Inventory Is 'Top-Heavy,' But 2020 Has More Higher-End Sales

By Dave Fratello | July 22nd, 2020

There's no doubt that the Manhattan Beach real estate market is busy now.

We were struck, though, to see that the vast majority of inventory for sale is priced well above the current median price.

Specifically, 73% of homes active on the market as of July 21 were priced at $2.500M or above. (Out of 131 active listings.)

This includes quite nearly half the inventory being priced over $3.500M.

The median price for sold homes in Manhattan Beach as of June 30 was $2.475M. (That's for 12 months leading to June 30.)

An observation like this raises the obvious question of whether there's "too much" higher-end inventory. Or, perhaps (?) the median price is poised for an incredible breakout when a bunch of those higher-priced homes all sell.

Historically, higher-priced homes simply won't sell at the same pace and the median will likely end up fairly steady.

You can see that in today's pending sales totals. (There are 77 pending sales.)

Take a moment to compare the colored slices in the pie charts. While 49% of active inventory is in green ($3.5M+), only 25% of pending sales are.

Meantime, the balance (basically 3/4ths) of the homes in escrow are below $3.5M.

But don't give up yet on the idea of the median price jumping.

Only 37% of homes in escrow are $2.5M or below. That number "should" be closer to 50%. Otherwise, $2.475M isn't going to stay the median. Not for long.

The single biggest slice of the pending pie (mmmm, pending pie...) is the 36% priced between $2.5M-$3.5M. Simply put, that price range is where the action is.

So we've looked at where we are, where we're going... Where have we been?

In 2020 to date, closed sales look more like a market with the median price near $2.500M.

Check out those slices again. See how perfectly the bottom half of the chart - sold homes of $2.499M or below - hits exactly 50%.

That's how you know the median is $2.500M.

(Nerdy note: We calculate the median based on a full 12 months, in this case leading up to June 30, 2020. This chart shows only homes sold Jan. 1-July 21, 2020. Still, they match!)

Head back up to the top again. Basically half of today's inventory is priced over $3.500M, but you see that among sales to date, only 28% were sold for more than $3.500M.

Still, there is one bit of news in this data regarding higher-priced home sales.

In prior posts here at MBC, we've analyzed this phenomenon of the disconnect between high-priced inventory and actual sales. (For instance, this May 2019 post.)

We had shown that the percentage of home sales over $3.5M has been growing steadily in recent years, as prices rose.

The years 2017-2019 were pretty consistent, with 20-21% of sales at this higher price point.

Year to date, however, here in the COVID-19 market, Manhattan Beach has a steeper share of sales at the higher end, 28% among closings Jan. 1-July 21. Wow.

Remember, we have 25% of pending sales in that $3.5M+ price range. That's somewhat consistent, and also above the ~20% average of closings over $3.5M in the past few years.

Neither figure is near 50%, the share of inventory over $3.5M, but maybe something's up this year... the appetite for higher-end Manhattan Beach homes.

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Below, enjoy a look at the latest $3.5M+ listings in Manhattan Beach. (At the time this post went live, there were 64 active; we can only display 48 within this blog post. Email subscribers will need to view this post online to see the listings.)

Newest Manhattan Beach Home Listings Priced $3.5M+

Rare Opportunity To Get On The Strand In Manhat...

OPEN HOUSE
Photo of Listing #22203253

4406 The Strand

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 3 BR
  • 3 BA
  • 2,138 SqFt.
  • N/A Lot

$4,895,000

Active

DOM: 127

Price:
$4,895,000
BR/BA:
3br / 3ba
Sq. ft.:
2,138
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
127

Charming Beach Cottage In Premier 100 Block Loc...

OPEN HOUSE
Photo of Listing #SB22190554

124 2nd Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 3 BR
  • 2 BA
  • 1,750 SqFt.
  • 2,707 Lot

$6,395,000

Active

DOM: 155

Price:
$6,395,000
BR/BA:
3br / 2ba
Sq. ft.:
1,750
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
155

New Stunning Coastal Modern Beach Townhome With...

OPEN HOUSE
Photo of Listing #SB22163434

2605 Vista Drive

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 4 BR
  • 4 BA
  • 2,678 SqFt.
  • N/A Lot

$4,499,000

Active

DOM: 183

Price:
$4,499,000
BR/BA:
4br / 4ba
Sq. ft.:
2,678
Area:
142 - Manhattan Bch Sand
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
183

Welcome To This Quintessential Manhattan Beach ...

