Our mid-month check-in here on the Manhattan Beach real estate market finds two seemingly conflicting data points.
First, the number of homes for sale on Aug. 15 was lower than at the same time in any of the prior 10 years, at just 53 listings.
By way of comparison, there were more than 100 listings in Manhattan Beach in mid-August each year from 2016-20. There were just 62 in both 2021 and waaaay back in 2013, and 63 at this time one year ago.
53 is a new ebb, but it is in line with and part of a chronic shortage of homes for sale in MB that really began two full years ago, around July 2021.
Did we say there were "conflicting data points?"
Yes, we were just getting to that.
Supply of homes is low. Odds are, if you're in the market, it's hard to find what you want.
So you might assume that even a shadow of "normal" demand from home buyers would mean that a fairly high share of available supply is being sold, and fast.
With tiny, choked inventory, we do have an ultra-low median Days on Market count of 11 days for homes that sell. In other words, most listings aren't even hitting two weeks on market.
But another market measure is paradoxically increasing, and suggesting a different kind of trend.
That measure is "months of supply," which attempts to gauge the pace of transactions versus the amount of available inventory.
Data through the end of July showed the months of supply at 3.4 months, which means that, hypothetically, at today's sales pace, it would take 3.4 months to sell everything that's now on the market.
This figure has been rising consistently since April 2022, and is now more than double its low point (1.5 months).
If there's a lot less inventory, but rising "months of supply," then demand is lagging, too.
We can't clearly articulate for you what this all means. We shake up our kaleidoscope, and we see conflicting data on market conditions:
- Fewer listings
- Low DOM
- Multiple offers at many price points
- Declining median price
- Most recent sales at or over asking price
- Rising "months of supply"
You can almost build any story you want from that list.
The most interesting aspect of rising months of supply is that it is a measure traditionally used to gauge the transition from a "sellers' market" to a "buyers' market."
Market slowdowns in mid-late 2016 and 2019 were associated with higher months of supply, as you can see above the dotted line in our chart just above. The calendar year 2019 saw our only annual drop in median home prices in a long time.
So the contradiction between low inventory and possible development of a "buyers' market" might be telling us what Fall and Winter could feel like in the local market.
Are buyers going to gain leverage, even while they have consistently fewer options of homes to buy?
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Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 8/15/23:
> 53 active listings as of 8/15/23 (-6 from 7/31/23)
> 42 SFRs (-6)
> 11 THs (Flat)
See the Inventory list as of 8/15/23 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.
Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:
> Tree Section: 12 actives (-1)
> Sand Section: 21 actives (+1)
> Hill Section: 10 actives (-1)
> East MB: 10 actives (-5)
We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.
Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.
Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 8/15/23".
Please see our blog disclaimer.
Listings presented above are supplied via the MLS and are brokered by a variety of agents and firms, not Dave Fratello or Edge Real Estate Agency, unless so stated with the listing. Images and links to properties above lead to a full MLS display of information, including home details, lot size, all photos, and listing broker and agent information and contact information.
