Spring's Intriguing Signs

Now there's more evidence that February 2010 is not going to feel much like February 2009.

Now we see not just a noteworthy bounceback in demand, the first buyers of the Spring Selling Season diving in.

We see not just a few quick sales. (MBC first noted a few "impressive" quick sales in "Quickies in the Trees" earlier this month.)

Now we are seeing quick sales on new listings that don't even seem particularly well-priced.

For perspective, let's recall that February 2009 saw 14 new escrows open among SFRs west of Sepulveda, by MBC's count. (See the MB Market Update for 2/28/09.) In February 2008, the sales pace was exactly the same.

This year, we're already up to at least 18, with most of a week left in this short, fairly hot month.

Among the more surprising deals (click any highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin):

The standout head-scratcher so far has to be 2708 Pacific (5br/4ba, 3400 sq. ft.), an early-90s home on a busy street that launched at $1.849m early this month. That was a price, MBC noted, near what new construction in comparable parts of the Trees was fetching recently – even a bit higher.

The home has been gracefully updated and showed well. Still, we would not have been surprised to see 100+ DOM and a closed price near $1.6m.

Instead, the sellers had a deal within 10 days – and early deals rarely involve big discounts. [UPDATE: 2 days after this story posted, 2708 Pacific fell out of escrow and returned to market at $1.777m.]

A newer home (2003 build) at 1900 Walnut is hardly the same kind of surprise, but it's always impressive to see a home hit the market and sell pretty much immediately, as is the case here. It hit the market at $2.029m, which seems to have been just fine with the buyers.

Yes, that would be a $2m+ resale of an average-size home (5br/4ba, 3150 sq. ft.) right here, early in 2010. Maybe not a shock, but definitely worth a double-take.

The location and corner lot are both clear draws for Walnut. The tasteful, shingled Cape Cod has the nice extra of a walk-up façade and entry along 19th rather than the garage-faced design most Tree Section homes are forced to use on their narrow lots.

Points of comparison: Across Walnut, new construction at 1901 Walnut (same size, 5br/5ba, 3150 sq. ft.) closed last February for $2.150m. Meanwhile, 1900 Walnut itself was purchased for $1.550m in May 2003.

432 9th (4br/3ba, 2650 sq. ft.) also joined the quick-sale club in the last few days. The surprise here is – again – the price.

432 9th launched at $2.699m, more than $100/PSF higher than a close comp from last May. That looked to be pushing the ceiling a bit, and that pricing strategy can succeed only when there's a lot of "must-have" emotion flowing.

The comp from last year was 408 9th, quite nearby, and also similarly sized (4br/3ba, 2400 sq. ft.) and nicely remodeled. 408 fetched $2.175m, a big step (more than $500k) below the $2.7m sought this year by 432 9th.

Did we say something about "must-have" emotion? It swirled around here, and a deal within 10 days at 432 9th, with multiple offers, could be viewed as a bullish sign all over the flat walkstreets.

For instance, the deal is clearly good news for 405 9th, a lot sale on the sunnier north side of the block, which is clearly too optimistic at $2.3m, but suddenly doesn't look as far out of line as it did a week ago.

Much the same might be said of plenty of new listings that will be trying to figure out the magic behind the quick Spring success stories around town.