Inventory Is 'Top-Heavy,' But 2020 Has More Higher-End Sales

By Dave Fratello | July 22nd, 2020

There's no doubt that the Manhattan Beach real estate market is busy now.

We were struck, though, to see that the vast majority of inventory for sale is priced well above the current median price.

Specifically, 73% of homes active on the market as of July 21 were priced at $2.500M or above. (Out of 131 active listings.)

This includes quite nearly half the inventory being priced over $3.500M.

The median price for sold homes in Manhattan Beach as of June 30 was $2.475M. (That's for 12 months leading to June 30.)

An observation like this raises the obvious question of whether there's "too much" higher-end inventory. Or, perhaps (?) the median price is poised for an incredible breakout when a bunch of those higher-priced homes all sell.

Historically, higher-priced homes simply won't sell at the same pace and the median will likely end up fairly steady.

You can see that in today's pending sales totals. (There are 77 pending sales.)

Take a moment to compare the colored slices in the pie charts. While 49% of active inventory is in green ($3.5M+), only 25% of pending sales are.

Meantime, the balance (basically 3/4ths) of the homes in escrow are below $3.5M.

But don't give up yet on the idea of the median price jumping.

Only 37% of homes in escrow are $2.5M or below. That number "should" be closer to 50%. Otherwise, $2.475M isn't going to stay the median. Not for long.

The single biggest slice of the pending pie (mmmm, pending pie...) is the 36% priced between $2.5M-$3.5M. Simply put, that price range is where the action is.

So we've looked at where we are, where we're going... Where have we been?

In 2020 to date, closed sales look more like a market with the median price near $2.500M.

Check out those slices again. See how perfectly the bottom half of the chart - sold homes of $2.499M or below - hits exactly 50%.

That's how you know the median is $2.500M.

(Nerdy note: We calculate the median based on a full 12 months, in this case leading up to June 30, 2020. This chart shows only homes sold Jan. 1-July 21, 2020. Still, they match!)

Head back up to the top again. Basically half of today's inventory is priced over $3.500M, but you see that among sales to date, only 28% were sold for more than $3.500M.

Still, there is one bit of news in this data regarding higher-priced home sales.

In prior posts here at MBC, we've analyzed this phenomenon of the disconnect between high-priced inventory and actual sales. (For instance, this May 2019 post.)

We had shown that the percentage of home sales over $3.5M has been growing steadily in recent years, as prices rose.

The years 2017-2019 were pretty consistent, with 20-21% of sales at this higher price point.

Year to date, however, here in the COVID-19 market, Manhattan Beach has a steeper share of sales at the higher end, 28% among closings Jan. 1-July 21. Wow.

Remember, we have 25% of pending sales in that $3.5M+ price range. That's somewhat consistent, and also above the ~20% average of closings over $3.5M in the past few years.

Neither figure is near 50%, the share of inventory over $3.5M, but maybe something's up this year... the appetite for higher-end Manhattan Beach homes.

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Below, enjoy a look at the latest $3.5M+ listings in Manhattan Beach. (At the time this post went live, there were 64 active; we can only display 48 within this blog post. Email subscribers will need to view this post online to see the listings.)

Newest Manhattan Beach Home Listings Priced $3.5M+

Stunningly Beautiful 3 Story Modern Townhome Wi...

OPEN HOUSE
Photo of Listing #SB22099155

2400 Alma Avenue

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 4 BR
  • 4 BA
  • 2,818 SqFt.
  • N/A Lot

$4,850,000

Active

DOM: 5

Price:
$4,850,000
BR/BA:
4br / 4ba
Sq. ft.:
2,818
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
5

Welcome To This Quintessential Manhattan Beach ...

OPEN HOUSE
Photo of Listing #SB22069139

901 28th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 6 BR
  • 8 BA
  • 5,648 SqFt.
  • 6,006 Lot

