Inventory Is 'Top-Heavy,' But 2020 Has More Higher-End Sales

By Dave Fratello | July 22nd, 2020

There's no doubt that the Manhattan Beach real estate market is busy now.

We were struck, though, to see that the vast majority of inventory for sale is priced well above the current median price.

Specifically, 73% of homes active on the market as of July 21 were priced at $2.500M or above. (Out of 131 active listings.)

This includes quite nearly half the inventory being priced over $3.500M.

The median price for sold homes in Manhattan Beach as of June 30 was $2.475M. (That's for 12 months leading to June 30.)

An observation like this raises the obvious question of whether there's "too much" higher-end inventory. Or, perhaps (?) the median price is poised for an incredible breakout when a bunch of those higher-priced homes all sell.

Historically, higher-priced homes simply won't sell at the same pace and the median will likely end up fairly steady.

You can see that in today's pending sales totals. (There are 77 pending sales.)

Take a moment to compare the colored slices in the pie charts. While 49% of active inventory is in green ($3.5M+), only 25% of pending sales are.

Meantime, the balance (basically 3/4ths) of the homes in escrow are below $3.5M.

But don't give up yet on the idea of the median price jumping.

Only 37% of homes in escrow are $2.5M or below. That number "should" be closer to 50%. Otherwise, $2.475M isn't going to stay the median. Not for long.

The single biggest slice of the pending pie (mmmm, pending pie...) is the 36% priced between $2.5M-$3.5M. Simply put, that price range is where the action is.

So we've looked at where we are, where we're going... Where have we been?

In 2020 to date, closed sales look more like a market with the median price near $2.500M.

Check out those slices again. See how perfectly the bottom half of the chart - sold homes of $2.499M or below - hits exactly 50%.

That's how you know the median is $2.500M.

(Nerdy note: We calculate the median based on a full 12 months, in this case leading up to June 30, 2020. This chart shows only homes sold Jan. 1-July 21, 2020. Still, they match!)

Head back up to the top again. Basically half of today's inventory is priced over $3.500M, but you see that among sales to date, only 28% were sold for more than $3.500M.

Still, there is one bit of news in this data regarding higher-priced home sales.

In prior posts here at MBC, we've analyzed this phenomenon of the disconnect between high-priced inventory and actual sales. (For instance, this May 2019 post.)

We had shown that the percentage of home sales over $3.5M has been growing steadily in recent years, as prices rose.

The years 2017-2019 were pretty consistent, with 20-21% of sales at this higher price point.

Year to date, however, here in the COVID-19 market, Manhattan Beach has a steeper share of sales at the higher end, 28% among closings Jan. 1-July 21. Wow.

Remember, we have 25% of pending sales in that $3.5M+ price range. That's somewhat consistent, and also above the ~20% average of closings over $3.5M in the past few years.

Neither figure is near 50%, the share of inventory over $3.5M, but maybe something's up this year... the appetite for higher-end Manhattan Beach homes.

--------------------------------------------------------

Below, enjoy a look at the latest $3.5M+ listings in Manhattan Beach. (At the time this post went live, there were 64 active; we can only display 48 within this blog post. Email subscribers will need to view this post online to see the listings.)

