After months' worth of a historic ebb in local housing inventory, we finally had a relatively healthy supply by mid-September.
That was thanks in part to a post-Labor Day infusion that saw 20 new listings in less than 2 weeks.
We maintain our own database of Manhattan Beach market data going back more than 10 years (of course we do!), and there we see that June, July and August 2023 were the lowest-inventory years as far back as we can go, 2013.
Only as August became September did 2023's inventory level stop being the historic low.
As you'll see on our chart, by mid-September, 2023's inventory was only 5th-lowest in recent history.
That's right, we're finally seeing inventory now that's higher than it was at the same time in each of the past two inventory-challenged years, and also higher than in the hot-hot-hot market of 2013-14, when the shelves were constantly cleared of available homes.
This recent burst may or may not be a trend. The same basic dynamics are still at work in the local market. Higher interest rates have "frozen" many owners into their current homes and 3%-or-less mortgages.
The easiest explanation for the recent run of new listings is seasonality. If possible, you try to avoid listing in Summer, and save it for after Labor Day. The real question is, how many more homes are waiting in the wings to list this year?
Did you notice the apparent "pattern" in 2013-15, and how it almost appears to be mirrored in 2021-23?
Hmmmmmm... Last time we saw this low level of inventory, gently rising back up year over year, there followed 5 years of higher inventory – 4 years that were much higher.
In a year that's starved for sales, because we're starved for inventory, the salespersons among you/among us may look at that chart with some sense of hope.
It would appear that we are "due" for an inventory correction – substantially more homes for sale next year – but there's no way to know when it will actually appear.
The demand side is still playing catch-up, as we saw a very low number of new escrows (8) in the first half of September. "Normal" has been about twice that over the years.
We're going to give buyers time to make their position known.
One thing remains true to this day: Since early April 2023, all of our agents in the Edge office have the same experience, whether listing or offering on properties, there are always multiple offers. True throughout the South Bay as well as other parts of SoCal where we've worked.
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Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 9/15/23:
> 69 active listings as of 9/15/23 (+9 from 8/31/23)
> 51 SFRs (+3)
> 18 THs (+6)
See the Inventory list as of 9/15/23 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.
Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:
> Tree Section: 22 actives (+5)
> Sand Section: 24 actives (-2)
> Hill Section: 11 actives (+2)
> East MB: 12 actives (+2)
We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.
Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.
Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 9/15/23".
Please see our blog disclaimer.
Listings presented above are supplied via the MLS and are brokered by a variety of agents and firms, not Dave Fratello or Edge Real Estate Agency, unless so stated with the listing. Images and links to properties above lead to a full MLS display of information, including home details, lot size, all photos, and listing broker and agent information and contact information.