$6,249,000

Active

DOM: 40

Price:
$6,249,000
BR/BA:
6br / 8ba
Sq. ft.:
5,648
Area:
143 - Manhattan Bch Tree
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
40
ADDRESS BD/BA SQFT LOT PRICE $PSF DOM START $ START
Address 2807 Elm Avenue BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3471 sqft LOT 5601 PRICE $4,195,000 $PSF $1,209 DOM 2 DOM START $ $4,195,000 START 05/16/22
Address 121 15th Street BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 1900 sqft LOT 2699 PRICE $3,995,000 $PSF $2,103 DOM 4 DOM START $ $3,995,000 START 05/13/22
Address 1404 Manhattan Avenue BD/BA 2br/2ba SQFT 869 sqft LOT 2987 PRICE $4,999,000 $PSF $5,753 DOM 4 DOM START $ $4,999,000 START 05/13/22
Address 2400 Alma Avenue BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2818 sqft LOT 3513 PRICE $4,850,000 $PSF $1,721 DOM 5 DOM START $ $4,850,000 START 05/12/22
Address 600 Anderson Street BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2025 sqft LOT 7151 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $2,320 DOM 5 DOM START $ $4,699,000 START 05/12/22
Address 432 5th Street BD/BA 5br/2ba SQFT 1880 sqft LOT 2771 PRICE $3,995,000 $PSF $2,125 DOM 5 DOM START $ $3,995,000 START 05/12/22
Address 817 Pacific Avenue BD/BA 3br/2ba SQFT 1510 sqft LOT 6254 PRICE $6,050,000 $PSF $4,007 DOM 5 DOM START $ $6,050,000 START 05/12/22
Address 4113 Crest Drive BD/BA 2br/3ba SQFT 2295 sqft LOT 1350 PRICE $4,900,000 $PSF $2,135 DOM 6 DOM START $ $4,900,000 START 05/11/22
Address 472 29th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4603 sqft LOT 2998 PRICE $4,900,000 $PSF $1,065 DOM 6 DOM START $ $4,900,000 START 05/11/22
Address 621 36th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4066 sqft LOT 5404 PRICE $5,195,000 $PSF $1,278 DOM 7 DOM START $ $5,195,000 START 05/10/22
Address 763 29th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3886 sqft LOT 4195 PRICE $4,600,000 $PSF $1,184 DOM 8 DOM START $ $4,600,000 START 05/09/22
Address 1900 Laurel Avenue BD/BA 2br/2ba SQFT 1315 sqft LOT 6134 PRICE $3,600,000 $PSF $2,738 DOM 13 DOM START $ $3,600,000 START 05/04/22
Address 1601 Pine Avenue BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 2962 sqft LOT 4201 PRICE $4,250,000 $PSF $1,435 DOM 15 DOM START $ $4,250,000 START 05/02/22
Address 200 S Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 5061 sqft LOT 6256 PRICE $7,999,999 $PSF $1,581 DOM 20 DOM START $ $7,999,999 START 04/27/22
Address 300 The Strand BD/BA 4br/9ba SQFT 4440 sqft LOT 3333 PRICE $21,999,000 $PSF $4,955 DOM 21 DOM START $ $21,999,000 START 04/26/22
Address 3404 The Strand BD/BA 8br/7ba SQFT 5568 sqft LOT 3507 PRICE $14,995,000 $PSF $2,693 DOM 26 DOM START $ $14,995,000 START 04/21/22
Address 1420 Elm Avenue BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3432 sqft LOT 4203 PRICE $3,899,999 $PSF $1,136 DOM 26 DOM START $ $4,000,000 START 04/21/22
Address 3312 Palm BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 3599 sqft LOT 4633 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $1,306 DOM 39 DOM START $ $4,699,000 START 04/08/22
Address 901 28th Street BD/BA 6br/8ba SQFT 5648 sqft LOT 6006 PRICE $6,249,000 $PSF $1,106 DOM 40 DOM START $ $6,249,000 START 04/07/22
Address 2617 Vista Drive BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2630 sqft LOT 3494 PRICE $4,999,999 $PSF $1,901 DOM 43 DOM START $ $5,199,000 START 04/04/22
Address 1400 19th Street BD/BA 6br/7ba SQFT 5255 sqft LOT 6942 PRICE $4,500,000 $PSF $856 DOM 52 DOM START $ $4,500,000 START 03/26/22
Address 2522 The Strand BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2660 sqft LOT 3498 PRICE $8,500,000 $PSF $3,195 DOM 56 DOM START $ $8,500,000 START 03/22/22
Address 1800 The Strand BD/BA 5br/8ba SQFT 5329 sqft LOT 3319 PRICE $27,000,000 $PSF $5,067 DOM 76 DOM START $ $27,000,000 START 03/02/22
Address 1145 Fisher Avenue BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5014 sqft LOT 3000 PRICE $5,495,000 $PSF $1,096 DOM 82 DOM START $ $5,795,000 START 02/24/22
Address 235 N Dianthus Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 5152 sqft LOT 6501 PRICE $7,499,000 $PSF $1,456 DOM 89 DOM START $ $8,000,000 START 02/17/22
Address 1516 The Strand BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 4953 sqft LOT 3330 PRICE $17,500,000 $PSF $3,533 DOM 116 DOM START $ $17,500,000 START 01/21/22
Address 3216 The Strand BD/BA 5br/8ba SQFT 7454 sqft LOT 3494 PRICE $30,000,000 $PSF $4,025 DOM 117 DOM START $ $30,000,000 START 01/20/22
Address 2804 The Strand BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 2932 sqft LOT 3481 PRICE $13,499,000 $PSF $4,604 DOM 230 DOM START $ $16,499,000 START 09/29/21
Address 201 15th Street BD/BA 6br/3ba SQFT 2093 sqft LOT 2701 PRICE $3,799,000 $PSF $1,815 DOM 666 DOM START $ $4,550,000 START 04/22/20

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