MB Median Prices Rocket Up 14%

By Dave Fratello | October 29th, 2013

Proving once again that median prices are a lagging indicator, now nearly 2 years after a rally began in Manhattan Beach real estate, the data are starting to show a rapid rise in local home prices.

We began to see the uptick in median home prices at the midyear point. (See our post, "MB Median Prices Finally Rising.")

Now, as we look at data for the first 3 quarters of 2013, the price spike is clearly evident. (We made that part of the line "glow" just for emphasis.)

The YTD median price for SFRs citywide is $1,725,000, a remarkable 14% jump year-over-year.

This is on sales volume identical to the totals turned in for 2011 and 2012, with 264 sales citywise this year and last. (Yes, inventory has remained low, but sales are typically speedy and we now see, as we have before, that sales volume is steady.)

We're showing you 5 years' worth of data, but these are mainly the "bottom" years followed by the start of the recovery.

You're wondering, of course, how a median price of $1.725M compares to peak years of the previous bubble.

For 2007, the median price for the same time period (Jan. 1-Sept. 30) was $1.765M. For 2006, it was $1.795M. Those were the peak years, with 2005 lagging quite a bit behind at about $1.6M.

So 2013 has very nearly hit the median price peak seen at they height of the last cycle. And many indicators suggest that this rally is not yet over.

Looking west of Sepulveda only, as is our wont, we see the same kinds of trends.

Sales volume is about the same as the prior 2 years for this period (Q1-Q3), and the median price has rocketed.

Last year around this time, you saw a median price of $1.639M for SFRs west of the highway.

Now: $1.875M, also a jump of 14% year over year, exactly in line with the rise in prices citywide.

This high west-of-Sepulveda median price completely matches the comparable 2006 figure (also $1.875M) and falls somewhat short of the peak for the first 3 quarters, the $1.930M hit in 2007.

So, you see, there's still something left to aspire to.

All things being somewhat equal going forward, the logical projection is that this time next year, we'll be talking about new peaks.

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