Newest Manhattan Beach Home Listings Priced $3.5M+

ADDRESS BD/BA SQFT LOT PRICE $PSF DOM START $ START
Address 509 Marine Avenue BD/BA 6br/5ba SQFT 4179 sqft LOT 3709 PRICE $4,399,000 $PSF $1,053 DOM 0 DOM START $ $4,399,000 START 04/20/21
Address 117 Crest Drive BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 2520 sqft LOT 1666 PRICE $4,950,000 $PSF $1,964 DOM 0 DOM START $ $4,950,000 START 03/30/21
Address 1412 Laurel Avenue BD/BA 6br/5ba SQFT 5700 sqft LOT 5432 PRICE $6,999,000 $PSF $1,228 DOM 1 DOM START $ $6,999,000 START 04/19/21
Address 218 1st Place BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 2012 sqft LOT 2703 PRICE $3,680,000 $PSF $1,829 DOM 1 DOM START $ $3,680,000 START 04/12/21
Address 2408 Pine Avenue BD/BA 4br/3ba SQFT 3176 sqft LOT 4482 PRICE $3,749,000 $PSF $1,180 DOM 1 DOM START $ $3,749,000 START 04/15/21
Address 2408 Highland Avenue BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3153 sqft LOT 3495 PRICE $3,995,000 $PSF $1,267 DOM 1 DOM START $ $3,995,000 START 03/24/21
Address 3416 The Strand BD/BA 5br/5ba SQFT 3934 sqft LOT 3494 PRICE $11,500,000 $PSF $2,923 DOM 1 DOM START $ $11,500,000 START 01/28/21
Address 1023 1st Street BD/BA 2br/1ba SQFT 1325 sqft LOT 7595 PRICE $4,250,000 $PSF $3,208 DOM 2 DOM START $ $4,250,000 START 03/24/21
Address 919 1st Street BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 2700 sqft LOT 8599 PRICE $8,300,000 $PSF $3,074 DOM 3 DOM START $ $8,300,000 START 03/25/21
Address 508 The Strand BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 3963 sqft LOT 3337 PRICE $19,900,000 $PSF $5,021 DOM 3 DOM START $ $19,900,000 START 03/18/21
Address 2305 Bayview Drive BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 2570 sqft LOT 3496 PRICE $4,199,000 $PSF $1,634 DOM 4 DOM START $ $4,199,000 START 04/16/21
Address 937 8th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5151 sqft LOT 7200 PRICE $6,999,000 $PSF $1,359 DOM 6 DOM START $ $6,999,000 START 04/09/21
Address 129 38th Street BD/BA 6br/9ba SQFT 3720 sqft LOT 2701 PRICE $4,475,000 $PSF $1,203 DOM 7 DOM START $ $4,475,000 START 02/05/21
Address 121 15th Street BD/BA 3br/4ba SQFT 1900 sqft LOT 0 PRICE $4,500,000 $PSF $2,368 DOM 8 DOM START $ $4,500,000 START 02/24/21
Address 1516 The Strand BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 4953 sqft LOT 3330 PRICE $17,900,000 $PSF $3,614 DOM 8 DOM START $ $17,900,000 START 02/16/21
Address 2415 Manhattan Avenue BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 4275 sqft LOT 2705 PRICE $12,000,000 $PSF $2,807 DOM 13 DOM START $ $12,000,000 START 04/07/21
Address 516 21st Street BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 3540 sqft LOT 3772 PRICE $5,350,000 $PSF $1,511 DOM 16 DOM START $ $5,350,000 START 04/01/21
Address 825 Highview Avenue BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4709 sqft LOT 5346 PRICE $10,195,000 $PSF $2,165 DOM 16 DOM START $ $10,195,000 START 03/03/21
Address 1137 6th Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4665 sqft LOT 7492 PRICE $4,899,000 $PSF $1,050 DOM 17 DOM START $ $4,899,000 START 04/02/21
Address 228 29th Street BD/BA 1br/1ba SQFT 893 sqft LOT 2251 PRICE $3,500,000 $PSF $3,919 DOM 17 DOM START $ $3,500,000 START 03/05/21
