5M.

But don't give up yet on the idea of the median price jumping.

Only 37% of homes in escrow are $2.5M or below. That number "should" be closer to 50%. Otherwise, $2.475M isn't going to stay the median. Not for long.

The single biggest slice of the pending pie (mmmm, pending pie...) is the 36% priced between $2.5M-$3.5M. Simply put, that price range is where the action is.

So we've looked at where we are, where we're going... Where have we been?

In 2020 to date, closed sales look more like a market with the median price near $2.500M.

Check out those slices again. See how perfectly the bottom half of the chart - sold homes of $2.499M or below - hits exactly 50%.

That's how you know the median is $2.500M.

(Nerdy note: We calculate the median based on a full 12 months, in this case leading up to June 30, 2020. This chart shows only homes sold Jan. 1-July 21, 2020. Still, they match!)

Head back up to the top again. Basically half of today's inventory is priced over $3.500M, but you see that among sales to date, only 28% were sold for more than $3.500M.

Still, there is one bit of news in this data regarding higher-priced home sales.

In prior posts here at MBC, we've analyzed this phenomenon of the disconnect between high-priced inventory and actual sales. (For instance, this May 2019 post.)

We had shown that the percentage of home sales over $3.5M has been growing steadily in recent years, as prices rose.

The years 2017-2019 were pretty consistent, with 20-21% of sales at this higher price point.

Year to date, however, here in the COVID-19 market, Manhattan Beach has a steeper share of sales at the higher end, 28% among closings Jan. 1-July 21. Wow.

Remember, we have 25% of pending sales in that $3.5M+ price range. That's somewhat consistent, and also above the ~20% average of closings over $3.5M in the past few years.

Neither figure is near 50%, the share of inventory over $3.5M, but maybe something's up this year... the appetite for higher-end Manhattan Beach homes.

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Below, enjoy a look at the latest $3.5M+ listings in Manhattan Beach. (At the time this post went live, there were 64 active; we can only display 48 within this blog post. Email subscribers will need to view this post online to see the listings.)