OPEN HOUSE
Photo of Listing #SB22069139

901 28th Street

Manhattan Beach, CA

  • 6 BR
  • 8 BA
  • 5,648 SqFt.
  • 6,006 Lot

$5,999,000

Active

DOM: 301

Price:
$5,999,000
BR/BA:
6br / 8ba
Sq. ft.:
5,648
Area:
143 - Manhattan Bch Tree
City:
Manhattan Beach
DOM:
301
ADDRESS BD/BA SQFT LOT PRICE $PSF DOM START $ START
Address 632 35th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4013 sqft LOT 5404 PRICE $4,650,000 $PSF $1,159 DOM 1 DOM START $ $4,650,000 START 02/02/23
Address 2617 Vista Drive BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2810 sqft LOT 3494 PRICE $4,499,000 $PSF $1,601 DOM 1 DOM START $ $4,499,000 START 02/02/23
Address 3203 Vista Drive BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3178 sqft LOT 1751 PRICE $6,199,000 $PSF $1,951 DOM 7 DOM START $ $6,199,000 START 01/26/23
Address 800 N Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2900 sqft LOT 7201 PRICE $4,999,999 $PSF $1,724 DOM 8 DOM START $ $4,999,999 START 01/25/23
Address 125 9th Street BD/BA 6br/3ba SQFT 2316 sqft LOT 2704 PRICE $5,800,000 $PSF $2,504 DOM 8 DOM START $ $5,800,000 START 01/25/23
Address 628 35th Street BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2881 sqft LOT 5403 PRICE $3,895,000 $PSF $1,352 DOM 11 DOM START $ $3,895,000 START 01/22/23
Address 340 6th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3842 sqft LOT 2694 PRICE $7,450,000 $PSF $1,939 DOM 14 DOM START $ $7,450,000 START 01/19/23
Address 931 1st Street BD/BA 2br/1ba SQFT 948 sqft LOT 9595 PRICE $6,200,000 $PSF $6,540 DOM 14 DOM START $ $6,200,000 START 01/19/23
Address 409 30th St BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 2798 sqft LOT 1754 PRICE $5,000,000 $PSF $1,787 DOM 14 DOM START $ $5,000,000 START 01/17/23
Address 4016 The Strand BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 3578 sqft LOT 3493 PRICE $8,750,000 $PSF $2,446 DOM 16 DOM START $ $8,750,000 START 01/17/23
Address 441 26th Street BD/BA 6br/7ba SQFT 5972 sqft LOT 3514 PRICE $8,395,000 $PSF $1,406 DOM 20 DOM START $ $8,395,000 START 01/13/23
Address 3608 The Strand 1 BD/BA 2br/3ba SQFT 1777 sqft LOT 9334 PRICE $5,700,000 $PSF $3,208 DOM 42 DOM START $ $7,300,000 START 11/25/22
Address 750 29th Street BD/BA 6br/8ba SQFT 4835 sqft LOT 4803 PRICE $6,299,000 $PSF $1,303 DOM 49 DOM START $ $6,299,000 START 12/15/22
Address 413 9th Street BD/BA 6br/5ba SQFT 3800 sqft LOT 2695 PRICE $6,995,000 $PSF $1,841 DOM 56 DOM START $ $7,000,000 START 10/20/22
Address 400 10th Street BD/BA 4br/3ba SQFT 2964 sqft LOT 2711 PRICE $4,695,000 $PSF $1,584 DOM 66 DOM START $ $4,695,000 START 11/28/22
Address 2701 Manhattan Avenue BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2356 sqft LOT 2556 PRICE $4,650,000 $PSF $1,974 DOM 72 DOM START $ $5,250,000 START 11/22/22
Address 324 31st Street BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2317 sqft LOT 1810 PRICE $3,999,999 $PSF $1,726 DOM 79 DOM START $ $3,999,999 START 10/20/22
Address 616 12th Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 4300 sqft LOT 3008 PRICE $7,329,000 $PSF $1,704 DOM 99 DOM START $ $7,349,000 START 10/26/22
Address 124 4th Street BD/BA 5br/3ba SQFT 2363 sqft LOT 2697 PRICE $6,000,000 $PSF $2,539 DOM 105 DOM START $ $6,000,000 START 10/20/22
Address 1408 The Strand BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4517 sqft LOT 2983 PRICE $18,250,000 $PSF $4,040 DOM 119 DOM START $ $18,250,000 START 10/06/22
Address 3312 Palm BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 3599 sqft LOT 4633 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $1,306 DOM 124 DOM START $ $4,699,000 START 04/08/22
Address 2522 The Strand BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2660 sqft LOT 3498 PRICE $8,500,000 $PSF $3,195 DOM 127 DOM START $ $8,900,000 START 09/28/22
Address 4406 The Strand BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 2138 sqft LOT 3506 PRICE $4,895,000 $PSF $2,290 DOM 127 DOM START $ $5,249,000 START 09/28/22
Address 124 2nd Street BD/BA 3br/2ba SQFT 1750 sqft LOT 2707 PRICE $6,395,000 $PSF $3,654 DOM 155 DOM START $ $6,875,000 START 08/31/22
Address 500 N Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 5br/8ba SQFT 8389 sqft LOT 10128 PRICE $22,000,000 $PSF $2,622 DOM 174 DOM START $ $22,000,000 START 08/12/22
Address 2605 Vista Drive BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2678 sqft LOT 3496 PRICE $4,499,000 $PSF $1,680 DOM 183 DOM START $ $4,699,000 START 08/03/22
Address 1908 The Strand BD/BA 3br/3ba SQFT 1733 sqft LOT 3314 PRICE $14,395,000 $PSF $8,306 DOM 191 DOM START $ $14,395,000 START 07/26/22
Address 200 S Poinsettia Avenue BD/BA 6br/6ba SQFT 5061 sqft LOT 6256 PRICE $7,500,000 $PSF $1,482 DOM 275 DOM START $ $7,999,999 START 04/27/22
Address 901 28th Street BD/BA 6br/8ba SQFT 5648 sqft LOT 6006 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $1,062 DOM 301 DOM START $ $6,249,000 START 04/07/22
Address 845 11th Street BD/BA 6br/5ba SQFT 4315 sqft LOT 9938 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $1,390 DOM 318 DOM START $ $7,000,000 START 03/17/22
Address 235 N Dianthus Street BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 5152 sqft LOT 6501 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $1,164 DOM 350 DOM START $ $8,000,000 START 02/17/22

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