MB Market Update for 7/15/16

By Dave Fratello | July 19th, 2016

It has been a while since we spoke specifically here on the blog to inventory levels. Let's try showing, before telling:

We had to adjust the top end of the scale (again) to make room for the recent-record number hit in mid-July: 133 homes for sale in Manhattan Beach. (After we closed data for this report, inventory temporarily hit 135.) 

One year prior, there were 71 homes for sale. So this year, while it's not double that level, it's close: 87% higher.

But there is a brighter side here. The sales pace is no longer lagging badly from what was seen in prior years.

In early April, just after the first quarter of 2016 closed, we published "Fewest Sales in 5 Years," showing, with data, that sales were trailing 7% behind recent years if we looked only at Q1, but a more concerning 19% behind the 2015 pace looking at 6-month periods year-over-year.

Now look at the Q1+Q2 data, and you see that 2016 actually beat 2015:

You see that there were 8 more sales closed from Jan. 1-June 30 this year as opposed to the same period of 2015, as we ended with 184 sales. That's still off the pace of the recent go-go years of 2013-14, but it's a nice bounceback in Q2 of 2016. 

The 12-month sales figures in our chart are drawn from the periods of July 1 of the prior year through June 30 of the year stated in the chart, i.e., the number of sales for 12 months leading up to June 30 each year. By that measure, yes, 2016 is off by 6% from the full year prior, and 10% below the year before that, but neither figure counts as a radical slowdown. (Did anyone panic – or even notice – when the sales pace July-to-June dropped from 2013-14? No, everyone was too busy with multiple offers over asking price.)

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is what we call "mixed signals." The market would appear to be changing right in front of our eyes, but the data don't tell only one story. 

Yes, buyers have become more patient. Sellers often have to take less than they expected. But people aren't staying away from Manhattan Beach real estate purchases.

We've often floated an idea here: More inventory should equal more sales. There was so much pent-up demand and there were so few options for so long, you could imagine that more sales would happen if only there were more to buy. Perhaps that's coming to pass?

It's no picnic out there as a seller. But it's not impossible.

Put it in bold type: More buyers have bought homes in Manhattan Beach this year than last year.

Doesn't that say something?

Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 7/15/16:

  • 133 active listings as of 7/15/16 (+2 from 7/1/16)
  • 116 SFRs (+2)
  • 17 THs (same)

See the inventory list as of 7/15/16 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.

Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:

  • Tree Section34 actives (+1)
  • Sand Section44 actives (-4)
  • Hill Section13 actives (-1)
  • East MB: 42 actives (+5)

We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.

Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.

Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 7/15/16."


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