Sales Dropped, But What's Next? [Report Excerpt]

By Dave Fratello | November 26th, 2019

It has been more than 3 years since the rolling count of home sales in Manhattan Beach was as low as it was by the end of Q3 2019, according to MLS data.

There were 372 closed sales in Manhattan Beach from Oct. 1, 2018-Sept. 30, 2019. The last time such a 12-month total was lower was in July 2016.

Immediately following that dip in Summer 2016, though, a quickening of the sales pace led to 12 months of steady growth. Good story, right?

The figure peaked at 443 sales in the 12 months leading to July 30, 2017.

These data come out of our new (free!), comprehensive MB Market Report.

The numbers pose an interesting question about what's next for Manhattan Beach.

There's no doubt that the past year, leading up to our Q3 data, has seen a mixed bag. The 4th quarter of 2018 was slow, partly due to a (temporary) interest rate spike. Then, Q1 2019 was 2nd-best of the past 5 years. June and July, however, were dreadfully off pace, with 60 sales compared to 102 last year and 100 in 2017.

You can see the downward slide in sales toward the right edge of our chart.

But now, as we "speak," October seems to have seen the local market roar to life.

You can't judge much from the slower holiday season months, so we're going to be drumming our collective fingers on the tabletops here, wondering what 2020 really holds.

Are we bouncing back now from the (unexplained) slowdown that the market crept to by the end of Q3?

Or might we get stuck in a malaise that sees the sales pace further drop before the market bounces back?

Our MB Market Report does not predict the future.

But it's a great way to examine trends of all kinds from many angles.

Here's a summary graphic from our conclusions chapter. (Login required.)

One by one, each part of the report breaks down extensive data, often section-by-section within MB, so you can see how your area, or target area, are doing... and have done, historically.

Much of the data goes back to 2008-09.

Enjoy your Turkey Day, and take some time, when you can, to look through the whole report.

(If you're not yet registered on MB Confidential, you'll just need to supply basic registration info. If you're already a member, you'll just need to tick a box to access the report.)

We'll be back here on the blog just after the holiday. Cheers!


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