Remember the quiet we were talking about last week? A near-blackout in new listings for early April?
That had an effect on overall inventory.
A little burst of sales and cancellations dropped
SFR inventory west of Sepulveda for the first time in a 2-week period this year.
This is clear at the end of this graph (click to enlarge)
and in the new MB Market Update Spreadsheets for 4/15/09 (download by clicking the link here, or at any time using the link in the upper-right corner of the front page).
The year 2009 began at 105
listings, we ended March at 155
SFRs, and the figure was down to 147
by mid-April. (At this writing, we're back to 151.)
The first part of April saw just 5
new listings, but 7
sales (new escrows) and 6
cancellations, for a total -8
hit on inventory.
For those of you wondering how our little poll/contest regarding new listings
last week wound up, we counted 7
new listings in the 7-day period Monday-Sunday, so the folks voting 5-8
new listings (29% of all)
were right.)So have we peaked for the year 2009?
Take a look at our chart above. Inventory began 2008 at 59
and climbed to 96
by the same point last year, growing at a steep clip before Spring became Summer.
However, that wasn't the end. Over the next 6 months, inventory grew by a net of 28
to an Oct. 15 peak of 124
Were we to see inventory of SFRs west of Hwy. 1 grow this year at the same pace, we'd be at a cool 200
by late September.
Of course, past results are no predictor of the future.
For now, we can say we've seen a little tapping on the brakes. Now here comes Summer, when everyone wants to be at the beach.