MB Market Update for 2/28/19

By Dave Fratello | March 5th, 2019

Because we queued up a topic with some data the other day, we need to update this first.

We noted that total dollar volume, meaning the added-up prices of all homes sold in Manhattan Beach, for Jan.-Feb. 2018 was $104.8M on 40 sales.

The question was how 2019 might stack up against that. We now see that for Jan.-Feb. 2019, we finished at $102.8M on 38 closed sales - slightly better than we were showing in that post.

It's the smallest dip from last year, but only the third year ever that Manhattan Beach recorded $100M in sales in January/February, as our chart here makes clear.

Wait, what's that?

Something in 2019 is better than in 2017? That recent "sugar high" boom year?

Yes indeed.

This year, 12 of the 38 sales were above the median price of $2.400M from calendar year 2018.

In Jan./Feb. 2018, 18 of 40 sales were above the median price set the prior year, 2017 ($2.349M).

2105 Agnes Road Manhattan Beach CAThis year, 6 closed sales were over $4M, while only 4 sales were over $4M in 2018. (One was 2105 Agnes at $5.400M, pictured here.)

What we're saying here is that MB is not showing obvious signs of slowing early this year.

While January-February is not a very reliable period of time to measure closed sales, it's still something concrete we can use to compare. (Sales that close in January and February typically began as deals made at slow times of year, like December-January.)

In this period, MB is performing better than the South Bay as a whole.

The sales pace is down 11% from Jan.-Feb. 2018 for the 3 beach cities plus Palos Verdes. The pace is down 7% year-over-year when you add in Torrance data.

Being down just 2 sales from 2018, MB is down 5% this year. (Very small sample size.)

Where we're hearing open worries of a market slowdown comes from data on pending sales, rather than closed sales. Fewer new contracts now will mean fewer sales later. But we're not sure we're seeing that in Manhattan Beach, either.

In just this 2-week period of the last part of February, 14 homes went into escrow. True, in the same part of 2018, 20 homes went into escrow. This is still a small sample size, though, so let's see how trends actually develop for the Spring sales season.

We'll call attention to one more closed sale from this period that stands out.

653 13th Street Manhattan Beach CA653 13th (4br/6ba, 3375 sqft.) is new construction in the South Martyrs Hill area very close to downtown.

Zoning was changed in the area a number of years ago to allow 3-story development more along the lines of Sand Section development, even though the district is Tree Section.

For whatever reason, actual new development hitting those new standards has been slow to creep into the area and transform it. But this one was ready, and there are more coming.

New new new... people want new.

This one came out at $4.495M and sold higher at $4.542M.

Inventory temporarily hit 100 listings right before we closed our data for this report, then a listing went into escrow and we ended up at 99.

Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 2/28/19:

  • 99 active listings as of 2/28/19 (+8 from 2/15/19) 
  • 76 SFRs (+9)
  • 23 THs (-1)

See the Inventory list as of 2/28/19 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.

Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:

  • Tree Section: 28 actives (+4)
  • Sand Section: 42 actives (+6)
  • Hill Section:8 actives (+2)
  • East MB: 25 (-4)

We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.

Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.

Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 2/28/19."

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