Address 220 8th Street BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 4195 sqft LOT 2709 PRICE $10,000,000 $PSF $2,384 DOM 19 DOM START $ $10,000,000 START 03/22/21
Address 216 7th Street BD/BA 4br/6ba SQFT 4800 sqft LOT 2702 PRICE $9,650,000 $PSF $2,010 DOM 20 DOM START $ $9,650,000 START 03/25/21
Address 220 13th Street BD/BA 7br/6ba SQFT 3275 sqft LOT 2673 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $1,435 DOM 20 DOM START $ $4,875,000 START 01/24/21
Address 1816 Walnut Avenue BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3136 sqft LOT 4480 PRICE $3,595,000 $PSF $1,146 DOM 21 DOM START $ $3,595,000 START 02/01/21
Address 549 3rd Street BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 4000 sqft LOT 2692 PRICE $4,950,000 $PSF $1,238 DOM 24 DOM START $ $4,950,000 START 03/15/21
Address 457 30th Street BD/BA 5br/4ba SQFT 3562 sqft LOT 2703 PRICE $4,670,000 $PSF $1,311 DOM 32 DOM START $ $4,390,000 START 03/17/21
Address 417 34th Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4300 sqft LOT 2699 PRICE $3,999,999 $PSF $930 DOM 36 DOM START $ $3,999,999 START 02/12/21
Address 3412 Walnut Avenue BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 3560 sqft LOT 4588 PRICE $3,999,000 $PSF $1,123 DOM 59 DOM START $ $4,250,000 START 02/19/21
Address 3201 Maple Avenue BD/BA 2br/1ba SQFT 1056 sqft LOT 9261 PRICE $3,800,000 $PSF $3,598 DOM 60 DOM START $ $3,800,000 START 02/01/21
Address 2615 Palm Avenue BD/BA 4br/4ba SQFT 3260 sqft LOT 4643 PRICE $4,395,000 $PSF $1,348 DOM 115 DOM START $ $4,395,000 START 12/04/20
Address 2316 The Strand BD/BA 6br/7ba SQFT 5715 sqft LOT 3503 PRICE $16,500,000 $PSF $2,887 DOM 118 DOM START $ $17,500,000 START 11/25/20
Address 865 3rd Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4372 sqft LOT 5700 PRICE $5,599,000 $PSF $1,281 DOM 159 DOM START $ $5,999,000 START 11/10/20
Address 4117 The Strand (aka Ocean Dr) Drive BD/BA 5br/3ba SQFT 2804 sqft LOT 3500 PRICE $5,999,000 $PSF $2,139 DOM 193 DOM START $ $5,999,000 START 09/18/20
Address 421 1st Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4081 sqft LOT 2710 PRICE $3,999,999 $PSF $980 DOM 210 DOM START $ $4,500,000 START 09/22/20
Address 224 32nd Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4367 sqft LOT 2698 PRICE $6,999,997 $PSF $1,603 DOM 272 DOM START $ $7,499,000 START 07/17/20
Address 592 30th Street BD/BA 5br/7ba SQFT 4648 sqft LOT 4804 PRICE $4,699,000 $PSF $1,011 DOM 280 DOM START $ $4,699,000 START 06/05/20
Address 429 31st Street BD/BA 4br/5ba SQFT 4246 sqft LOT 2705 PRICE $3,699,000 $PSF $871 DOM 298 DOM START $ $3,799,000 START 06/24/20
Address 201 15th Street BD/BA 6br/3ba SQFT 2093 sqft LOT 2701 PRICE $4,289,000 $PSF $2,049 DOM 312 DOM START $ $4,550,000 START 04/22/20
Address 200 15th Street BD/BA 7br/6ba SQFT 3084 sqft LOT 2844 PRICE $4,689,000 $PSF $1,520 DOM 312 DOM START $ $4,950,000 START 04/22/20
Address 2615 Crest Drive BD/BA 3br/5ba SQFT 3216 sqft LOT 1752 PRICE $5,999,999 $PSF $1,866 DOM 332 DOM START $ $6,499,000 START 05/01/20
Address 2016 Ocean Drive BD/BA 5br/6ba SQFT 5739 sqft LOT 2698 PRICE $14,000,000 $PSF $2,439 DOM 562 DOM START $ $14,000,000 START 09/09/19

Please see our blog disclaimer.

Latest Listings Among
Manhattan Beach Homes For Sale