Newest Manhattan Beach Home Listings Priced $3.5M+

ADDRESS BD/BA SQFT LOT PRICE $PSF DOM START $ START
Address 1208 The Strand B BD/BA 2br/2ba SQFT 1190 sqft LOT 3317 PRICE $4,999,000 $PSF $4,201 DOM 0 DOM START $ $4,999,000 START 08/12/20
Address 408 32nd Street BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2932 sqft LOT 3496 PRICE $3,650,000 $PSF $1,245 DOM 0 DOM START $ $3,650,000 START 08/13/20
Address 118 S Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 3712 sqft LOT 6245 PRICE $4,499,000 $PSF $1,212 DOM 1 DOM START $ $4,499,000 START 08/12/20
Address 4114 The Strand BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 2250 sqft LOT 3507 PRICE $5,975,000 $PSF $2,656 DOM 2 DOM START $ $5,975,000 START 08/11/20
Address 1837 9th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4900 sqft LOT 7501 PRICE $4,149,000 $PSF $847 DOM 5 DOM START $ $4,149,000 START 08/07/20
Address 1804 Palm Avenue BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3150 sqft LOT 4480 PRICE $3,695,000 $PSF $1,173 DOM 5 DOM START $ $3,695,000 START 08/07/20
Address 641 26th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3500 sqft LOT 5119 PRICE $3,699,000 $PSF $1,057 DOM 6 DOM START $ $3,699,000 START 08/06/20
Address 633 11th Street BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 5200 sqft LOT 5664 PRICE $6,950,000 $PSF $1,337 DOM 10 DOM START $ $7,450,000 START 08/01/20
Address 1246 10th Street BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 7000 sqft LOT 7503 PRICE $4,895,000 $PSF $699 DOM 14 DOM START $ $4,895,000 START 07/29/20
Address 3400 Palm Avenue BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3436 sqft LOT 6199 PRICE $3,750,000 $PSF $1,091 DOM 15 DOM START $ $3,750,000 START 07/28/20
Address 3412 Palm Avenue BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 5650 sqft LOT 6154 PRICE $5,995,000 $PSF $1,061 DOM 18 DOM START $ $5,995,000 START 07/25/20
Address 2612 Highland Avenue BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 2745 sqft LOT 0 PRICE $5,699,000 $PSF $2,076 DOM 19 DOM START $ $5,699,000 START 07/24/20
Address 2613 Crest Drive BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 2846 sqft LOT 0 PRICE $6,299,000 $PSF $2,213 DOM 19 DOM START $ $6,299,000 START 07/24/20
Address 412 8th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4424 sqft LOT 2707 PRICE $6,349,000 $PSF $1,435 DOM 20 DOM START $ $6,349,000 START 07/23/20
Address 1516 The Strand BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 4953 sqft LOT 3330 PRICE $18,900,000 $PSF $3,816 DOM 23 DOM START $ $18,900,000 START 07/20/20
Address 1545 Voorhees Avenue BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4800 sqft LOT 7505 PRICE $4,295,000 $PSF $895 DOM 24 DOM START $ $4,295,000 START 07/19/20
Address 232 16th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4978 sqft LOT 2694 PRICE $6,495,000 $PSF $1,305 DOM 24 DOM START $ $6,495,000 START 07/09/20
Address 224 32nd Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4367 sqft LOT 2698 PRICE $7,499,000 $PSF $1,717 DOM 26 DOM START $ $7,499,000 START 07/17/20
Address 333 19th Street BD/BA 5br/3ba SQFT 2148 sqft LOT 2699 PRICE $4,200,000 $PSF $1,955 DOM 28 DOM START $ $4,200,000 START 07/15/20
Address 2612 Highland Avenue BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 2745 sqft LOT 0 PRICE $5,699,000 $PSF $2,076 DOM 32 DOM START $ $5,699,000 START 07/11/20
Address 510 N Dianthus Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3805 sqft LOT 5503 PRICE $4,600,000 $PSF $1,209 DOM 33 DOM START $ $4,600,000 START 07/10/20
Address 421 1st Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 3620 sqft LOT 2710 PRICE $4,800,000 $PSF $1,326 DOM 34 DOM START $ $4,800,000 START 07/09/20
Address 848 11th Street BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 4613 sqft LOT 6002 PRICE $4,590,000 $PSF $995 DOM 35 DOM START $ $4,590,000 START 07/08/20
Address 660 33rd Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4761 sqft LOT 5024 PRICE $4,170,000 $PSF $876 DOM 35 DOM START $ $4,170,000 START 07/08/20
Address 717 31st Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3513 sqft LOT 5016 PRICE $3,995,000 $PSF $1,137 DOM 35 DOM START $ $4,225,000 START 07/08/20
Address 1540 Curtis Avenue BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4400 sqft LOT 7499 PRICE $3,599,000 $PSF $818 DOM 36 DOM START $ $3,599,000 START 07/07/20
Address 2215 Bayview Drive BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2630 sqft LOT 3505 PRICE $4,499,000 $PSF $1,711 DOM 37 DOM START $ $4,499,000 START 07/06/20
Address 121 21st Street BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 3264 sqft LOT 2696 PRICE $5,750,000 $PSF $1,762 DOM 37 DOM START $ $5,750,000 START 07/06/20
Address 325 9th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4093 sqft LOT 2686 PRICE $5,899,000 $PSF $1,441 DOM 40 DOM START $ $5,899,000 START 07/03/20
Address 501 8th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4175 sqft LOT 2711 PRICE $5,695,000 $PSF $1,364 DOM 41 DOM START $ $5,895,000 START 07/02/20
Address 712 Highland Avenue BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 2101 sqft LOT 3326 PRICE $3,795,000 $PSF $1,806 DOM 43 DOM START $ $3,795,000 START 06/30/20
Address 844 10th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4556 sqft LOT 6002 PRICE $4,695,000 $PSF $1,031 DOM 45 DOM START $ $4,895,000 START 06/21/20
Address 429 31st Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4246 sqft LOT 2705 PRICE $3,799,000 $PSF $895 DOM 49 DOM START $ $3,799,000 START 06/24/20
Address 511 Pacific Avenue BD/BA 5br/9ba SQFT 7961 sqft LOT 9355 PRICE $7,950,000 $PSF $999 DOM 50 DOM START $ $7,950,000 START 06/23/20
Address 2600 Vista Drive BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3775 sqft LOT 2702 PRICE $4,100,000 $PSF $1,086 DOM 54 DOM START $ $4,349,000 START 06/19/20
Address 229 8th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4145 sqft LOT 2703 PRICE $8,495,000 $PSF $2,049 DOM 55 DOM START $ $8,799,000 START 06/18/20
Address 429 5th Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3255 sqft LOT 2703 PRICE $4,595,000 $PSF $1,412 DOM 57 DOM START $ $4,895,000 START 06/16/20
Address 405 20th Street BD/BA 3br/2ba SQFT 1464 sqft LOT 2697 PRICE $3,795,000 $PSF $2,592 DOM 57 DOM START $ $3,795,000 START 06/16/20
Address 304 26th Street BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 3419 sqft LOT 3519 PRICE $3,998,887 $PSF $1,170 DOM 62 DOM START $ $3,998,888 START 06/11/20
Address 592 30th Street BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 4648 sqft LOT 4804 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $1,011 DOM 68 DOM START $ $4,699,000 START 06/05/20
Address 1920 The Strand BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 5574 sqft LOT 3340 PRICE $16,900,000 $PSF $3,032 DOM 82 DOM START $ $16,900,000 START 05/22/20
Address 1215 Fisher Avenue BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5400 sqft LOT 3000 PRICE $6,955,000 $PSF $1,288 DOM 83 DOM START $ $6,995,000 START 05/21/20
Address 125 8th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4083 sqft LOT 2681 PRICE $8,495,000 $PSF $2,081 DOM 85 DOM START $ $8,495,000 START 05/19/20
Address 404 16th Street BD/BA 3br/2ba SQFT 1440 sqft LOT 2710 PRICE $3,500,000 $PSF $2,431 DOM 86 DOM START $ $3,500,000 START 05/18/20
Address 577 31st Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4369 sqft LOT 5025 PRICE $4,479,000 $PSF $1,025 DOM 89 DOM START $ $4,479,000 START 05/15/20
Address 117 17th Street BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 3813 sqft LOT 2694 PRICE $8,399,000 $PSF $2,203 DOM 89 DOM START $ $8,399,000 START 05/15/20
Address 528 15th Street BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 6483 sqft LOT 6241 PRICE $9,999,999 $PSF $1,542 DOM 98 DOM START $ $11,750,000 START 05/06/20
Address 617 31st Street BD/BA 7br/8ba SQFT 5084 sqft LOT 5019 PRICE $5,495,000 $PSF $1,081 DOM 98 DOM START $ $5,495,000 START 05/06/20

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