MB Market Update for 2/1/17

By Dave Fratello | February 1st, 2017

The months and days leading up the Super Bowl are, for real estate geeks, a little bit like wandering in the desert, but also knowing for sure that there's an oasis just over that last sand dune.

Whether you're tracking the market, working in it, or getting ready to jump in, this is the time of year when things promise to get interesting. The market's "kickoff" comes just after the Super Bowl wraps up.

We're busy at MBC HQ for sure, having closed a sale around Christmas, put a couple more homes into escrow in the New Year, promoting a couple of listings (including off-market) and trying oh-so-hard on behalf of our loyal buyer clients to find just the right match. But from here, it's only supposed to get busier.

Let's check in on the MB market so far this year. (Remember, our newest updates are always linked from the "DATA" menu at the top of the page.)

This is our second MB Market Update of 2017, showing slightly increased inventory again at 74 (about 10 over this time last year).

The Sand Section commonly has the most listings at this time of year, and it's true again. The 32 actives are up by 5 listings over last year.

Take a look at our last deep dive into inventory data to see how inventory ballooned in 2016 ("MB Inventory by Area, 2013-2016"). There's no guarantee of spikes like that this year, but if we do have the "normal" amount of new listings stacking up on top of the substantial overhang, it could be a very good environment for buyers.  

February and March, though, are the time for sellers to feel that buoyant sense of possibility – and hope the feeling is mutual. 

A few notable sales from the second half of January:

1405 Oak Avenue Manhattan Beach CA1405 Oak (4br/4ba, 2950 sqft.) just reached the pinnacle of Tree Section sales on Oak, with a pre-completion sale of this new construction home at $2.790M.

That's just $10K short of the very recently closed top sale for Oak Ave., the very similar new construction home at 2001 Oak (5br/5ba, 3150 sqft.) at $2.800M, a home that's larger by 200 sqft. inside and on a larger lot (by almost 300 sqft.). 

By PPSF, 1405 Oak beats all rivals, with a $946/PSF figure. 2001 Oak was at $889/PSF.

The only other Oak sale above the low $2.2M range was another new construction home, 1817 Oak (5br/6ba, 3120 sqft.) at $2.699M in 2015. But clearly things have begun to change in a big way.

653 27th Street Manhattan Beach CAAlso in the Trees, on a really nice block at 653 27th, we see a lot sale that's just closed at $1.650M.

That seems a very decent number, in line with some other recent sales, but also possibly a sign that Tree Section land values have ceased escalating. That's a hypothesis, and of course someone's going to want to argue it, but we'll return to the theme in the future.

You know where prices aren't all that mellow right now? 

The beach.

216 4th Street Manhattan Beach CAAn off-market sale of a half-lot on a walkstreet at 216 4th posted at $2.900M.

Well that's big(ly?), but it continues a trend. 

Take Bayview a little further up toward downtown, and you'll find a smaller lot that just sold off-market for a comparable number, much higher PPSF for the dirt. More on that one soon.

Last, quick mention: The first sale of any kind to close in the Hill Section in 2 months just came through: a 5800 sqft. lot sale on the non-view side of the hill at 868 9th, which posted at $2.150M.

Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 2/1/17:

  • 74 active listings as of 1/15/17 (+2 from 1/15/17)
  • 63 SFRs (+1)
  • 11 THs (+1)

See the inventory list as of 2/1/17 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.

Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:

  • Tree Section: 14 actives (-4)
  • Sand Section: 32 actives (+8)
  • Hill Section: 10 actives (same)
  • East MB: 18 actives (+2)

We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.

Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.

Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 2/1/17."

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