MB Market Update for 10/31/19

By Dave Fratello | November 5th, 2019

Something impossible happened with inventory in the second half of October.

Not only did we go under 100 for the first time in a long time (to 99), it was a drop of... ready?...

A drop of 30 listings from our mid-October report!

Where did all these listings go, you ask? Maybe everyone just quit because it was getting late in the year?

No!

It was Rocktober in Manhattan Beach.

It didn't just seem busy in the local real estate market in October. It was.

The full month of October 2019 saw 47 new purchase contracts begun during its 31 days with homes in the Manhattan Beach market, considerably more than in recent years, and +7 over the recent high in 2014.

We keep trying to tell people this period from Labor Day to early November is our second-busiest in MB. This year that came true with a flourish.

We called attention to this trend just last week in "Even Challenged Listings Are Selling."

It is something of a seasonal phenomenon: As November and the holidays approach, sellers are best advised to either take the best deal on the table, or get their home off the market till the next year.

It's just that this year, eager buyers and willing sellers were doing their deals at a better pace than we've seen during these boom years.

Nerdy note/vital caveat: Our analysis shows 47 new deals from this October, but includes mostly pending escrows. Some might not work out into closed sales, if they fall out of escrow. However, all of the prior comparative years reflect data only from closed sales.

So, we're using real-time data that could change, up against locked-down data that never will.

Also, we'll note these data are hand-crafted from exported MLS data (via CRMLS). No service provided the numbers, we ran them and checked them here at MBC.

We can revisit these numbers later. Still, it is clearly a hopeful sign that this year wasn't equal to, or lower than, other years.

Alert Reader Bonus

If you're reading our nerdy notes, you'll probably appreciate a first look at MBC's detailed data report on the first 3 quarters of real estate activity in Manhattan Beach.

We'll be promoting our report with more fanfare soon, but you can see it right now here: Click to view the MB report.

Hint: Our report on Q1-Q3 2019 didn't predict anything like the October rush that has just concluded.

It's our most ambitious such report ever. It's free.

If you're not yet registered on MB Confidential, you'll just need to supply basic registration info. If you're already a member, you'll just need to tick a box to access the report.

Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 10/31/19:

  • 99 active listings as of 10/15/19 (-30 from 10/15/19) 
  • 74 SFRs (-24)
  • 25 THs (-6)

See the Inventory list as of 10/31/19 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.

Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:

  • Tree Section: 18 actives (-5)
  • Sand Section: 47 actives (-19)
  • Hill Section:11 actives (-11)
  • East MB: 23 (-3)

We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.

Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.

Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 10/31/19.

Please see our blog disclaimer.

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